Is the stock market going to tank?

**rideit** · 03-19-2020, 02:51 PM

Anyone have thoughts on a quick in and out with Dollar Tree/Family dollar?
I am thinking about it if they aren’t crippled with supply issues...EVERYONE who is unemployed will be shopping there...

**4matic** · 03-19-2020, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Anyone have thoughts on a quick in and out with Dollar Tree/Family dollar?
I am thinking about it if they aren’t crippled with supply issues...EVERYONE who is unemployed will be shopping there...

Define quick?

**Ted Striker** · 03-19-2020, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by dunfree

Even businesses that are doing well now near me (so pretty much only grocery stores and liquor stores) are cutting hourly employee hours and using salaried staff/owners to stock, clerk, checkout.

We're getting a weird trend here. People are just walking away from work. The foreman on a dozen house development said today that about a third of his guys are in the wind. They've been so busy for years that they're just saying fuck it.

The grocery store near my house has a sign that says "immediate" employment opportunities.

**SKIP IN7RO** · 03-19-2020, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Anyone have thoughts on a quick in and out with Dollar Tree/Family dollar?
I am thinking about it if they aren’t crippled with supply issues...EVERYONE who is unemployed will be shopping there...

Our Dollar General has been fine, but it's a small town. I would recommend going early in the day like opening time to 9am to avoid crowds.

**3213256479+8** · 03-19-2020, 03:39 PM

Originally Posted by Mazderati

Well, the opening was fun anyway.

The indexes just. can't. bounce. Half a dozen attempts the past few days and still nothing.

**dunfree** · 03-19-2020, 04:16 PM

Originally Posted by Ted Striker

We're getting a weird trend here. People are just walking away from work. The foreman on a dozen house development said today that about a third of his guys are in the wind. They've been so busy for years that they're just saying fuck it.

The grocery store near my house has a sign that says "immediate" employment opportunities.

non-local/marginal employees bailing to go back home or live with family? Dunno.

California had 40k unemployment apps on Monday, and 80k on Tuesday https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ffs-california Minnesota has 30k between those two days. 20k in MA on Monday. 170k in 3 states.

**iceman** · 03-19-2020, 04:42 PM

Originally Posted by dunfree

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ffs-california

Man. 3 million jobs lost with a 1.25% contraction? If that's true we have a big problem, since I think 1.25% is conservative. Gut-based not evidence-based reaction, but still.

**jackstraw** · 03-19-2020, 05:11 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

Man. 3 million jobs lost with a 1.25% contraction? If that's true we have a big problem, since I think 1.25% is conservative. Gut-based not evidence-based reaction, but still.

We definitely have a big problem.

Many small companies at "ground zero" are on the verge of bankruptcy right now and after the lag it will hit almost every other industry. This really sucks.

**rideit** · 03-19-2020, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by SKIP IN7RO

Our Dollar General has been fine, but it's a small town. I would recommend going early in the day like opening time to 9am to avoid crowds.

Right, but that’s not my point. Point is, everyone in the service sector will be broke soon here, and shopping there out of financial necessity. Might take a few weeks.

**rideit** · 03-19-2020, 05:15 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Define quick?

Three months?

**Name Redacted** · 03-19-2020, 05:18 PM

Originally Posted by jackstraw

We definitely have a big problem.

Many small companies at "ground zero" are on the verge of bankruptcy right now and after the lag it will hit almost every other industry. This really sucks.

Many? I know business owners from Dentists to brewery owners who are all just on life support and are going to die quickly if some drastic measures aren't taken.

What businesses are not hurting right now? ER docs?

**rideit** · 03-19-2020, 05:22 PM

Originally Posted by Name Redacted

What businesses are not hurting right now? ER docs?

Well, it’s not like they work on commission...

**jackstraw** · 03-19-2020, 05:32 PM

Originally Posted by Name Redacted

What businesses are not hurting right now? ER docs?

Every business is scared for what's to come, but most businesses are fine at the moment.

Construction is still moving forward unless the town, county, or city is on a shelter in place. Obviously grocery stores and fucking Amazon. Engineers are still working. A lot of things take time to develop and implement...those have not necessarily stopped. Especially fed and state funded.

Again, the lag...then shit hits the fan. But hopefully this ends sooner than later.

**Mazderati** · 03-19-2020, 05:36 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Well, it’s not like they work on commission...

Some do. Maybe most in some capacity related to Medicare payouts. Not that I'd want that job right now.

**SKIP IN7RO** · 03-19-2020, 05:38 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Right, but that’s not my point. Point is, everyone in the service sector will be broke soon here, and shopping there out of financial necessity. Might take a few weeks.

Let me woosh myself. I thought this was the Rat Flu thread. I will take a lap.

**yeahman** · 03-19-2020, 05:59 PM

Originally Posted by SKIP IN7RO

Let me woosh myself. I thought this was the Rat Flu thread. I will take a lap.

Ha, you gave me a good laugh though. I thought you were being sarcastic lol.

Originally Posted by jackstraw

But hopefully this ends sooner than later.

It will.

**dunfree** · 03-19-2020, 06:03 PM

Originally Posted by Name Redacted

What businesses are not hurting right now? ER docs?

Neighbors (er docs) have paired back spending.....

to be positive- Mnuchin at least grasps the fucking problem. The senate? Not so much

**dunfree** · 03-19-2020, 06:06 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Right, but that’s not my point. Point is, everyone in the service sector will be broke soon here, and shopping there out of financial necessity. Might take a few weeks.

is everyone there that strapped for cash? Grocery/Walmart makes the $ go further if you’ve a few more $ to invest and one nearby

**Benny Profane** · 03-19-2020, 06:09 PM

Originally Posted by Name Redacted

I am now the only employee where I work. That's kinda weird. No pressure or anything.

C

**Benny Profane** · 03-19-2020, 06:10 PM

Originally Posted by Name Redacted

Many? I know business owners from Dentists to brewery owners who are all just on life support and are going to die quickly if some drastic measures aren't taken.

What businesses are not hurting right now? ER docs?

With battle pay.

**4matic** · 03-19-2020, 06:11 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Three months?

Up $5 today. Sure, buy a pullback and use fresh low as a stop.

I’m not a big fan of that type speculation. What’s your risk reward? $20 up vs $5 down?

**Benny Profane** · 03-19-2020, 06:17 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Well, it’s not like they work on commission...

I spent some time in a V.A. hospital Monday and Tuesday driving my buddy for his cataracts operation. The whole place was shutting down from elective to war footing. It dawned on me that there is a massive hospital/doctor contract arrangement that is just shutting down a huge transfer of money in the medical industry, and they can't scam this virus thing, but, somebody will try, for sure. Anyway, that has to be a ton of 10% money in metro areas just shutting down to nothing. So, I guess they're happy their local restaurant is closed.

**dunfree** · 03-19-2020, 06:33 PM

630k claims in 15 states.... so far.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/19/upshot/coronavirus-jobless-claims-states.html

faaaccck

if you in dc ice, deals on whiskey
https://www.washingtonian.com/2020/0...y-collections/

edit: vampire squid is at 2.25 estimated

**Benny Profane** · 03-19-2020, 06:52 PM

For all those that mock Chinese transparency:

"In an email sent Wednesday, the Labor Department instructed state officials to only “provide information using generalities to describe claims levels (very high, large increase)” until the department releases the total number of national claims next Thursday.

The email, which was shared with The New York Times, noted that the reports were monitored closely by financial markets and should therefore remain embargoed. “States should not provide numeric values to the public,” wrote Gay Gilbert, the administrator of the department’s Office of Employment Insurance.

Ms. Gilbert has worked at the Labor Department under presidents of both parties, and there has been no indication that she was urged by political appointees to make the request. But President Trump has privately expressed irritation at the dire predictions of some of his advisers, most notably when Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told lawmakers that unemployment could reach 20 percent this year.

Some states that received the guidance from Ms. Gilbert found it disturbing. It prompted at least one governor’s office, which shared the message on the condition of anonymity, to seek an opinion from the state attorney general about whether they had to temporarily withhold the information.

In another state, lawmakers got a preview of the staggering numbers that are being withheld for the moment. In a private conference call Thursday with elected officials and union leaders, a top Pennsylvania labor official was blunt about the depth of the economic crisis, according to someone on the call.

Robert O’Brien, the state’s deputy secretary of labor and industry, said the government had been overwhelmed by a flood of unemployment insurance claims — 180,000 just in the last few days. He said that was far more than the state usually gets in a whole month.

The situation may be even more dire in Washington, the first epicenter of the contagion in the U.S. State officials there would only say they are seeing an “even more dramatic increase this week” after unemployment claims soared 150 percent last week from the week before.

The federal numbers released Thursday morning were already alarming: 281,000 people nationwide applied for unemployment insurance last week, up from 211,000 the previous week. They were apparently only a grim preview of what is to come."