Is the stock market going to tank?

[iceman]

Weimar Republic.

[mcsquared]

How do I go long on sweatpants and internet porn?

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[Cono Este]

Continuing my asset allocation updates. My retirement portfolio is currently-

-35% in equities (Vanguard Growth Index Admiral, Vangaurd Total International, Vanguard Total Stock Market. My stupid 401k only offers Vanguard Growth)
-22% in Long Term Bonds (Vangaurd Long-Term Treasury Index Admiral)
-32% in Intertmediate Term Bonds (Vangaurd Total Bond Market- I wish i could move more to long term and intermediate term treasury bonds to escape exposure to corporate bonds, but this is what my 401k offers)
-11% in Gold (IAU, GLD- will probably move to either SGOL or GLDM for the Swiss gold or low expense ratio)

I'm contemplating moving about 7.5% into commodities. While demand is down, I think that commodities will go up in the mid term since so many producers are shuttering mines, etc right now. I kind of like a broad basket commodity play as a hedge against inflation.

A couple months ago I was 90% equities, 10% intermediate bonds.

I've also got cash reserves in a multi year emergency fund equal to 72% of my retirement portfolio. I'm contemplating putting some of that into this psuedo "All Weather" portfolio asset allocation, but may hold on to see if opportunities arise in the real estate market.

I like my 7/12 portfolio. You might want to check that out if your looking to add commodities. Sort like a permanent portfolio.

http://www.7twelveportfolio.com


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[Name Redacted]

How do I go long on sweatpants and internet porn?

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Read somewhere that the sales of "Top wear" like shirts, ties, etc was disproportionate to pants, shoes and socks now because everyone is working from home and video conferencing, so they were only dressing up half way.

I'm going to develop an all-in-one wardrobe of suit jacket, tie, and shirt that one can just throw on whenever they have a video conference. It'll be backless and just have elastic straps on the back to ensure ventilation.

Scheduled to appear on Shark Tanks next week. $500B valuation. Who wants in on the ground floor?

[El Chupacabra]

Read somewhere that the sales of "Top wear" like shirts, ties, etc was disproportionate to pants, shoes and socks now because everyone is working from home and video conferencing, so they were only dressing up half way.

I'm going to develop an all-in-one wardrobe of suit jacket, tie, and shirt that one can just throw on whenever they have a video conference. It'll be backless and just have elastic straps on the back to ensure ventilation.

Scheduled to appear on Shark Tanks next week. $500B valuation. Who wants in on the ground floor?

Just use a shitty cam and you can get away with a tuxedo T shirt.

[Benny Profane]

He can't even do wartime industrial management right. What a fuck up.

Inside G.M.’s Race to Build Ventilators, Before Trump’s Attack https://nyti.ms/2UrMys3

[liv2ski]

This sounds grim:

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) March 30, 2020

FED: Third of Americans will be unemployed…
KEY POINTS

The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections.
There are nearly 67 million Americans working in jobs that are at a high risk of layoffs, according to the analysis.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said last week that the initial estimates are grim but the plunge should be short-lived.

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal Reserve estimate.

Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/...gaining-steam/

[iceman]

^^ follow that back to the original article and you come to this gem:

"During a CNBC interview last week, [St. Louis Fed Chief] Bullard said the jobless number “will be unparalleled, but don’t get discouraged. This is a special quarter, and once the virus goes away and if we play our cards right and keep everything intact, then everyone will go back to work and everything will be fine.”

Everything will be fine! Awesomesauce.

[dunfree]

This sounds grim:

— Jordan Schachtel (@JordanSchachtel) March 30, 2020

FED: Third of Americans will be unemployed…
KEY POINTS

The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections.
There are nearly 67 million Americans working in jobs that are at a high risk of layoffs, according to the analysis.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said last week that the initial estimates are grim but the plunge should be short-lived.

Millions of Americans already have lost their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis and the worst of the damage is yet to come, according to a Federal Reserve estimate.

Economists at the Fed’s St. Louis district project total employment reductions of 47 million, which would translate to a 32.1% unemployment rate, according to a recent analysis of how bad things could get.
https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/...gaining-steam/

Over the 14-day stretch, that means that the state received an average of more than 17,000 claims every day for the last two weeks. In the past two weeks, DEED has received more unemployment insurance applications than it did for the entire year of 2019.

DEED statistics show that Minnesota had nearly 3 million people employed in February. The filings in the last 14 days would account for 8 percent of the state’s workforce. Last week, the state reported an unemployment rate of 3.1 percent. The new filings will likely push the state’s unemployment rate above 10 percent.

http://tcbmag.com/news/articles/2020...last-two-weeks
in two weeks

urgh, that quote reply sucked. Anyways, MN employment now worse than Great Recession.

get Congress back to DC and tell those stupid grifting motherfuckers to get shit done. And someone put Trump and Jared in the Gulag.

[Benny Profane]

^^ follow that back to the original article and you come to this gem:

"During a CNBC interview last week, [St. Louis Fed Chief] Bullard said the jobless number “will be unparalleled, but don’t get discouraged. This is a special quarter, and once the virus goes away and if we play our cards right and keep everything intact, then everyone will go back to work and everything will be fine.”

Everything will be fine! Awesomesauce.

Spoken like somebody that prints money in his garage.

[neufox47]

Ugh.

https://slate.com/business/2020/03/c...mployment.html

Landlords are the last people who should ever get help. The asset is still there, who gives a shit if they have to sell it at a loss or the banks take it over.

My group at work is about to get super busy. Rest of the company not so much. Company just announced that our Cost of living raise (HR speak “merit increase” - here’s your 2%) is cancelled company wide. I feel like putting in a compensation change for everyone of my people at 10%. Better wait for us to start cranking out the cash before I get that bold.

[Benny Profane]

If we come out of this like some expect, you'll get an effective 10% or even more raise if you just keep your job. Shits going to be a lot cheaper soon.

[Ted Striker]

Saw this tidbit this morning

The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was signed into law by President Trump on March 27. Companies that borrow from the federal government will be unable to pay dividends for a year after the loans have been repaid in full.

[GeezerSteve]

Saw this tidbit this morning
The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was signed into law by President Trump on March 27. Companies that borrow from the federal government will be unable to pay dividends for a year after the loans have been repaid in full.

Sorta. CARES Act loan borrowers cannot issue dividends or make other capital distributions "with respect to common stock" until loan is fully paid and for 12 months thereafter. The provision is in the same section that prohibits share buybacks (of borrower or borrower's subsidiaries) until loan is paid and for 12 months thereafter. The requirements must appear in the loan documents.

Restrictions for pass-thru entities (e.g., sub-S corps or LLCs) are more flexible and subject to negotiation in the loan documents.

[liv2ski]

Landlords are the last people who should ever get help. The asset is still there, who gives a shit if they have to sell it at a loss or the banks take it .

So all the landlord sell their rental properties and then what d****** where are all the tenants going to live are they suddenly going to be able to buy with their f*****-up credit?

[LHutz Esq]

Attachment 323020

If the Cheeto in Charge had understood Keynes - the US would be In A far better place to weather the storm. Instead it was full gas, deficits, tax relief, pressure to lower interest rates when the economy was already ticking along at basically full employment. Interest rates now have no where to go, the unemployed don’t pay taxes, can only safely print so much cash.


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[Platinum Pete]

What do you all expect to happen to REITs over the next few months? Many commercial and residentials are not going to pay rent, one way or another, over the next 6 months. The value of the underlying assets are going to suffer.
What's the play?

[Toadman]

This is worth a perusal.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fi...of2&yptr=yahoo

“The murmurs from Moscow, Washington and Riyadh don’t seem to be hopeful as of yet, and the COVID19 pandemic seems likely to kill over 25 [million barrels a day of oil] demand for at least a couple of weeks—meaning an unused amount of oil on the order of 300 million barrels,” he told MarketWatch. “It would take over three quarter of a million barrels a day inventory draw to remove that overhang from the market.”

[Harvey44]

If the Cheeto in Charge had understood Keynes - the US would be In A far better place to weather the storm. Instead it was full gas, deficits, tax relief, pressure to lower interest rates when the economy was already ticking along at basically full employment. Interest rates now have no where to go, the unemployed don’t pay taxes, can only safely print so much cash.

Yeah that is pretty basic Econ 101. I think he actually does understand it but doesn't give a fuck.

Oddly I'm finding today's 400 point drop reassuring.

[SkiCougar]

Yeah that is pretty basic Econ 101. I think he actually does understand it but doesn't give a fuck.

Oddly I'm finding today's 400 point drop reassuring.

next resistance is 2700, but has failed to get over 2630 three days in a row; that may be it for the relief rally. with gas at $20 and all job stories are layoffs and shutdowns; continuing to rally doesn't seem likely.

[cantspin]

Is the reason for the crazy sharp correction the internet age? Idk wtf is going on but looks gnarly


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[SkiCougar]

Is the reason for the crazy sharp correction the internet age? Idk wtf is going on but looks gnarly


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internet and computer age. most buying and selling is done by computers; the average person selling because it dropped 1000 points doesn't add up to much; just too few people vs. sales done by computers today.

[mud]

[bennymac]

hahahaha....haha.....ha.....oh man yeah we r fcked

[Benny Profane]

Trump tonight talking about his wishes for a 2 trillion dollar infrastructure bill, which both Republicans and Dems are working on at about 750 billion.