Is the stock market going to tank?

[Hott Butt Mud]

I bought Intel last week and will hold for a while.

I did a nice little short sell on TQQQ this week. $$!!

My shit stocks this year are Kroger and CVS.

Also bought more GOOGL today ahead of earnings. Wish I would have just bet some $$ on META today before the close.

[Dantheman]

Was someone quoting 5% on CDs somewhere earlier in this thread? If so, where were you buying them?

I don't see much benefit in a 4.5-5% CD when fully liquid online savings accounts are paying 4.2-4.5%.

[Kevo]

Was someone quoting 5% on CDs somewhere earlier in this thread? If so, where were you buying them?

https://www.depositaccounts.com/cd/

I'm contemplating starting a CD ladder again. Short version of the idea is to buy CDs in smaller chunks so if you need access to money you can break one CD at a time.

Longer version is that you can stagger the start dates, but it doesn't really matter that much.

[BobMc]

Most of the FAANG stocks all went up today, especially after hours sympathetic with META. I think the market was priced in for a weak earnings report season. Seems most companies have delivered a beat and the market has been responding. Powell’s .25 didn’t hurt, but one has to wonder whether the acknowledgement of future rate hikes won’t hurt in a bit. (Seems sometimes the market is a bit slow to digest news.)

I wish I’d bought more FAANG’s, (and AMD) but here we are.

I’m getting murdered on my SOFI call, it’s a theoretical loss but it still stings, selling at $6.84 when I could’ve got $7.45. I’m in my 200 shares at $11.86, so this call will come at a loss. Still have another couple days so we’ll see… I did manage to sell my XOM call and bought it back netting $8.68. (Free lunch)

Energy is down so I’m out on selling calls, everything else I want is up so selling puts is also out.

I’ve just been buying the easy ones lately, going forward it may take a bit more work.

[Yonder_River]

I don't see much benefit in a 4.5-5% CD when fully liquid online savings accounts are paying 4.2-4.5%.

Interesting, didn't know that. That's impressive!

Kevo, I like that ladder method, may try it.

[MCS5280]

Where were you when the fed officially pivoted? I was on the toilet at work.

[Brock Landers]

Most of the FAANG stocks all went up today, especially after hours sympathetic with META. I think the market was priced in for a weak earnings report season. Seems most companies have delivered a beat and the market has been responding. Powell’s .25 didn’t hurt, but one has to wonder whether the acknowledgement of future rate hikes won’t hurt in a bit. (Seems sometimes the market is a bit slow to digest news.).

Market was priced for 25bps and continued hawkish rhetoric from Powell. They got the 25, no big deal. But the press conference language actually acknowledged that inflation is really going in tue right direction. Sure they started it off with the generic “inflation still higher than where we want it”…but everything else had the stink of a fed that may not hike another 2+ times.

Decreasing the amount of hikes/terminal fed funds is bullish for stocks- investors know higher rates will push the economy into a deeper recession eventually. But it may not be that bad if Fed doesn’t go overboard (I think it’s too late). So the news- or the stink- that the fed could pause, great for stocks, especially high growth stocks like FAANG, who’s valuation is based on long term earnings growth…higher discount rates hit this discounted earnings valuation harder. So when the news- or stink- is for lower rates, good for stocks, better for growth stocks, great for high growth (high valuation) stocks.

Plus Meta is buying back $40b in stock. That helps.

[sirbumpsalot]

I think they went down. I picked up a 6-month CD at 4.85% APY last month. It's a Wells Fargo CD, but I purchased through my Brokerage acct at Fidelity.

26 week Tbills have been auctioning similar and are state tax free. Noise for the low tax states, but significant for CA/OR types of 10%+.

[JimmyCarter]

[mtndave]

26 week Tbills have been auctioning similar and are state tax free. Noise for the low tax states, but significant for CA/OR types of 10%+.

Is there any advantage buying T-Bills thru a brokerage, like Vanguard in a traditional IRA?

[sirbumpsalot]

Is there any advantage buying T-Bills thru a brokerage, like Vanguard in a traditional IRA?

The advantage would be that you don't have to move your money around. If its in your bank account, use Treasury.gov (they pull-push directly and automatically)....if the money is in your brokerage, set it up like a trade....assuming of course your brokerage doesn't charge a commission (most don't)

The only disadvantage is that I couldn't find any way to automatically renew/roll at maturity to next bill that Treasury direct allows. Not as liquid as a "sweep", but splitting into portions over the 4 weeks of the 4 week bills allows constant available cash weekly to deploy to equities if needed.

Edit: Buying in an IRA doesn't take advantage of the state tax efficiency if that is something that concerns you.

[CarlMega]

26 week Tbills have been auctioning similar and are state tax free. Noise for the low tax states, but significant for CA/OR types of 10%+.

After dipping my toe in w/ the I-bonds, I figured I'd try the 26-week Tbills as an alternative to shopping CDs. Obviously I'm no bond expert, but the rate/discount was competitive and easy-peasy to place the order. Seems to be about as safe as possible for a known return.

[sirbumpsalot]

After dipping my toe in w/ the I-bonds, I figured I'd try the 26-week Tbills as an alternative to shopping CDs. Obviously I'm no bond expert, but the rate/discount was competitive and easy-peasy to place the order. Seems to be about as safe as possible for a known return.

I think someone earlier mentioned there could be a hiccup if the debt ceiling isn't raised around the june/july maturities. Not that it won't get paid...just could be a delay...but who knows - politicians will cave last minute after all the posturing I am sure. If rates are peaking, might be time to lock in a longer term 1-2yr bill for income portion of portfolio.

[CarlMega]

^yup. If we don't pay treasuries, I think that's a collapse that even my regular accounts would suffer - start hording antibiotics, ammo and canned goods. Not money I need in any foreseeable future - just want to see if I can get better rate than my money market holdings. Everyone is paying out much better, I think I made about 1G in Jan on interest bearing money and most of my stuff is low compared to what's out there. I need to shuffle it up for better yield.

[4matic]

My “all in” portfolio from last April/May went in the black today. Up 1.25%. Long road that clearly could have been managed better; happy with the mix. Yields 6.25%. Pays roughly .5% a month. I take the dividends in cash and distribute 90% for income. In order of allocation:

FMSDX
BOND
PDI
EMB
JEPI

BOND is the crappiest of the lot but the yield is up 30% and creep to par should really help as the year goes on.

I’d consider selling BOND and EMB at some point but not for a while.

If AAPL turns up tomorrow and NFP friendly, hang on to your hat.

[4matic]

You all looking for short term income can check out JPST.

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-...ares-46641q837

Invests primarily in a diversified portfolio of short-term, investment-grade fixed- and floating-rate corporate and structured debt while actively managing credit and duration exposure.
Targets portfolio duration of less than one year; duration as of 9/30/22 was 0.27 years.

[Hott Butt Mud]

^^^
I recently bought JEPI. The dividend income on that is intriguing, but it's just part of my overall diversification.

I'm no LeeLau. Just a gaper, trader kook over here, but happy to see some gains this month like the rest of you.

Seems like this could be the beginnings of a bull market year and not a quick fake out upswing like we've been dealing with.

[JimmyCarter]

^^^

Seems like this could be the beginnings of a bull market year and not a quick fake out upswing like we've been dealing with.

Googl and amzn both down in after hours after disappointing earnings

[4matic]

^^^
I recently bought JEPI. The dividend income on that is intriguing, but it's just part of my overall diversification.

I’m afraid it’s over owned which might skew the strategy. I can’t imagine how many contracts they have to sell to pay out the stated dividend and could be part of the vix compression.

I have around 8% of assets in it. It’s generally been a good sentiment indicator.

[4matic]

Googl and amzn both down in after hours after disappointing earnings

Tomorrow will be interesting for these stocks on top of NFP. If they turn higher hang on to your hat.

[BobMc]

GOOGL, AMZN, and AAPL were all up for the day even after their postmarket losses. It seemed to be a mixture of missed EPS or revenue targets. Most of the guidance seemed positive, I wouldn’t be surprised on an upswing tomorrow.

I set put options for JEPI and for good measure DIVO, (thanks for the ideas) each OTM and a couple bucks of added premiums. I set a put on F as well, closer to the money and not looking for a lot of premium. It’s set to take advantage of the in line dividend of .15 and the special dividend of .65. Plus, I kinda like the company to do well in the EV area.

I’m regretting buying back all my energy calls, but that’s the way it is. I’m still a believer of taking that sure money.

[Cono Este]

^^^
I recently bought JEPI. The dividend income on that is intriguing, but it's just part of my overall diversification.

I'm no LeeLau. Just a gaper, trader kook over here, but happy to see some gains this month like the rest of you.

Seems like this could be the beginnings of a bull market year and not a quick fake out upswing like we've been dealing with.

jEPi is a buy write fund. Same as shorting a put. You collect premium if it sits, lose on underlying if it goes down, and are capped on the upside if the mkt rises too fast.

It’s a synthetic short put.

If I was building a truly diversified portfolio I’d put 20% into it. Making money when the mkt goes sideways is a diversification.

[4matic]

2.5 year low in nat gas futures.

[Brock Landers]

Holy shit 517k jobs report. Fed has the ammo to keep raising rates in march if they want it.

[4matic]

It’s good news all around. Higher participation will mitigate wage inflation and demand will support earnings.

While I’d like the capital appreciation of lower interest rates, not spiking lower extends duration of higher income. It should be good for junk bonds.