Results 16,976 to 17,000 of 18222
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11-18-2022, 09:51 AM #16976Registered User
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- Nov 2011
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- Missoula
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- 415
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11-18-2022, 10:01 AM #16977
I don’t think putting a floor on price was a wise idea. If Ukraine resolves prices will collapse.
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11-18-2022, 10:02 AM #16978
Future supply chain stress nonexistent per November @KansasCityFed Index … outlook for supplier delivery times has crashed to lowest on record
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11-18-2022, 10:07 AM #16979Registered User
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- Nov 2011
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- Missoula
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- 415
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11-18-2022, 10:17 AM #16980
WTI price has pivoted around $50 for a couple decades. It wasn’t that long ago you couldn’t give it away.
Those points you made are not new. US and China trending toward more EV use. Less consumption. Random data points are just that.
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11-18-2022, 10:28 AM #16981Registered User
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- Nov 2011
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- Missoula
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Sure, but it sounds like you're saying that global demand has peaked? Not seeing that assertion anywhere else. Most forecasts I've read still have world demand increasing as more of the worlds poor move towards middle income. India is another big one.
EVs are great, but still seems like we need to front-load a ton of oil to get there. Mining trucks all run on diesel for example. If you're that certain of a price collapse do you have a big bet set up for that direction? What's your forecast for global demand in 2025 for example and why? With data.
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11-18-2022, 10:47 AM #16982
Is the stock market going to tank?
That’s the thing about chart analysis. It’s not science. My view of the chart says $50
Here’s some data points though:
Shipping rates collapsed. Ships sitting idle. Major source of diesel demand
FedEx and ups grounded planes. More diesel.
I suppose the hard deadline on sanctions next month could offer some support.
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11-18-2022, 10:49 AM #16983
Is the stock market going to tank?
If future demand is a known known, why is price near a 52 week low? Down almost 50% from its high. What’s another $25 to $50?
Especially after a 10% correction in DXY. If the dollar strengthens again, more pressure on prices
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11-18-2022, 10:55 AM #16984
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11-18-2022, 10:56 AM #16985
One more point..
Price is lower than when OPEC cut production. All the political hand wringing was just that.
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11-18-2022, 11:00 AM #16986
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11-18-2022, 11:03 AM #16987
Fed should use QT to tighten policy from here. It’s more important to roll off the balance sheet. If they weaken demand too much they won’t be able to sell bonds. That said, Fed overtightening is related to that. Advertising for buyers.
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11-18-2022, 11:15 AM #16988
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11-18-2022, 11:20 AM #16989
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11-18-2022, 11:22 AM #16990
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11-18-2022, 11:30 AM #16991
What do you want? A medal?
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11-18-2022, 11:32 AM #16992
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11-18-2022, 12:17 PM #16993Rod9301
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
- Location
- Squaw valley
- Posts
- 4,673
Oil price has gone in every recession. So if you believe there's a recession coming, then you should believe oil will go down.
Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
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11-18-2022, 12:23 PM #16994
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11-18-2022, 01:10 PM #16995
Oil prices are going down in large part because commodity shortages are always followed by a glut. See also lithium and lithium-ion batteries, for example. There have been lots of famous bets won using this this principle over the years made at time when commodity prices were high.
The most important markets when it comes to inflation are labor markets. It's the price -> wage -> price spiral that matters. With that in mind, it will be a Fed win if they manage to get inflation down to bellow 4% in the next year or so.
There are obviously a range of possibilities/probabilities and one of those, the one I think most likely at the moment, is an end to letting inflation run and an end to historically low interest rates.
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11-18-2022, 09:07 PM #16996Decisions Decisions
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11-18-2022, 10:26 PM #16997
Ok, we both acknowledge the Fed can lower inflation by causing a recession and higher unemployment. So the bet is whether the Fed can lower inflation and at the same time manage a 'soft landing' by this time next year.
I'll take the bet if you make it 12-mo CPI and to be fair it's a push if core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023. So I win if both core and CPI are greater than 3%, you win if both are below 3%, and it's a push if only one or the other is under 3%.
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11-18-2022, 10:39 PM #16998
Not really much risk on that bet since CPI using current rent prices instead of the lagged prices used in official CPI already shows inflation under 3%:
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/stat...NQR_Apz8JU8Iqg
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11-18-2022, 10:47 PM #16999
Yeah, that's a good sign but it remains to be seen whether lower rents are a trend or seasonal. TBH this isn't a bet I'd mind losing. And if on the other hand I'm right then TIPS are currently underpriced. It's also rare historically for inflation to come down really fast so if it happens this time it would be an outlier.
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11-18-2022, 10:57 PM #17000
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