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  1. #16676
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    May 2006
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    Someone explain to me the gloom here about *actual* Treasury Bills, Bonds & Notes? Am I misunderstanding?

    Virtually guaranteed and at an appreciable return for the first time in a while.

  2. #16677
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    Dec 2010
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    The problem is the Fed is trapped (1) is loosing credibility (2) and cannot fix supply chains (3). At some point the risk premium will jump or the Fed will be trapped like the Japanese and European CB's as the only buyer of the shit paper. You and I will pay a much bigger spread than the Govies too.

    The entire bond market has lost 1/5 of its value and the train is only starting to pull away from the station. The bubble is in the bonds folks and shitty unprofitable companies with far-flung multiples based on new make believe metrics and a future that may never come.

    Many Pro's have been mega wrong (fiduciary or not). Many Joe's are stuck and more have no idea what they are doing but believe in paying as little as possible for fees and that will be the least of their worries when this is done...Hmm how is that low expense ratio fund doing now? It Does not matter if you are down more than 10%. I keep my fees and my clients low and I watch drawdown more closely than most.

    I repeat...YOU CANNOT HOLD A BOND FUND THINKING IT WILL RECOVER HERE UNLESS THEY HAVE LANGUAGE IN THE PROSPECTUS THAT ALLOWS THEM TO BUY BONDS TRADING UNDER PAR.
    THOSE ARE MOSTLY HIGH YIELD BONDS (JUNK) and probably should be avoided as well.

  3. #16678
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarlMega View Post
    Someone explain to me the gloom here about *actual* Treasury Bills, Bonds & Notes? Am I misunderstanding?

    Virtually guaranteed and at an appreciable return for the first time in a while.
    If you own Treasuries with low rates you're either stuck with them and the low yeild or you can sell them at a discount that raises the yield to the present higher yield for the buyer. Idealy, you want to buy Treasuries when yields are high and then sell when the yield is lower so you are paid a premium for the higher yield.
    Why anyone would buy low yielding Treasuries is beyond me, hence why the FED may be the buyer of last resort at some point.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  4. #16679
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarlMega View Post
    Someone explain to me the gloom here about *actual* Treasury Bills, Bonds & Notes? Am I misunderstanding?

    Virtually guaranteed and at an appreciable return for the first time in a while.
    In 20 words or less if my last rant went over your head...
    Given that all associated living costs are multiplying, business will take a very long time to return to “normal.”

  5. #16680
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    Jan 2008
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarlMega View Post
    Someone explain to me the gloom here about *actual* Treasury Bills, Bonds & Notes? Am I misunderstanding?

    Virtually guaranteed and at an appreciable return for the first time in a while.
    yah, I dont really get it, ive been stoked on my bond contributions, and I'm excited ill get to buy some more at a good rate for a bit longer too.

  6. #16681
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    May 2006
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    If you own Treasuries with low rates you're either stuck with them and the low yeild or you can sell them at a discount that raises the yield to the present higher yield for the buyer. Idealy, you want to buy Treasuries when yields are high and then sell when the yield is lower so you are paid a premium for the higher yield.
    Why anyone would buy low yielding Treasuries is beyond me, hence why the FED may be the buyer of last resort at some point.
    Gotcha. I guess I'm viewing this differently as in 'would a treasury security buy now be a useful investment?'. Not a fund, eft, company bond - an actual treasury bill, note, bond. Hold to maturity - take your face value without plans for the 2ndary market. Reliable return in a volatile landscape.

    But I think ppl are saying that the trader crowd that has T-notes/bonds at like 2% are in the crapper since we are approaching 5% yield - zero 2ndary market for those.

  7. #16682
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    When rates double from here I am sure you will feel the same

  8. #16683
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    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    When rates double from here I am sure you will feel the same
    Timing? I can battle FOMO - the enemy of all investments, no?

  9. #16684
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    Quote Originally Posted by NakedShorts View Post
    We can get a bounce but WE MUST HOLD THE LINE
    June 17 - Called the bounce!
    Trust me yet?

  10. #16685
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    Dec 2016
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    In a van... down by the river
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    OK, Nostradumbass.


  11. #16686
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    Dec 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by liv2ski View Post
    Cono, so what do you think? The 10 year close to 5% once the FED is done?
    Yes, I think that’s safe. May go alot higher though. I’m not a bond trader, but a lot of the same principles apply.

    The sell off in treasuries the last 6 months must be up there in all time most painful in history. Someone has to be seriously hurting. I talk a lot of gloom and doom, but really need a catalyst like Bear Stearns implosion to really send us in the crapper.

    With the trillions lost on treasury paper, I’d have to guess if we have a catalyst, it’s going to be on treasuries on someone’s sheets.

  12. #16687
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarlMega View Post
    Gotcha. I guess I'm viewing this differently as in 'would a treasury security buy now be a useful investment?'. Not a fund, eft, company bond - an actual treasury bill, note, bond. Hold to maturity - take your face value without plans for the 2ndary market. Reliable return in a volatile landscape.

    But I think ppl are saying that the trader crowd that has T-notes/bonds at like 2% are in the crapper since we are approaching 5% yield - zero 2ndary market for those.
    Bonds are one of the few mkts that are still totally rigged. Buy a bond a day after it’s issued and you can lookup the cusip #. and see two fuckers scalped it before you. So with bonds I think it’s worth paying for good management, but only in seperate accounts. As in you actually have the bond in your own portfolio. Mutual funds you do not really have the control to hold it to maturity and recoup your principle. BOND is down from 115 to 90 this fucking yr!

    I use treasury direct. You can buy at auction twice a month I think.

  13. #16688
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    Apr 2006
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    Collectively, we went from "everything is priced in" and "history shows it's profitable to buy at the beginning of a war" and "it's a good time to jump into bonds (in June)" to "we're headed for a depression" in this thread. Guess it'll be a good time to buy equities soon.

  14. #16689
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    Mar 2006
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    19,224

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    I bought bonds in various forms from April through June. Down a solid 7%+ after payouts. Overall yield is also around 7% now. I don’t like it but as long as they pay what’s the problem? I don’t have to sell anything and portfolio yield and payout continues to rise.

    Strong dollar has hurt me as much as rates with 15% global diversity.

  15. #16690
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    Def no problem, and you had some good reasoning.

    In general, this whole thread has me convinced that it's basically impossible to know what's going to happen.

    I'm of the opinion that we're headed for major economic upheaval but I have a general misanthropic disposition that clouds my judgment during good times.

    I also have no idea if said economic upheaval will play out with serious inflation or with deflation. I'm personally hoping for the latter. Asset prices got too high and we (Fed and Federal Government) were backstopping people taking crazy risks.

    It's also entirely possible that everything will be fine, just like JBarronddjong says.

  16. #16691
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    Aug 2006
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    The problem ultimately lies that governments and big business benefit from inflation. Debt gets cheaper and profits go higher.

    Deflation on the other hand is a cruel mistress.
    Live Free or Die

  17. #16692
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    2,605
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Def no problem, and you had some good reasoning.

    In general, this whole thread has me convinced that it's basically impossible to know what's going to happen.

    I'm of the opinion that we're headed for major economic upheaval but I have a general misanthropic disposition that clouds my judgment during good times.

    I also have no idea if said economic upheaval will play out with serious inflation or with deflation. I'm personally hoping for the latter. Asset prices got too high and we (Fed and Federal Government) were backstopping people taking crazy risks.

    It's also entirely possible that everything will be fine, just like JBarronddjong says.
    Hey now, I don’t think I’ve said everything *will* be fine, more like ‘things may be fine’ or ‘it’s not inevitable that everything will go to shit’.

    Predictions are hard, especially about the future.

    I’ve personally become more pessimistic that the Fed is over correcting and will lead us into a recession if they stay on their current path, but I did see that at this time last year their path was for 0% rates at end of 2022 and they obviously changed that, so hopefully they’ll be just as quick to change in the opposite direction.

    Meanwhile, seems like NakedShorts is still concerned that we’ll have too much inflation, so who the fuck knows… (though TIPS are still only pricing in 2.33% average over five years.)

  18. #16693
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    Dec 2008
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    754
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Strong dollar has hurt me as much as rates with 15% global diversity.
    I was worried a bit about my stonks until I looked at the exchange rate for NOK to USD (US citizen living in Norway, so earning in nok but investing in the US), and now i think I'll pretend money doesn't exist for awhile and buy a gravel bike or something rather than retire.

  19. #16694
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    Sep 2006
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    6,915
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Baltic index is pretty crazy.

    We fucked ourselves. That’s all I can say about the forthcoming economic collapse and depression. 20 yrs of terrible monetary policy.

    I have to imagine the bottom in treasuries has to really be something on a scale I’ve never seen in my adult life.
    I should clarify my earlier comment. These are spot market rates, and not contract rates. The contract rates for the 2022 season were negotiated in March/April when the rates were headed toward $20k. So, shippers like Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, etc, etc. are paying contract rates above probably $12k. These rates are predicated on certain volume commitments. Don't hit your volume commitment, pay a penalty. Though I suspect that shipping lines won't be too harsh with enforcing those penalties. Otherwise they will lose future business.

    However, it's very telling that imports have dropped off a cliff so suddenly.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  20. #16695
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    Oct 2006
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    Long bonds. What a time to be alive. I’ll take a 4% yield on treasuries and wait for inflation to roll over and/or (it will be and) the recession to hit.

    Might it go up a bit more? Yup. But winter is coming. And I’ll carry 4% while I wait.

    Still in short term high yield too. Maturity schedules don’t blow back out until 2025. Which means no debt (very little) is due until then.

    Feed me yield.
    Decisions Decisions

  21. #16696
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    Jan 2008
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    I finally figured out how to buy t-bills on Treasury Direct few weeks ago. credit union doesn't seem to be raising CD rates. Did 2 at six months and 1 one year. The 1 year auction is only 1/month. I think all just under 4%

  22. #16697
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    Apr 2006
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    How sketch is this bank of England shit? Seems wonky

  23. #16698
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    Mar 2008
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    They still haven't learned their lesson from the last 14 years of intervention

  24. #16699
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    Quote Originally Posted by byates1 View Post
    How sketch is this bank of England shit? Seems wonky
    The BoE or the new govt policy ? BoE actions pretty straightforward
    Decisions Decisions

  25. #16700
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    Oct 2003
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    The BoE or the new govt policy ? BoE actions pretty straightforward
    The latest UK government policy is less taxes/ more money for the moneyed class/ let the NHS collapse.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

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