Is the stock market going to tank?

**4matic** · 03-12-2020, 12:11 PM

Originally Posted by iceman

Can’t believe Cono went back in. What happened to the Trump Gap?

Time frames change

**4matic** · 03-12-2020, 12:15 PM

30y rate is still higher after fed steps in.

**ncskier** · 03-12-2020, 12:16 PM

My call is Dow 15000 and S&P 2000 ish
I still think the retail investor hasn't had a chance to digest what is going on. When school is cancelled and spring sports for kids, ESPN classic is the preferred channel for sports and domestic travel is limited, then we sniff a bottom. The Fed just unloaded a bazooka(credit to Paulson) and the market shrugged it off within minutes.

**Cono Este** · 03-12-2020, 12:29 PM

Originally Posted by ncskier

My call is Dow 15000 and S&P 2000 ish
I still think the retail investor hasn't had a chance to digest what is going on. When school is cancelled and spring sports for kids, ESPN classic is the preferred channel for sports and domestic travel is limited, then we sniff a bottom. The Fed just unloaded a bazooka(credit to Paulson) and the market shrugged it off within minutes.

It could definetly happen. The old pre 2008 range of 1300-1500 was very big and traded before, and after the crash.

I won’t have any bullets there though, you can’t pick the bottom. But when you look back at 2001-2003, and 2008, we blew through everything imaginable.

But to get that, I think you need a total breakdown of market structure. No one answering the phone. Money mkts trading below par.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

**4matic** · 03-12-2020, 01:23 PM

2018 low close was 2350ish. No big deal

Level 1 and 2 circuit breakers off now. 20% limit

**Cono Este** · 03-12-2020, 01:30 PM

Originally Posted by mahjul

SPX 1600 is a quite likely this month imo.

Could be

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

**Benny Profane** · 03-12-2020, 01:33 PM

All professional sports shutting down for various durations.

**Yonder_River** · 03-12-2020, 01:36 PM

Help a finance jong out. We are rather deep in stocks with our allocations (72%) but at least 20 years from retirement. Our financial advisor is very much into holding firm and not budging through the duration. I push back and then he warns me there are always ups and downs and we we can never time the market correctly. Yep, sounds like a typical advisor.

That being said should I stay firm and switch to cash and income generating funds until there is an inkling of hope? He says we'll just miss the uptick when it happens and lose out. Yeah, i know, no easy answers but im curious what the odds are most are holding fast in their allocations.

**4matic** · 03-12-2020, 01:41 PM

Originally Posted by Yonder_River

Help a finance jong out. We are rather deep in stocks with our allocations (72%) but at least 20 years from retirement. Our financial advisor is very much into holding firm and not budging through the duration. I push back and then he warns me there are always ups and downs and we we can never time the market correctly. Yep, sounds like a typical advisor.

That being said should I stay firm and switch to cash and income generating funds until there is an inkling of hope? He says we'll just miss the uptick when it happens and lose out. Yeah, i know, no easy answers but im curious what the odds are most are holding fast in their allocations.

There is no safe income generation other than cash. In fact, bond income might be more risky than dividend income at this point.

I can't comment on what to do with your particular asset allocation but with dividend re-investment it might be too late to re-balance

**up an down** · 03-12-2020, 01:41 PM

Originally Posted by mahjul

Assumptions:
- ERs in major city hospitals have to resort to war-time triage
- Corporate bankruptcies start
- Govt ineptitude is drilled into populace as at-risk loved ones fall victim to COVID
- Boomers pull the rip cord
- Total sentiment washout

Well....the Russell 3000 has erased it's entire Trump presidency (starting from Nov. 8 2016) gain .but..it will bounce back big time!

**Timberridge** · 03-12-2020, 01:42 PM

Originally Posted by Yonder_River

Help a finance jong out. We are rather deep in stocks with our allocations (72%) but at least 20 years from retirement. Our financial advisor is very much into holding firm and not budging through the duration. I push back and then he warns me there are always ups and downs and we we can never time the market correctly. Yep, sounds like a typical advisor.

That being said should I stay firm and switch to cash and income generating funds until there is an inkling of hope? He says we'll just miss the uptick when it happens and lose out. Yeah, i know, no easy answers but im curious what the odds are most are holding fast in their allocations.

When the rebound happens it will come hard and fast. The market became a casino with old people too heavily invested in equities for their risk tolerance. But they are all addicted now. So if you think you are good at timing and can guess red or black correctly have at it. If not, stay put.

**Ted Striker** · 03-12-2020, 01:45 PM

^^^plus the algos.

**up an down** · 03-12-2020, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

When the rebound happens it will come hard and fast. The market became a casino with old people too heavily invested in equities for their risk tolerance. But they are all addicted now. So if you think you are good at timing and can guess red or black correctly have at it. If not, stay put.

This recession will destroy fundamental valuations... And...The astonishing amount of debt is the financial sword of Damocles hanging over the market and will be so for years..there will be trading rallies... Just as there was this afternoon...But until all the bad news fundamentals are known..And acknowledged..I don't think any rally will stick

**El Chupacabra** · 03-12-2020, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by Yonder_River

Help a finance jong out. We are rather deep in stocks with our allocations (72%) but at least 20 years from retirement. Our financial advisor is very much into holding firm and not budging through the duration. I push back and then he warns me there are always ups and downs and we we can never time the market correctly. Yep, sounds like a typical advisor.

That being said should I stay firm and switch to cash and income generating funds until there is an inkling of hope? He says we'll just miss the uptick when it happens and lose out. Yeah, i know, no easy answers but im curious what the odds are most are holding fast in their allocations.

To be successful at timing, you'll have to be accurate twice: when you sell high(ish) and when you buy low(ish). You're probably a little late for the selling high.

You should have an asset allocation strategy that lets you sleep at night while likely producing what you need it to.

FWIW, Mrs C and I are at around a 60% stock/ 35 bond /5 cash allocation. Have made no changes through any of the market fluctuations. This does not mean it is the right allocation for you. I am a firm believer in buy and hold, but YMMV.

**Timberridge** · 03-12-2020, 01:54 PM

Originally Posted by up an down

This recession will destroy fundamental valuations... And...The astonishing amount of debt is the financial sword of Damocles hanging over the market and will be so for years..there will be trading rallies... Just as there was this afternoon...But until all the bad news fundamentals are known..And acknowledged..I don't think any rally will stick

Every downturn destroys valuations and the good thing for most people is that stocks don't trade on fundamental valuations. If they did, they would never buy TSLA or AMZN. You just have to buy what everybody else wants to buy before they do.

**rideit** · 03-12-2020, 01:58 PM

I’m going long on crack.

**4matic** · 03-12-2020, 01:59 PM

Tilray $150>$5

**up an down** · 03-12-2020, 01:59 PM

Originally Posted by Timberridge

Every downturn destroys valuations and the good thing for most people is that stocks don't trade on fundamental valuations. If they did, they would never buy TSLA or AMZN. You just have to buy what everybody else wants to buy before they do.

I think Buffet would disagree with you about that....

**4matic** · 03-12-2020, 02:01 PM

Originally Posted by up an down

I think Buffet would disagree with you about that....

WB doesn't own and has never owned either. He did say he was wrong on AMZN but it's not the type of stock he buys. But he does say "price is what you pay, value is what you get."

It's also why he has historic high cash levels.

**up an down** · 03-12-2020, 02:04 PM

Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

To be successful at timing, you'll have to be accurate twice: when you sell high(ish) and when you buy low(ish). You're probably a little late for the selling high.

You should have an asset allocation strategy that lets you sleep at night while likely producing what you need it to.

FWIW, Mrs C and I are at around a 60% stock/ 35 bond /5 cash allocation. Have made no changes through any of the market fluctuations. This does not mean it is the right allocation for you. I am a firm believer in buy and hold, but YMMV.

A belief about the validity of buy and hold depends on your time frame and your assumptions about the future... Take a look at a 50 year chart of the Nikkei index...ask yourself what you would have done after it started dropping from the high if you were invested then as you are now... What assumptions would you have made at that time... Sometimes assumptions turn out to be accurate..Sometimes not..

**Cono Este** · 03-12-2020, 02:04 PM

Worst day ever? Jez

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

**CovertM** · 03-12-2020, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by Yonder_River

Help a finance jong out. We are rather deep in stocks with our allocations (72%) but at least 20 years from retirement. Our financial advisor is very much into holding firm and not budging through the duration. I push back and then he warns me there are always ups and downs and we we can never time the market correctly. Yep, sounds like a typical advisor.

That being said should I stay firm and switch to cash and income generating funds until there is an inkling of hope? He says we'll just miss the uptick when it happens and lose out. Yeah, i know, no easy answers but im curious what the odds are most are holding fast in their allocations.

IMO being 20 years out and roughly 70/30 asset allocation is fairly conservative, depending on personal risk tolerance, risk capacity, etc.

Hold tight. As stated above you'd have to guess right twice and there is a mountain of evidence that timing does not work as a long term strategy.

**Cono Este** · 03-12-2020, 02:07 PM

Originally Posted by up an down

I think Buffet would disagree with you about that....

Nah. A stock and it’s price are two different things. Maybe over the long term, but not in the near future.

Price discovery, is loose. Large buyers and sellers are usually far apart. 10% or so. Rarely are they trading with each other.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

**El Chupacabra** · 03-12-2020, 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by up an down

A belief about the validity of buy and hold depends on your time frame and your assumptions about the future... Take a look at a 50 year chart of the Nikkei index...ask yourself what you would have done after it started dropping from the high if you were invested then as you are now... What assumptions would you have made at that time... Sometimes assumptions turn out to be accurate..Sometimes not..

IMHO that is not a particularly valid comparison to use. If you go back in time to whatever date you would like to use for the Japanese stock market -- would you have put 100% of all holdings in that market? Likewise, for 2020: would you put 100% of everything in the US stock market, and nowhere else?