Is the stock market going to tank?

[skaredshtles]

On social media crypto degens and prominent VCs in the space are trying to create a panic among regular people that their deposits are in danger. Absolute bottom feeders.

Fuck those morans.

[JimmyCarter]

On social media crypto degens and prominent VCs in the space are trying to create a panic among regular people that their deposits are in danger. Absolute bottom feeders.

Just caught the opening of todays all-in podcast with Chamath and friends. Those shitweasels are basically saying “we did everything right, the media is trying to scapegoat us but we’re saving the day!”

[Cono Este]

Maybe we’re pinned until Monday.

Time to start St Pattys day.

[4matic]

Maybe we’re pinned until Monday.

Time to start St Pattys day.

On a quarterly Friday? Both sides of the range at risk.

[Cono Este]

Monday is usually Armageddon after ex. The street whores need to get the crap off their sheets before they let he’ll break loose on the rest of us.

[4matic]

Silicon Valley Bros

“SVB’s home loans were significantly better than those from traditional banks... The loans were $2.5 million to $6 million, with interest rates under 2.6%. Other banks had turned them down or, when given quotes for interest rates, offered over 3%”

[Cono Este]

Silicon Valley Bros

“SVB’s home loans were significantly better than those from traditional banks... The loans were $2.5 million to $6 million, with interest rates under 2.6%. Other banks had turned them down or, when given quotes for interest rates, offered over 3%”

I can imagine all the Atherton homes financed by that place. I was home in December staying with a realtor there and people were already i trouble from borrowing against stocks to buy homes. Some dope had 20mm, bought a 10 mm home, and was now up shit creek. Wouldn’t sell.

Glad we’re helping those dumb asses. I wish they’d go back to Michigan.

[dunfree]

UBS in talks to buy CS. Lol, how the Swiss elite jam that shit down the Swiss people

[Toadman]

UBS in talks to buy CS. Lol, how the Swiss elite jam that shit down the Swiss people

Did the Russian money dry up?

[JimmyCarter]

Did the Russian money dry up?

Russian money? I thought they were still running off nazi gold.

Meanwhile, FRC falling after hours
Wedbush analyst calling for $5 a share.
“A distressed M&A sale could result in minimal, if any, residual value to common equity holders owing to FRC’s significant negative tangible book value after taking into account fair value marks on its loans and securities.”

[Cono Este]

Russian money? I thought they were still running off nazi gold.

Meanwhile, FRC falling after hours
Wedbush analyst calling for $5 a share.
“A distressed M&A sale could result in minimal, if any, residual value to common equity holders owing to FRC’s significant negative tangible book value after taking into account fair value marks on its loans and securities.”

That’s my gut feeling 9-12 bucks early next week.

Great rally yesterday, could have legged into some free verticals if played right. Those option mm’s probably were trading 90’s style. $$$$ wide mkts, big intra day imp vol swing. That rally saved their asses. Vol probably came in a bit, they got to buy some after being short as shit. and got to sell stock and excess deltas. some people are thanking their lucky stars tonight.

[LeeLau]

Banks. On perceived reality and confidence.

https://www.netinterest.co/p/contagi...m_medium=email

[Ted Striker]

Bill Maher on Signature Bank: That's when you know you're a bad bank, when you run out of imaginary money.

[Cono Este]

When I said 12, I meant sometime this week, not like, today.

[LeeLau]

When I said 12, I meant sometime this week, not like, today.

Yeah my WAL long gains offsetting FRC losses (with FRC as a yolo bet) not working well for me. The ass pain is getting a bit much.

[shroom]

I can imagine all the Atherton homes financed by that place. I was home in December staying with a realtor there and people were already i trouble from borrowing against stocks to buy homes. Some dope had 20mm, bought a 10 mm home, and was now up shit creek. Wouldn’t sell.

Glad we’re helping those dumb asses. I wish they’d go back to Michigan.

i sat through a presentation specifically geared at leveraging RSUs for residential leverage. sad reality

[BobMc]

Yeah my WAL long gains offsetting FRC losses (with FRC as a yolo bet) not working well for me. The ass pain is getting a bit much.

I was able to get out of my $20 put this morning when it popped for a few minutes, took $30 profit and was glad! My $34.50 put isn’t looking so good…

[Cono Este]

i sat through a presentation specifically geared at leveraging RSUs for residential leverage. sad reality

Fuck those people. Using fake money to buy up everything the last 20 yrs. Other people towns. And All to cheat the tax man too. So they thought.

[Cono Este]

Usually I’d say a stock like frc would stay down for the count and all premium will rot on the vine.

But who knows what stupid bailout they’ll get for being dumb.

[fastfred]

hospitals will all be looking for a bail out by years end
guess that free market for profit healthcare system isn't working out

[LeeLau]

Usually I’d say a stock like frc would stay down for the count and all premium will rot on the vine.

But who knows what stupid bailout they’ll get for being dumb.

I dunno. How were they dumb? Their financials show they were well run. They bought conservative things ; treasuries etc and made loans ( as they should). Their spending isn't outrageous. They treated customers well.

What they didn't do was hedge their long dated book exposure but now doing a bit more digging i see interest rate swaps were pricy.

Also, putting on thinking cap; accounting standards wouldn't allow FRC to show hedges as offsetting hold to maturity assets so the hedges would show on the books as a naked negative bet on rates which, in and of itself, would also be susceptible to criticism.

Basically damned if you, damned if you don't. Which, to me, means many other FIs are open to the same analysis as FRC. Ergo the feds will bailout the entire system.

Would like to hear other viewpoints. But any thesis which says that big money will protect itself is more likely imo

[Mustonen]

Anecdotally: investments that an FI could hold on their balance sheet were few and far between for a while there. Smaller players would swing at a few million of something and get beat by somebody like Chase who swooped in to buy the whole thing.

I think there was some irrationality around just buying something, anything, to put all that overnight cash to work. There weren’t a lot of other strategies available other than to just hold the cash in overnight, earning next to nothing. The industry did not anticipate rates flying up like they did.

The heat being heaped on these guys for buying treasuries, of all things, is a little bit absurd. Unrealized losses are due to interest rate environment, not credit issues. Balance sheet is solid there, it’s just not a ready source of liquidity. As long as liquidity in general is managed then these investments are just as good as they were 18 months ago, just not as good as what’s available right now.

[LeeLau]

.....
The heat being heaped on these guys for buying treasuries, of all things, is a little bit absurd. Unrealized losses are due to interest rate environment, not credit issues. Balance sheet is solid there, it’s just not a ready source of liquidity. As long as liquidity in general is managed then these investments are just as good as they were 18 months ago, just not as good as what’s available right now.

Ditto the heat for mark to mark unrealized losses. In more halcyon times ( ie a month ago), many FIs carried unrealized gains without waving pom poms about them.

This is a far far cry from the gross negligence of 2008 with the packaged MBS and derivative of derivatives toxic assets.

[Cono Este]

I dunno. How were they dumb? Their financials show they were well run. They bought conservative things ; treasuries etc and made loans ( as they should). Their spending isn't outrageous. They treated customers well.

What they didn't do was hedge their long dated book exposure but now doing a bit more digging i see interest rate swaps were pricy.

Also, putting on thinking cap; accounting standards wouldn't allow FRC to show hedges as offsetting hold to maturity assets so the hedges would show on the books as a naked negative bet on rates which, in and of itself, would also be susceptible to criticism.

Basically damned if you, damned if you don't. Which, to me, means many other FIs are open to the same analysis as FRC. Ergo the feds will bailout the entire system.

Would like to hear other viewpoints. But any thesis which says that big money will protect itself is more likely imo

Interesting point about the accounting, I dunno about all that stuff.

I do know, risk is risk. It’s quite simple to identify and manage. Buying long dated treasuries to earn a bigger spread, without hedging it, is simply naked and greedy. To add that treasuries were at a historic high when they did it, thats just plain out a stupid amount of risk. Basically a texas hedge. Long, hedged with even longer. Idiots.

If I went unhedged for one day, the phone rang. And no matter the loss, you took it or were fired.

[Cono Este]

This is not exclusives to banks. How many of us have had dumb ass partners who can’t respect a business can only grow, safely, so fast? Same lack of respect for risk and what separates professionals from gun slinging morons who ruin everything for everyone.