Is the stock market going to tank?

[RootSkier]

Really nice to see the GOP was dumping stock on privileged information before the downturn.

Really makes you wonder about all the chads in this thread thinking they can outsmart the market while also likely voting for Republicans.

[Benny Profane]

Really nice to see the GOP was dumping stock on privileged information before the downturn.

Their privilege.

[Toadman]

Dude needs to go buh bye.

https://news.yahoo.com/akin-1918-pan...154501809.html

[rideit]

is everyone there that strapped for cash? Grocery/Walmart makes the $ go further if you’ve a few more $ to invest and one nearby

No Walmart for 100 miles.

[Benny Profane]

https://centreforaviation.com/analys...ankrupt-517512

[Mazderati]

WMT's online presence and lack of Prime membership fee which is one of the main reasons I'm still holding shares. But, the stock is not exactly cheap right now.

[Toadman]

https://centreforaviation.com/analys...ankrupt-517512

That's a bummer. I've got, like over 1 million FF miles sitting in various accounts.

[XXX-er]

The world is getting shut down

fuck ya Stock market has/is gona tanked

if you are in cash there will be deals

that is all

[LeeLau]

In on CCL 18 ouch and 10. Avg 14. Thinking it may tank more going into earnings.

A high yield but one i expect to cut dividend to preserve cash. The lowest debt/cash ratio of all cruise liners. RCL is smaller. Norwegian doesn't pay a div. Slow growth market but has fanatical cult like devotion

Debt picture
----------------------
They have 4 issues in the US market

CCL 3.95 10/15/20 99.78 / 4.25%

CCL 7.2 10/01/23 110 / 4.431

CCL 7.875 06/01/27 110 ** traded here today / 6.136%

CCL 6.65 01/15/28 see bid side only 6.648% / 100 -- traded at 110 for small yesterday


And 3 in EUR
CCL 1.625 02/22/21

CCL 1.875 11/07/22

CCL 1 10/28/29 - this appears to be the most active line looks like they trade somewhere in the lower 80s and out of london – 80 would be 3.48% YTM

They drew down their bank line but i expected that.

Did some digging about what happens if CCL parks assets. "Operational cost of big shipping just parked is about 6k usd a day I don’t know how that mulitplies for a cruise ship but it would be an order of magnitude bigger. Cost of a new bulk panamax ship is 40 -50 million cruise ship likely 900 million so mabey that ratio is a rough number "

Where do I see it going? Dunno. Slapped it into retirement account which i don't have to touch for 18 years so can let it go to zero or let it go back to 60 and spitting out dividends (crossing fingers)

[Ottime]

Next weeks jobs numbers are gonna be a blood bath. This Monday alone (not covered in today’s) - MA saw more claims then all of February. Might see 1 million + nationwide. Even businesses that are doing well now near me (so pretty much only grocery stores and liquor stores) are cutting hourly employee hours and using salaried staff/owners to stock, clerk, checkout.

Not here. Groceries are hiring. NPR reported that was the case across the country. Safeway down the street is now closed from 10-6 so they can clean and stock the store. Lots of trucks bringing in good. But they need more staff to work.

[Ottime]

Really makes you wonder about all the chads in this thread thinking they can outsmart the market while also likely voting for Republicans.

I’m a Chad. Never have thought I could put smart the market. Voted republican theee Times, all at local level because the candidate was the best choice. So what is your point?

[LeeLau]

Solar Capital Ltd - SLRC all pulled from 10k

debt/equity investment house. Basically a publicly listed PIPE house mostly secured financings in middle sized companies. basically trying to be a US equivalent to lenders to german middelstags

Div history pretty consistent - https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activi...vidend-history from 2010 onward but no 2008 history. between 0.40 to 0.60 per Q

Debt 593M secured by approx 250% assets (marked to market?). Notes long-dated. How are bank covenants?

As of December 31, 2019, we had $117.9 million outstanding under our senior secured revolving credit facility (the “Credit Facility”), composed of $42.9 million of revolving credit and $75.0 million outstanding of term loans, and $30.0 million outstanding under our NEFPASS Facility. We also had $75.0 million outstanding of the 2026 Unsecured Notes, $125.0 million outstanding of the 2024 Unsecured Notes, $75.0 million outstanding of the 2023 Unsecured Notes, $150.0 million outstanding of the 2022 Unsecured Notes, and $21.0 million outstanding of the 2022 Tranche C Notes



"At December 31, 2019, our portfolio consisted of 108 portfolio companies and was invested 31.0% in cash flow senior secured loans, 28.2% in asset-based senior secured loans / Crystal Financial LLC (“Crystal”), 21.5% in equipment senior secured financings / NEF Holdings, LLC (“NEF”), and 19.3% in life science senior secured loans, in each case, measured at fair value".



Looks like crystal and NEF are wholly owned subs. Crystal is biggest risk at 15% of port with 496m loans/520m security

Main risk is entire US or SLRC's port going bk - But hell of a yield

[LeeLau]

IVR - a mortgage REIT. just raised 300m through shares at $17 in Feb 2020 which in hindsight was brilliant

Book value looks pretty solid

Earnings also pretty solid

Div coverage looks fine

PMT - also a REIT. Div also 30% +

I don't feel qualified to assess value of RMBS or mortgages. But man those yields and they just declared divs.

Risk is in repo desks for mortgage rollovers and if they have corporate bond exposure; if bonds melt down.

Suppose the risk is if there's default cos people go bk, get laid off and can't make payments.

[dunfree]

Not here. Groceries are hiring. NPR reported that was the case across the country. Safeway down the street is now closed from 10-6 so they can clean and stock the store. Lots of trucks bringing in good. But they need more staff to work.

clean and stock? Bullshit. It’s easier to stock when shelves are empty. Janitors are contract.

all of the groceries I described say they are hiring. The actions show a different story.

this could go bad, good, mediocre

[3213256479+8]

The only problem with dumpster diving right now is that we're in an early phase of simultaneous global currency, sovereign debt, corporate debt, supply chain, labor market, political and public health crises. The Gyna virus thingy is getting nearly all the attention, but the mismanagement of all the aforementioned critical systems to the point where exogenous shocks trigger auto-catalytic doom loops will not go away when the public health situation improves. The boats in all these systems were loaded and are not tipping - they have tipped and are sinking. Systemic volatility, actively suppressed since the Greenspan 80s, is now in a positive-reinforcing situation where each shock provokes further shocks in related systems. It's a social-economic-financial-political failure, far beyond a 'mild recession' or anything resembling normal economic cycles. Mayyybe the Fed put works one more time and we pretend like we're geniuses for another bull run, but the skew seems down.

The lesson for me now is to gtfo the way of this freight train. Cash, AAA bonds, gold, BTC - only things with the best counter-parties or that you can secure physical possession of. Maybe equity in beaten up but healthy growth-oriented equities, but value shopping early in the unwind seems premature.

[4matic]

Solar Capital Ltd - SLRC all pulled from 10k

I owned that for a while. Traded so thin I scratched it. Small loan portfolio. Agree that these thin stocks can be good pickups in small size.

I owned and made good money on PFF. It’s interesting now. Yields 7%

[shroom]

Dude needs to go buh bye.

https://news.yahoo.com/akin-1918-pan...154501809.html

we just need higher paid guidance on TGR to win this game

https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-ke...virus-briefing

i need to start taking my insider trading opportunities to keep up, let’s call ‘em bootstraps

[Mazderati]

@Lee Thanks for sharing that info.

I'm surprised today's markets are a) up and b) not making more dramatic moves.

[Toadman]

I hope Burr gets his feet put to the fire. Same for Loeffler.

https://twitter.com/Santucci?ref_src...rd-burr-3.html

[4matic]

Debt market doing a lot better today.

[Benny Profane]

I hope Burr gets his feet put to the fire. Same for Loeffler.

https://twitter.com/Santucci?ref_src...rd-burr-3.html

Tucker Carlson was all over this.

[Toadman]

Quoted from Slate.com

I don’t think anybody’s really ready for shock that’s coursing through the United States economy right now, thanks to the coronavirus. Last week, 281,000 Americans filed for unemployment, an increase of 33 percent. On Thursday morning, the New York Times reported that more than 629,000 had done so this week in just 15 states. Now, Goldman Sachs is estimating that more than 2.25 million people will apply for jobless benefits this week.

[4matic]

"$4.7 Trillion. That's the size of the Fed's balance sheet this morning. A new record. Distressed debt just doubled. There's $500 billion in distressed debt as of this morning. What could possibly go wrong?"

[Toadman]

Then there's this beauty.

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econo...s02ZFhwuq3LcGQ

The Trump administration is asking state labor officials to delay releasing the precise number of unemployment claims they are fielding, an indication of how uneasy policymakers are about further roiling a stock market already plunging in response to the coronavirus outbreak.

In an email sent Wednesday, the Labor Department instructed state officials to only “provide information using generalities to describe claims levels (very high, large increase)” until the department releases the total number of national claims next Thursday.

[Benny Profane]

That's funny. Like they can tell the states to do that. I'd like to hear the mafia boss phone call threats to various governors.