Is the stock market going to tank?

[Cono Este]

I’m just a dumb trader, but I guess when you add a few zeros to the money supply and hit send, shit goes crazy.


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[Benny Profane]

Any body care to predict what happens to the market if Trump loses?

No whoop. Biden has said more than once he won't change shit. Cotton 2024!

[Ski220]

If Biden wins the presidency, the market will go back to 2016 pre Trump level. Will make this waterfall tiny compared to the Niagra that will follow.

Just saying, be prepared and have your stops set.

On 4-14-2020

Looks more and more like Biden will prevail.

Biden picks either Stacey Abrams or Kamela Harris as his running mate.

Activists will keep creating protest movements throughout the late summer and fall to keep their bases and the influential aroused.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/04/polit...ton/index.html

Without the black and youth vote Biden would lose, much as Hillery Clinton did.

Any other needs to know?

[philth]

I’m just a dumb trader, but I guess when you add a few zeros to the money supply and hit send, shit goes crazy.


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Bingo... I can’t remember the actual quote but bitd a big boy fund manager said “ if the government says they will spend their way out of a crisis get long or get the fuck out of the way” maybe Steinhardt or Robertson....


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[Benny Profane]

Futures going nuts. THIS is nuts.

[BobMc]

Bob - you have no idea how stoked I am for you on this. But I am hoping to ride it back over a 3 - 5 year back to pre-COVID levels. Due to the added fairly massive dilution that's around 42 or so.

BBBY has been hovering 16-20 for two years, the five year graph is pretty gruesome. They did swap out some management so that may improve things. I bought in at 6.40, I’m definitely out by 16.40.

SABR went up another 1.33 again today, once again screwed myself. Tried to buy it at 7.70 the other day, then planned on market buying it, got distracted by Pepperdawgs VISL tip, went in on 200 shares of that. That left me short of buying my preferred 100 share block of SABR, and I got to watch SABR climb today while VISL lost .14. I still have a little faith in VISL, saw a price projection of 10 for the stock so I’ll hold for a few.

I just put in an order for 50 shares of SABR at after hours close price, I still think it’ll be up to pre-covids 20 pretty quickly.

I’m kinda obsessive compulsive, I don’t switch hobbies a lot but when I get into one I spend a lot if time on it. I’m still completely green and really have no idea about puts or calls or shorts. I’m just doing a lot of reading and buying what my reading leads me to.

I’ll probably lose it all at some point, but so far I’ve doubled my money in less than two months.

[sirbumpsalot]

Futures going nuts. THIS is nuts.

Did you get in this morning? I hope so for your sake.

[dunfree]

So... if we are talking politics, this fiscal discipline bullshit is bullshit then, right? Just spend your way out of any potential problem, no downsides, and that we didn’t in 2009-11 is a catastrophe?

[4matic]

It’s definitely bullshit till it isn’t. Long rates are the risk. If there were ever such a thing as the bond vigilantes again hang on to your hat. But, that might not affect stock prices of large companies.

Treasury has really sold off but junk and corporates continue to rally.

[Benny Profane]

Did you get in this morning? I hope so for your sake.

Yeah, I always buy high. Secret to my early retirement.

[MultiVerse]

Modern nationalistic myths aside the collapse of Rome took about 500 years, or 50 decades.

[MultiVerse]

No I don't think you are. Rather than focusing your time and energy on the Fed (assuming you actually care about these things and aren't talking your book) then worrying about fiscal and regulatory policy, etc., matter a lot more. Unlike the federal government, the Fed was not asleep at the wheel during this crisis.

[406]

Buying this last dip was a grand slam home run. I fanned.

Yeah, me too. Worse I had a rule set up that I was not going to not get greedy and to buy back in when S&P got around Nov 2016 level and when it did I didn't notice because I was too busy at work to get the transfer in prior to close of market. And I thought the first few days up was a dead bat bounce.

I'm still pretty skeptical that this rally will last, seems way to crazy.

[sirbumpsalot]

Yeah, me too. Worse I had a rule set up that I was not going to not get greedy and to buy back in when S&P got around Nov 2016 level and when it did I didn't notice because I was too busy at work to get the transfer in prior to close of market. And I thought the first few days up was a dead bat bounce.

I'm still pretty skeptical that this rally will last, seems way to crazy.

You don't have to buy the market. There are plenty of beaten down stocks well down from their highs despite being 40 to 50 % above their lows. Think 2 to 3yrs or more out and don't be greedy. You don't have to pick the bottom.

Don't be like Benny who claims he doesn't understand this market, then proclaims he knows it's at a high.

[Benny Profane]

Oh, I understand the market. Good luck, child.

[MultiVerse]

Due to a “misclassification error” the official unemployment rate is likely 3% higher than the numbers reported yesterday:


If this “misclassification error” had not occurred, the “overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported,” meaning the unemployment rate would be about 16.3 percent for May. But that would still be an improvement from an unemployment rate of about 19.7 percent for April, applying the same standards.

....

Instead of focusing on possible Trump interference, many economists wish people would focus on the fact that 21 million Americans are currently unemployed and over 2 million have permanently lost their jobs.

The situation remains dire, they say, even after a few jobs returned in May as the economy reopened.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...ication-error/

[Benny Profane]

I'm amazed that anybody believes that report and press conference/campaign speech yesterday is anywhere near the truth, but, we all have our confirmation bias. Party on, Garth.

[billyk]

The same “error” was in the April and previous reports. It’s not like the results for the May report was cooked. It was an apples to apples compare.

[dunfree]

What does a 3% difference in unemployment matter anyways? That, PPP, higher UI boosting household income, nothing to worry about because everything is going to run fine until.... August?

[406]

You don't have to buy the market. There are plenty of beaten down stocks well down from their highs despite being 40 to 50 % above their lows. Think 2 to 3yrs or more out and don't be greedy. You don't have to pick the bottom.

Don't be like Benny who claims he doesn't understand this market, then proclaims he knows it's at a high.

Yeah, I was talking about my 401k. Haven't had time to do anything with brokerage account (hence missing s&p low) unfortunately, although brokerage account would be pennies compared to 401k balance.

[sirbumpsalot]

Yeah, I was talking about my 401k. Haven't had time to do anything with brokerage account (hence missing s&p low) unfortunately, although brokerage account would be pennies compared to 401k balance.

Gotcha. Don't worry about timing your 401K...since everything is funds...just do weekly/monthly dribbles regardless of the numbers. I can remember tossing extra money in the QQQ funds after the 2008 fiasco some 40% off the bottom @$41 - just held my nose and bought thinking to myself....I just bought the top of the dead cat bounce. Little did I expect 11 years later it would by up almost 500%.

Remember you "can't" touch your 401K until 59-1/2 so think long term. I've been buying in my current 401K though this whole thing and will have more money going in the market Monday EOD.

[billyk]

Gotcha. Don't worry about timing your 401K...since everything is funds...just do weekly/monthly dribbles regardless of the numbers. I can remember tossing extra money in the QQQ funds after the 2008 fiasco some 40% off the bottom @$41 - just held my nose and bought thinking to myself....I just bought the top of the dead cat bounce. Little did I expect 11 years later it would by up almost 500%.

Remember you "can't" touch your 401K until 59-1/2 so think long term. I've been buying in my current 401K though this whole thing and will have more money going in the market Monday EOD.

You can do an “in service” roll-over from a 401K to an IRA while still employed at the same company at age 55 without penalty. That allows you to trade stocks and ETFs in the IRA.

Also, of course, you can rebalance the 401K to move money from stock funds to bonds or even cash everything out without penalty as long as the money stays inside the 401K (in a cash account).

Some funds have limits on how often you can do that. And I’m not saying it’s a good idea to do that, but just that it’s possible.

[billyk]

IVR going crazy today. Up 67% right now, although it varies by the second.

[LeeLau]

IVR going crazy today. Up 67% right now, although it varies by the second.

It's hard to believe. My AGNC which holds agency MBS and pays dividends in cash is far lagging my IVR which holds non agency MBS and pays dividends in mostly stock. It's not a complaint by any means but does not follow logic

[Toadman]

CHK going through the roof. Looks like that cat has a few lives left...