Is the stock market going to tank?

**Benny Profane** · 10-02-2019, 04:18 PM

Saw this today.

**skaredshtles** · 10-02-2019, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Saw this today.

It's tough livin' like a baller.

**Benny Profane** · 10-02-2019, 04:59 PM

Well, there's a ton of people living like this in Westchester and Fairfield County, and this new tax law with the cap on local tax write offs, I'm pretty convinced, is harming a huge chunk of the economy in places where a lot of people are "ballin'". Home prices are flat to down, and spending on stupid luxuries are down and will be hit. Yeah, tiny violin, but, these are the people in America who have money, and spend it.

**Cono Este** · 10-02-2019, 05:36 PM

Is this it?

Armageddon like 1997, 2003, or 2007?

Smoke em if you got’em.

Trump gains erased, at a minimum, Vix to 100 before I buy a share.

**Benny Profane** · 10-02-2019, 05:39 PM

Nope. Not when rates are so low. And unicorns are shriveling.

**dunfree** · 10-02-2019, 05:39 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Saw this today.

that's EPIC pass material; or more importantly short epic pass.

**Benny Profane** · 10-02-2019, 05:44 PM

Yup. Exact demographic.

**sirbumpsalot** · 10-02-2019, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Well, there's a ton of people living like this in Westchester and Fairfield County, and this new tax law with the cap on local tax write offs, I'm pretty convinced, is harming a huge chunk of the economy in places where a lot of people are "ballin'". Home prices are flat to down, and spending on stupid luxuries are down and will be hit. Yeah, tiny violin, but, these are the people in America who have money, and spend it.

I don't know....they paid $114,000 in taxes. Figure the state income tax was ballbark $31,000 and the prop taxes are $22,000 thats $53,000, capped at $24,000 leaves $29,000 @ 45% total tax rate or ~$13,000 extra in taxes per year. For a Baller thats noise.....certainly not enough to convince them to downside from their $1.6M Mansion to a 1300 sqft foot condo nor sway another baller from doing the same thing.

Also notice they paid $114,000 in taxes out of a $350,000 income....so much for the "rich don't pay taxes argument"

**skaredshtles** · 10-02-2019, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by sirbumpsalot

I don't know....they paid $114,000 in taxes. Figure the state income tax was ballbark $31,000 and the prop taxes are $22,000 thats $53,000, capped at $24,000 leaves $29,000 @ 45% total tax rate or ~$13,000 extra in taxes per year. For a Baller thats noise.....certainly not enough to convince them to downside from their $1.6M Mansion to a 1300 sqft foot condo nor sway another baller from doing the same thing.

Also notice they paid $114,000 in taxes out of a $350,000 income....so much for the "rich don't pay taxes argument"

They aren't rich. They're middle-class.

**Benny Profane** · 10-02-2019, 06:38 PM

Somebody beat me to it, but, they ain't rich, they are middle class.

And the cap for fed deductions is 10,000 state and property. So, since they really ain't "ballin'", just middle class, at a very high level of paycheck to paycheck, with practically no liquidity to speak of, that's suddenly a hit. No Vail this year, kids.

No more playing the refi/home equity game, either. Still paying a 30 year loan from 2003. And, chances are, house value is stagnant to down ten years after the crash.

**El Chupacabra** · 10-02-2019, 06:45 PM

$350K income is not middle class.

**Benny Profane** · 10-02-2019, 06:49 PM

It is here. Try living in a decent house and bringing up 2.5 in a modern way on less.

**Cono Este** · 10-02-2019, 07:00 PM

Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

$350K income is not middle class.

It is in a lot of places. Two incomes in the Bay Area can easily surpass that.

Plus the next real estate nightmare they’ll lose all their equity and probably move back to Michigan.

**rideit** · 10-02-2019, 07:58 PM

In auto news...

https://jalopnik.com/the-collapse-mi...ere-1838696472

**Lindahl** · 10-02-2019, 08:31 PM

Originally Posted by El Chupacabra

$350K income is not middle class.

Look at the city list at the bottom. I’d drop Denver off that list for sure and probably some others too. But looking at those numbers, I’m pretty sure they were pulled from the Bay area. Or perhaps New York too. The home price gives it away. I don’t think that home price floats in the other cities on the list, so the numbers would be different.

**jono** · 10-02-2019, 11:28 PM

Originally Posted by Lindahl

Look at the city list at the bottom. I’d drop Denver off that list for sure and probably some others too. But looking at those numbers, I’m pretty sure they were pulled from the Bay area. Or perhaps New York too. The home price gives it away. I don’t think that home price floats in the other cities on the list, so the numbers would be different.

Looks like Boston is the mode of that list.

**Marshall Tucker** · 10-03-2019, 06:15 AM

Contribution to a 529 plan or a 401k is NOT an expense. it's savings. When they go back to michican in the next crash they'll be taking substantial balances in these accounts with them.

The labeling should be more like "cash in and cash out."

**SumJongGuy** · 10-03-2019, 06:26 AM

$350K is definitely middle class, perhaps "upper" middle class but these days I'd put "wealthy" as >$500K most places. Middle class income should pay for a mortgage on 4 bedrooms, 2-3 cars, and college for two kids comfortably.

**Bobby Stainless** · 10-03-2019, 06:28 AM

Originally Posted by skaredshtles

It's tough livin' like a baller.

350k a year is ballin'? Maybe in South Dakota.

**Benny Profane** · 10-03-2019, 07:18 AM

Ballin is living large and not working at the same time. Extra points for paying zero taxes.

**mcsquared** · 10-03-2019, 07:27 AM

Originally Posted by Marshall Tucker

Contribution to a 529 plan or a 401k is NOT an expense. it's savings. When they go back to michican in the next crash they'll be taking substantial balances in these accounts with them.

The labeling should be more like "cash in and cash out."

Additionally, I would like to know how their mortgage payment is >50% to principal. That is either a weird amortization schedule or they have owned the place for a decade and probably have a shit ton of equity.

**ICantLogIn** · 10-03-2019, 08:11 AM

Well gold still looks good.

**Marshall Tucker** · 10-03-2019, 08:51 AM

Good catch didn't even notice that. if you even 1/2 way manage yer fuckin finances, $350k is way upper middle class boardering on upper class for a very large swath of the country. Californa? NYC? Boston? Chicago? PHilly/DC? maybe not. rest of the country for sure.

Originally Posted by mcsquared

Additionally, I would like to know how their mortgage payment is >50% to principal. That is either a weird amortization schedule or they have owned the place for a decade and probably have a shit ton of equity.

**dunfree** · 10-03-2019, 09:05 AM

Originally Posted by Marshall Tucker

Contribution to a 529 plan or a 401k is NOT an expense. it's savings. When they go back to michican in the next crash they'll be taking substantial balances in these accounts with them.

yeah the household is "barely getting by" saving $50k a year. US median household income is ~$60k. the only reason they aren't rich in the megapolises is because ... there are a bunch of really rich people living in those places.

and linking the two parallel conversation if they are only paying $4.5k/yr for that highlander they've got a 6-7 year car loan with little down.

personal opinion is that the auto-purchase slowdown is somewhat because a segment of consumers were anticipating, and want to buy a whole bunch of promised things (self-driving, long range EVs, direct replacement for gas EVs) that aren't here now in cars. And more importantly - won't be for several years - no matter what chonky the techbro clown who's cars can't navigate parking lots claims to pump his stock.