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  1. #14726
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Palm to fucking forehead. Jezuz H.

    We are the fucking association.
    How does “we” vote in your interest?

    China has clear private property rights. It might be different but private interest is well protected.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_law_in_China

  2. #14727
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    Quote Originally Posted by CovertM View Post
    Yes, or No, Maybe...
    No one can tell you what's going to happen tomorrow. Could be a big Nothing Burger today, could be the start of a significant slide back, no one knows for sure
    Personally loaded up on 12/31 SPY and QQQ Calls today, $500 range and $400 range respectively. September slump continues and then we rocket ship into EOY IMO, NFA
    Xi probably feels like the all and powerful Oz. He has the power to watch other countries markets hit the crapper if he doesn't step in. He might throw Evergrande a small bone on one of the interest payments, or maybe stipulates that the BOC will act as lender of last resort to avoid a meltdown of Chinese markets. Or, Xi could just sit on his hands and let the central planned market go free market to just see what happens. But, I don't think the all and powerful Xi wants to be seen as that leader who let China's economy implode just so he could teach the speculators and rich Chinese a lesson.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  3. #14728
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Next few days are important with fed speak and China concern. The news that Fed governors own stock in Fed supported companies and the re-appointment of Powell. A Biden appointee will probably be more dovish than Powell if that’s possible.

    “Powell's term officially ends in February 2022, but the White House had previously indicated it would make a decision by Labor Day. Press secretary Jen Psaki said Biden will make the decision with enough time to ensure the Senate can confirm the individual. “

  4. #14729
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    How does “we” vote in your interest?

    China has clear private property rights. It might be different but private interest is well protected.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Property_law_in_China


    Right. Like I said, Jack Ma, which should end the argument. But, how do you think they cleared ancient Shanghai for present day Shanghai. Moved the millions of people off the banks of the rivers in order to build that Dam? Villages that were centuries old? How do you think the built the high speed train network? We'll never have high speed trains. The lawyers will get insanely rich. It would require a dictatorship and mass confescation of land from even the wealthy. Never happen. Over there, easy. Your private ownership is an illusion, a carrot for the ambitious.

    And I pay $3500 annual PROPERTY taxes on my condo. The state recognizes my ownership that much.

    You know the condo that fell down in Florida? They were thinking of a memorial, until the survivors and estates learned that shitty little plot is worth a hundred million bucks. And all those people have a piece of that.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  5. #14730
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    China has clear private property rights.
    Easily one of the dumber things said in this thread. Look, some rich bitch might have convinced you that they aren’t commies, but…. Yer wrong
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinp...on-11632150725

  6. #14731
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    Quote Originally Posted by dunfree View Post
    Easily one of the dumber things said in this thread. Look, some rich bitch might have convinced you that they aren’t commies, but…. Yer wrong
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/xi-jinp...on-11632150725
    Thats paywall so cut the part in it about private property rights and changes to law. No doubt the WALL STREET JOURNAL is going to be anything but pro wall street.

  7. #14732
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Xi probably feels like the all and powerful Oz. He has the power to watch other countries markets hit the crapper if he doesn't step in. He might throw Evergrande a small bone on one of the interest payments, or maybe stipulates that the BOC will act as lender of last resort to avoid a meltdown of Chinese markets. Or, Xi could just sit on his hands and let the central planned market go free market to just see what happens. But, I don't think the all and powerful Xi wants to be seen as that leader who let China's economy implode just so he could teach the speculators and rich Chinese a lesson.
    So, therefore, just like Japan, protecting zombie companies as the population grows very old very fast.

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  8. #14733
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    Our zombies surviving on cheap credit are much better:

    In this note, we provide a panoramic view of the prevalence of zombie firms in the U.S. economy. Our main assessment is that zombie firms—defined as nonviable firms with low growth prospects that survive on cheap credit—are not an important feature of the U.S. economy, so far, and did not benefit disproportionally from the improvement in credit market conditions resulting from the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Despite this assessment, it is too early to dismiss concerns that the current economic conditions may be breeding new zombie firms. The COVID-19 pandemic is an economic shock of unprecedented magnitude, and while its potential scarring effects on the economy are difficult to predict, it may severely damage some sectors of the economy, turning many firms into zombies. Whether this risk materializes can only be assessed as new data become available and will depend on the strength of the economic recovery post pandemic.

    https://www.federalreserve.gov/econr...l-20210730.htm

  9. #14734
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    Man I hope we don't get another dovish fed chair.

  10. #14735
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    There's a pretty wide spectrum between regulatory capture and central planning. I'd say the US is currently somewhere around 75% of the way towards regulatory capture and China is somewhere around 65% of the way towards central planning.

    It would sure be nice (and a hell of a lot cheaper) if we had the leadership and political will to get out in front of problems before they become problems. Instead, we're cool with the corporations basically doing whatever they want. At worst, they get a slap on the wrist after the fact. Tech/finance/manufacturing/pharma/education/medicine. Is there a single industry in the US that isn't completely fucked up and who actually pays fines or gets reorged in proportion to the damage that they cause?

    Mix in the lack of industry regulation with the realities of our centrally planned monetary policy and IMHO you have a recipe for disaster. We play fast and loose with monetary policy and then allow people to utilize that policy to harm the average American before things can be fixed. I'm not an anti-fed conspiracy person, but we need the legislative branch of the government to protect against the moral hazards of whatever our current monetary policy is.

    It certainly seems like cheap debt is fueling massive, levered speculative bubbles in RE and equities and people in the in crowd are using federal reserve dollars to steal the American dream away from everyday normal people. Want to buy billions in RE? No prob! Just issue some bonds and have the federal reserve buy them. Or, go public and let the federal reserve backstop your shares and then take on levered debt from other entities who sold bonds to the federal reserve.
    can you see my bingo arms swinging?

  11. #14736
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    Quote Originally Posted by shroom View Post
    can you see my bingo arms swinging?
    Lol, that probably hit every square.

    Re: Evergrande this is a very interesting thread- https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/...734919175?s=09

    (Originally retweeted by Michael Burry)

    And this is a really interesting response- https://twitter.com/hellenomania/sta...819280899?s=19

  12. #14737
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Lol, that probably hit every square.

    Re: Evergrande this is a very interesting thread- https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/...734919175?s=09

    (Originally retweeted by Michael Burry)

    And this is a really interesting response- https://twitter.com/hellenomania/sta...819280899?s=19
    I had read through the original one, real good. Hadn't seen the response, interesting. Not sure I buy all of it, but definitely likely that some mal intent was used. Not sure i'd go do far to call it warfare.

    https://twitter.com/TheLastBearSta1/...71695685283847
    This take was pretty good as well.

  13. #14738
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Lol, that probably hit every square.

    Re: Evergrande this is a very interesting thread- https://twitter.com/INArteCarloDoss/...734919175?s=09

    (Originally retweeted by Michael Burry)

    And this is a really interesting response- https://twitter.com/hellenomania/sta...819280899?s=19
    the first is the standard summary, but the question always was timing. Still is. Paper over, kick the can.

    the second? Aren’t those 3 markets partially distorted by mainland Chinese looking to park wealth out of the reach of the PRC? And the rest of it is just wumao bullshit; China, the us & Europe are entangled with their policy excess, none possible without the other 2, each one thinking they are “best”.

  14. #14739
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    My orders I set last Thursday filled today, kinda. Picked up 100 shares of CRLBF at my wanted $8/per. BBBY came within $.04 of filling my $23 limit order in regular hours. Watched it dip between $23.12 and $23.02 in after hours. With 4 minutes left in the session I changed my limit to $23.02, 2 minutes to go it showed my order filled. Go look at my positions and sure enough 100 shares showing.

    I immediately started looking at options strategies, looked around and set an order for Oct 22, $24 strike and set a limit sell at $2.25. Order rejected. Go look and my buy order now shows 37 shares bought, and 63 expired. My order was partially filled. !

    Kinda wary of setting a buy order for tomorrow and having the 63 shares show up twice, once on margin. Guess I’ll just wait till the morning and see how it shakes out. Gonna be bummed if it flares in the morning and my call would’ve sold and peters off in the afternoon. (Which was my plan, lol.)

    My CMPS call still hasn’t sold, the underlying has been swooning. I’ve been tempted to lower my limit, but I’m liking selling calls on things that are rising in the short term, buying them back in the short term swoons.

  15. #14740
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    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    My orders I set last Thursday filled today, kinda. Picked up 100 shares of CRLBF at my wanted $8/per. BBBY came within $.04 of filling my $23 limit order in regular hours. Watched it dip between $23.12 and $23.02 in after hours. With 4 minutes left in the session I changed my limit to $23.02, 2 minutes to go it showed my order filled. Go look at my positions and sure enough 100 shares showing.

    I immediately started looking at options strategies, looked around and set an order for Oct 22, $24 strike and set a limit sell at $2.25. Order rejected. Go look and my buy order now shows 37 shares bought, and 63 expired. My order was partially filled. !

    Kinda wary of setting a buy order for tomorrow and having the 63 shares show up twice, once on margin. Guess I’ll just wait till the morning and see how it shakes out. Gonna be bummed if it flares in the morning and my call would’ve sold and peters off in the afternoon. (Which was my plan, lol.)

    My CMPS call still hasn’t sold, the underlying has been swooning. I’ve been tempted to lower my limit, but I’m liking selling calls on things that are rising in the short term, buying them back in the short term swoons.
    As long as your order was placed as in force for the day, it shouldn’t double fill tomorrow if you place another. If you placed a GTC order than maybe wait and see. If your old order is still in the que during PM or at open, then cancel and replace.

    CMPS has been interesting, I tied up all of my shares with 11/19 $40c and they have slowly been decaying away. Will wait until much closer to expiry as I’m fine to let them go at $40 plus my $900 per contract.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  16. #14741
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    The average peak-to-trough drawdown for the S&P 500 in a given calendar year since 1928 is around -16%.

    There have been 53 double-digit drawdowns overall in this time frame.

    The average loss for those corrections is -23%, lasting more than 200 days from peak to trough.

    Over the past 93 years the U.S. stock market has fallen 20% or worse on 21 different occasions.2 That’s once every 4-and-a-half years.

    It’s fallen 30% or worse 13 times or one out of every 7 years.

    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...et-correction/

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  17. #14742
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    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  18. #14743
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Well Evergrande did miss a debt payment. They did make a small one to on shore China debt holders. So, they are going to screw every other foreign debt holder first, which makes sense. Seems like biz as usual.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  19. #14744
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    Well Evergrande did miss a debt payment. They did make a small one to on shore China debt holders. So, they are going to screw every other foreign debt holder first, which makes sense. Seems like biz as usual.
    This guy has been calling for an RE crash, or, more politely, a restructuring, in China for a long time. But, he's just sitting there with a bowl of popcorn like a lot of us, waiting to see if it's business as usual, or something different.

    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/09/2...-sell-off.html

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

  20. #14745
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    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Evergrande Auto was worth $87 billion without ever building a car, hardly a sink of corporate resources. Actually a great return.

    the soccer team was both a profitable investment, and a suck up to the rulers.

  21. #14746
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    WRBY?

  22. #14747
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    I got my other 63 shares of BBBY a few days later after my order partially filled. I waited till it came back down to my original limit of $23.02. Ouch! Picked the wrong time to get back into that, heh.

    I’m still bullish on them and think the last quarters numbers won’t continue, I hope. If I had more cash laying around I’d be buying more on the dip.

    I’ve taken a beating on CMPS as well, I missed the boat by pricing my option too high. Now I think I’m just gonna hold outright and see how the next trial results shake out.

  23. #14748
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    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    I got my other 63 shares of BBBY a few days later after my order partially filled. I waited till it came back down to my original limit of $23.02. Ouch! Picked the wrong time to get back into that, heh.

    I’m still bullish on them and think the last quarters numbers won’t continue, I hope. If I had more cash laying around I’d be buying more on the dip.

    I’ve taken a beating on CMPS as well, I missed the boat by pricing my option too high. Now I think I’m just gonna hold outright and see how the next trial results shake out.

    Why bullish? BBBY issues guidance and has missed that guidance by a mile almost every quarter. 15 months ago it was on the verge of bankruptcy.

    VIX is still low considering the declines. I'm surprised that GME continues to hang in there. It was interesting today that some of the beaten down ARKK stocks did ok. Perhaps that end of quarter rotation?

  24. #14749
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Why bullish? BBBY issues guidance and has missed that guidance by a mile almost every quarter. 15 months ago it was on the verge of bankruptcy.
    I still think Tritton will turn it around. I like the move towards house brands (much better margins), more of an online presence, they closed a number of non-performing stores, a redo of stores stacked to the ceiling, and a move towards less of a coupon driven marketing theory. (Although my wife is still getting coupons from them.)

    Covid resurgence and supply chain issues were blamed for that horrible ass quarterly. As someone that is also dealing with supply chain issues I can relate, I also think it’ll be passing, much like inflation. Big issuance of cash into the marketplace had everyone with cash to spend, lotta people sick and not able to provide goods and services, perfect storm for inflation.

    I predict a movement back to the $23 level by the end of October. Buy the dip!

    Disclaimer: My recommendations are by no means a guarantee of financial success, as a matter of fact you may lose money, and you probably will.


    Heh

  25. #14750
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    an entire generation of degenerate gamblers and speculators.


    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/202...akes-no-sense/

    The world is perfect. Appreciate the details.

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