Page 680 of 729 FirstFirst ... 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 ... LastLast
Results 16,976 to 17,000 of 18222
  1. #16976
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Missoula
    Posts
    412
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Anywhere. Just my interpretation of the long term chart. There is some support around $75 from 2019. It’s breaking down below a well tested low and previous high around $80.
    Sounds like Biden should be loading up on futures to refill the SPR.

  2. #16977
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829
    I don’t think putting a floor on price was a wise idea. If Ukraine resolves prices will collapse.

  3. #16978
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829
    Future supply chain stress nonexistent per November ⁦@KansasCityFed⁩ Index … outlook for supplier delivery times has crashed to lowest on record

  4. #16979
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Missoula
    Posts
    412
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I don’t think putting a floor on price was a wise idea. If Ukraine resolves prices will collapse.
    How so? Russian oil is still being sold in the global market. Will their production increase?

    China will reopen at some point as well will they not? I think they've been a couple million barrels per day below their baseline. Plus OPEC is unable to meet their targets.

  5. #16980
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829
    WTI price has pivoted around $50 for a couple decades. It wasn’t that long ago you couldn’t give it away.

    Those points you made are not new. US and China trending toward more EV use. Less consumption. Random data points are just that.

  6. #16981
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Missoula
    Posts
    412
    Sure, but it sounds like you're saying that global demand has peaked? Not seeing that assertion anywhere else. Most forecasts I've read still have world demand increasing as more of the worlds poor move towards middle income. India is another big one.

    EVs are great, but still seems like we need to front-load a ton of oil to get there. Mining trucks all run on diesel for example. If you're that certain of a price collapse do you have a big bet set up for that direction? What's your forecast for global demand in 2025 for example and why? With data.

  7. #16982
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    That’s the thing about chart analysis. It’s not science. My view of the chart says $50

    Here’s some data points though:

    Shipping rates collapsed. Ships sitting idle. Major source of diesel demand

    FedEx and ups grounded planes. More diesel.

    I suppose the hard deadline on sanctions next month could offer some support.

  8. #16983
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    If future demand is a known known, why is price near a 52 week low? Down almost 50% from its high. What’s another $25 to $50?

    Especially after a 10% correction in DXY. If the dollar strengthens again, more pressure on prices

  9. #16984
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    5,595
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    That’s the thing about chart analysis. It’s not science.
    You must have missed the chart analysis I did for Bitcoin.

  10. #16985
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829
    One more point..

    Price is lower than when OPEC cut production. All the political hand wringing was just that.

  11. #16986
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829
    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    You must have missed the chart analysis I did for Bitcoin.
    Charts are a tool. A way of measuring risk reward and entry points.

    I would call the risk/reward ratio on WTI about even so it would be a weak conviction short

  12. #16987
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829
    Fed should use QT to tighten policy from here. It’s more important to roll off the balance sheet. If they weaken demand too much they won’t be able to sell bonds. That said, Fed overtightening is related to that. Advertising for buyers.

  13. #16988
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Location
    Last Best City in the Last Best Place
    Posts
    7,343
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    If future demand is a known known, why is price near a 52 week low?
    Because emotion drives oil prices as much as actual supply/demand?

  14. #16989
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829
    Quote Originally Posted by yeahman View Post
    Because emotion drives oil prices as much as actual supply/demand?
    That’s what a chart potentially sorts out. Price is truth.

  15. #16990
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    5,595
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Charts are a tool. A way of measuring risk reward and entry points.

    I would call the risk/reward ratio on WTI about even so it would be a weak conviction short
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	75120C1A-9107-4CCD-A341-CEFB3D820C1B.jpg 
Views:	62 
Size:	151.4 KB 
ID:	434484

  16. #16991
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,829
    What do you want? A medal?

  17. #16992
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    13,780
    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	75120C1A-9107-4CCD-A341-CEFB3D820C1B.jpg 
Views:	62 
Size:	151.4 KB 
ID:	434484
    Wait...

    So line go down??




  18. #16993
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Squaw valley
    Posts
    4,671
    Oil price has gone in every recession. So if you believe there's a recession coming, then you should believe oil will go down.

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

  19. #16994
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    5,595
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    What do you want? A medal?
    Sure, I’ll take one if you’re offering.

  20. #16995
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    5,574
    Oil prices are going down in large part because commodity shortages are always followed by a glut. See also lithium and lithium-ion batteries, for example. There have been lots of famous bets won using this this principle over the years made at time when commodity prices were high.

    The most important markets when it comes to inflation are labor markets. It's the price -> wage -> price spiral that matters. With that in mind, it will be a Fed win if they manage to get inflation down to bellow 4% in the next year or so.

    There are obviously a range of possibilities/probabilities and one of those, the one I think most likely at the moment, is an end to letting inflation run and an end to historically low interest rates.

  21. #16996
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    7,017
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    With that in mind, it will be a Fed win if they manage to get inflation down to bellow 4% in the next year or so.
    1. I bet $37 core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023

    2. It won’t be a fed win if it throws growth negative, employment close to 5% (which is really higher since participation is still kinda low), and what we would consider a moderate to significant recession.
    Decisions Decisions

  22. #16997
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    5,574
    Ok, we both acknowledge the Fed can lower inflation by causing a recession and higher unemployment. So the bet is whether the Fed can lower inflation and at the same time manage a 'soft landing' by this time next year.

    I'll take the bet if you make it 12-mo CPI and to be fair it's a push if core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023. So I win if both core and CPI are greater than 3%, you win if both are below 3%, and it's a push if only one or the other is under 3%.

  23. #16998
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    5,595
    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    1. I bet $37 core inflation is under 3% by Dec 1 2023
    Not really much risk on that bet since CPI using current rent prices instead of the lagged prices used in official CPI already shows inflation under 3%:

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	C2630BCA-57AB-47D7-B3FC-A1792C88DE27.jpeg 
Views:	55 
Size:	563.1 KB 
ID:	434585

    https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/stat...NQR_Apz8JU8Iqg

  24. #16999
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    5,574
    Yeah, that's a good sign but it remains to be seen whether lower rents are a trend or seasonal. TBH this isn't a bet I'd mind losing. And if on the other hand I'm right then TIPS are currently underpriced. It's also rare historically for inflation to come down really fast so if it happens this time it would be an outlier.

  25. #17000
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    5,595
    Quote Originally Posted by MultiVerse View Post
    Yeah, that's a good sign but it remains to be seen whether lower rents are a trend or seasonal. TBH this isn't a bet I'd mind losing. And if on the other hand I'm right then TIPS are currently underpriced. It's also rare historically for inflation to come down really fast so if it happens this time it would be an outlier.
    I don’t know anything about the measure he’s using, but I assume it’s seasonally adjusted since he mentioned previously that he wasn’t using Appartment List because it wasn’t seasonally adjusted.

Similar Threads

  1. Who voted for Bush/Cheney in '00 or '04?
    By Bud Green in forum General Ski / Snowboard Discussion
    Replies: 281
    Last Post: 04-14-2006, 11:44 PM
  2. Risotto Recipes - What you got?
    By skiaholik in forum The Padded Room
    Replies: 41
    Last Post: 03-29-2006, 06:03 PM
  3. Did American Ski Company get delisted from the stock market?
    By Free Range Lobster in forum General Ski / Snowboard Discussion
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 09-06-2005, 06:13 AM
  4. Bear Activists Killed and Eaten by Bears in Katmai
    By Lane Meyer in forum TGR Forum Archives
    Replies: 30
    Last Post: 10-09-2003, 08:43 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •