Is the stock market going to tank?

[summit]

There's a thought that the Fed won't aggressively raise rates to combat inflation because of the Q1 economic contraction.

If the Fed doesn't raise rates significantly, I'd bet we head towards stagflation in which case asset prices may well continue to rise. If the Fed raises rates enough to combat inflation, I'd bet we head to recession.

Would you rather control inflation and have people out of work or have full employment with poor people increasingly not being able to afford to live?

In the modern US, we've always (eventually) chosen recession over stagflation. Lack of safety nets and regulatory control make stagflation risky IMHO.

Useful explanation thank you.

So... admin pushes for less aggressive rates until after the midterm?

[dschane]

So... admin pushes for less aggressive rates until after the midterm?

I think inflation is a political hot button so they push for whatever appears to be the strongest inflation-fighting measures and, right now, I think that's pushing for aggressive rate hikes.

[Kevo]

Useful explanation thank you.

So... admin pushes for less aggressive rates until after the midterm?

Inflation is a tax on the poor. The right thing to do is to control inflation, but the fed and the administration doesn't seem to be too worried about tackling it. They're a year behind at least.

The federal reserve is supposed to be independent of influence from any administration, but IMO they haven't been acting independently since Trump started calling rates.

Biden appointing JPow seemed to me like a play for political cover- allow the existing fed regime to stay in power and do unscrupulous things that have yet to be regulated in exchange for the federal reserve propping up asset prices for political points.

[dunfree]

I think inflation is a political hot button so they push for whatever appears to be the strongest inflation-fighting measures and, right now, I think that's pushing for aggressive rate hikes.

inflation is a really hot button in places, and amongst people, who aren’t predisposed to voting D. It ain’t uniform. Vegan renters who use public transport in SF haven’t seen much inflation. Home buying carnivores who want a new pickup and boat in Atlanta have found alot.


fuck off kevo. Out of one side of your mouth you brag about how wonderful salary increases in your industry are, the other you pretend to care about the poors to negate the impact of those increases when the poors are doing well. “Fighting inflation” means more unemployment, more people doing worse.

[NakedShorts]

Recession or not we will have a bout of Stagflation. The question is for how long.

Our current issues are on the supply side and the Fed pretends it can control the demand side so they do not have the correct toolkit for this one.

Then we have politicians that have preached a green new world and Russia is on track to DOUBLE its energy revenue from last year. Nobody wants to drill baby drill because they ran on an empty promise of eliminating fossil fuels.

Unfortunately, the problems will persist, become worse, and yes cause the economy to falter.

However, the market is not the economy and Capital Flight from around the globe cannot be taken lightly. The USA is still the cleanest dirty shirt and we will remain the most robust economy. However, I would not be surprised to see 20% inflation because almost everything I purchase has already gone up more than that.

So yes we face a grind. Elevated Valuations, Elevated Inflation, Rising Interest Rates, and then The Explosion of National Debt to pay for all of it.

We really need to start over and kick EVERY politician out and start with a crop that has some knowledge of how to run a business and how the global economy used to function.

Believe me when I say we are NEVER going back to a pre-covid world. So get out and enjoy the summer before shit gets real next year and the whole world is brought into the WAR.

[summit]

Well if asset prices track inflation, that's nice if you have lots of securities, but how are you hedging against 20% inflation? Fixed interest debt works lol

War? Defenz Stonks!

[liv2ski]

Out of one side of your mouth you brag about how wonderful salary increases in your industry are, the other you pretend to care about the poors to negate the impact of those increases when the poors are doing well. “Fighting inflation” means more unemployment, more people doing worse.

This fuckin place. A guy is doing well but still gives a shit about people that aren't and the cunts in here throw shit at them for not being pure enough. Go fuck yourself.

[dunfree]

This fuckin place. A guy is doing well but still gives a shit about people that aren't and the cunts in here throw shit at them for not being pure enough. Go fuck yourself.

im bad because I like a world where the poors have every acces to a job? If inflation is a tax on the poor Whats 10% unemployment?

[liv2ski]

You are bad because your post to Kevo was a cunt post. But that is how this joint rolls, so carry on.

[stalefish3169]

Inflation is a tax on the poor. The right thing to do is to control inflation, but the fed and the administration doesn't seem to be too worried about tackling it. They're a year behind at least.

The federal reserve is supposed to be independent of influence from any administration, but IMO they haven't been acting independently since Trump started calling rates.

Biden appointing JPow seemed to me like a play for political cover- allow the existing fed regime to stay in power and do unscrupulous things that have yet to be regulated in exchange for the federal reserve propping up asset prices for political points.

We've got a place for you, Kevo.

[dunfree]

You are bad because your post to Kevo was a cunt post. But that is how this joint rolls, so carry on.

yeah, I think whining trophy real estate and other rich people things are too expensive and arguing the solution is pain for the poor, and pretending you care about the poor is twisted. I mean, this place had a whole fucking thread about how “inflation” is $400 ski goggles

[liv2ski]

arguing the solution is pain for the poor, and pretending you care about the poor is twisted.

Pretty sure no one has ever said what you posted. I am done commenting on your stoopid comments.

[dunfree]

Pretty sure no one has ever said what you posted. I am done commenting on your stoopid comments.

“Inflation is a tax on the poorThe right thing to do is to control inflation, but the fed and the administration doesn't seem to be too worried about tackling it. They're a year behind at least. ” is a direct quote.

[stalefish3169]

AMZN rekt

[Kevo]

Full employment means nothing if a significant portion of workers can't afford rent, food and gas and if the low rates fueling full employment allow institutional investors to outcompete labor for home ownership. Our current system is not responsibly governing. It's killing the American dream.

Comp adjustments in my industry were OK last year, so I guess I don't get to have an opinion though.


@Stalefish3169- appreciate it. I've been onboard for a while, but don't actively trade and I think I've only participated in that thread once or twice.

[stalefish3169]

Full employment means nothing if a significant portion of workers can't afford rent, food and gas and if the low rates fueling full employment allow institutional investors to outcompete labor for home ownership. Our current system is not responsibly governing. It's killing the American dream.

Comp adjustments in my industry were OK last year, so I guess I don't get to have an opinion though.


@Stalefish3169- appreciate it. I've been onboard for a while, but don't actively trade and I think I've only participated in that thread once or twice.

All good. Mostly just posted that to piss off dumbfree. lol

[dunfree]

Full employment means nothing if a significant portion of workers can't afford rent, food and gas and if the low rates fueling full employment allow institutional investors to outcompete labor for home ownership. Our current system is not responsibly governing. It's killing the American dream.

You got yours and fuck the poor, with some bullshitting. True 0”privilege to say “ a job means nothing”. Yeah, they are totally better off with nothing.

[summit]

On trading GDP to fight inflation
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/fed-...192422383.html

The mission of the Fed is to control inflation while promoting full employment...

[MultiVerse]

To the extent prices rise in response to adverse supply developments, that's evidence a unit of account is working well, not badly. So yeah in the short-term, food/energy prices rising faster than incomes overwhelms essentially anything anyone has to say... but if the Fed can unwind some of the overheating without triggering an outright recession then you have a scenario where output is growing while demand is falling making it only a matter of time until supply catches up with demand.

[NakedShorts]

^^^ Multiverse does not get it.

Do you understand how farms work? The issue will be eating. Just like in Covid it was Charmin. If the farmers don't grow the food it doesn't really matter how rosey the economy looks or what the Fed does to interest rates.

[Kevo]

You got yours and fuck the poor, with some bullshitting. True 0”privilege to say “ a job means nothing”. Yeah, they are totally better off with nothing.

Maybe you're right.

We should just keep interest rates low forever and accept nothing less than full employment under any circumstances. People are better off with 8.5% or 10% or 20% CPI inflation and 20% or 40% housing inflation so long as they have a job. If they can't afford food or housing, they can just pick up an extra job or two?

[rod9301]

You got yours and fuck the poor, with some bullshitting. True 0”privilege to say “ a job means nothing”. Yeah, they are totally better off with nothing.

Truly though, of you don't make a lot of money, you better not get sick.

My wife, 47, pays 1200 a month for health insurance, with a10k deductible.

A friend of mine buys diabetes meds, 850 a month. In France, same med, 110 a month.

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

[dunfree]

Maybe you're right.

We should just keep interest rates low forever and accept nothing less than full employment under any circumstances. People are better off with 8.5% or 10% or 20% CPI inflation and 20% or 40% housing inflation so long as they have a job. If they can't afford food or housing, they can just pick up an extra job or two?

oh fuck off. The systemic inequality in the us goes back decades, it’s not a new now problem because dh mountain bike parts are expensive. 10 years ago people were committing suicide because they couldn’t get enough hours or jobs to pay their bills

you wanna blame someone? Blame Xi and the insane implementation of zero Covid

[4matic]

Costs affecting AMZN. It was pretty obvious. $2k still on the table

[Kevo]

oh fuck off. The systemic inequality in the us goes back decades, it’s not a new now problem because dh mountain bike parts are expensive

you wanna blame someone? Blame Xi and the insane implementation of zero Covid

I'm sure you're a true champion of the people with well founded, perfectly intentioned reasons for all of your beliefs. It's everyone else that's the problem.

At least we can agree on Xi being responsible for the supply side of the equation and we can also agree on systematic inequality.