Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

Once again equities become a relative buy. ABCD past 17k Dow, 2k S&P. Higher volatility should stay though.

Relative to what? Previous highs?

[Bromontana]

Relative to what? Previous highs?

Yes, from a trading perspective.

[mud]

Trick or treat:

Fed's Bullard says QE3 could last longer than October.

Doubtful.

Bullard is a known dove blowhard and the rest of the Fed members have already drawn the line in the sand that by the end of the month it is over.

Yellen said the end of QE3 its not time based and they will only look at how the economy is improving. Unemployment claims dropped last week to their lowest level in 14 years. The Fed will weigh this data more than what is going on in stocks. Claims decreased by 23K to 264K last week, the lowest reading since April 2000. The four-week average of claims declined to 283,500, the lowest since June 2000. This is very good news for the Fed.

Usually a sustained drop in Claims signals a pickup in hiring. If the rest of this month readings shows further declines in Claims, we should expect Octobers Jobs numbers to be much better than the 248K jobs added in September. QE3 will end this month then the Fed speak will revolve around when they will raise their funds rate. You think the last few days have been bad, wait until investors start shitting their pants when that rate goes up.

[4matic]

Yes, from a trading perspective.

What's the trade and time frame? Buy here with no stop?

[Benny Profane]

You think the last few days have been bad, wait until investors start shitting their pants when that rate goes up.

So, with that statement, you contradict everything you just said. Don't you remember when, last year, they just hinted at the famous "taper"? Worldwide bond and equity markets went batshit, and that was without any kind of action. Face it, they have a ton more data to deal with than UE claims, of all things. What's that mean, anyway? We ran out of people to lay off, and that happened about three years ago, in meaningful numbers.

There will be no rate rise or taper or anything until at least 2016. At least. Expect them to stimulate more.

[mud]

^^^ reading comprehension fail.

[Benny Profane]

How so?

[Brock Landers]

I just can't take Benny seriously. Not even a little bit. Any time the market has a little correction, there he is telling us everyone is doomed. Meanwhile the last 10 years the S&P is up 8% annualized. Which is roughly what it's done over the last century. Oil down from 95 to 80!!! Shit!!! Zerohedge was right!

US businesses are flush with cash on balance sheets, defaults very low, tapering already nearly complete. Housing has improved, GDP has stabilized and grown slowly (wasn't that the expectation nearly universally???slow growth??? So why is the slow growth such a surprise to some). What changed in Europe over the last month? Spain and Italy are debt riddled nations mooching off Germany? This is new? Europe is still a bit of a shitshow overall?

China has actually stabilized and moving to more of a consumer driven economy with less emphasis/power in the shadow banking system is good in the long term. And 7% growth isn't 'China crashing'. It's a healthier long term economy.

Not sure what he's so worried about anyway with all his money under his mattress.

[Mazderati]

Not sure what he's so worried about anyway with all his money under his mattress.

Or is it the Barbasol with the false bottom.

[4matic]

Meanwhile the last 10 years the S&P is up 8% annualized..

Last 15 years was 4.6%. I don't put much weight in backward looking calculations in a zero rate environment. Too much too fast on low volume in my view. Volatility in currency and rates means something. It always has. Bottom line for me: SP500 tests the breakout on the monthly chart at 1610+- More work to do on the downside.

I've overstayed my welcome in bonds. Time to get busy.

[Benny Profane]

I just can't take Benny seriously. Not even a little bit. Any time the market has a little correction, there he is telling us everyone is doomed. Meanwhile the last 10 years the S&P is up 8% annualized. Which is roughly what it's done over the last century. Oil down from 95 to 80!!! Shit!!! Zerohedge was right!

US businesses are flush with cash on balance sheets, defaults very low, tapering already nearly complete. Housing has improved, GDP has stabilized and grown slowly (wasn't that the expectation nearly universally???slow growth??? So why is the slow growth such a surprise to some). What changed in Europe over the last month? Spain and Italy are debt riddled nations mooching off Germany? This is new? Europe is still a bit of a shitshow overall?

China has actually stabilized and moving to more of a consumer driven economy with less emphasis/power in the shadow banking system is good in the long term. And 7% growth isn't 'China crashing'. It's a healthier long term economy.

Not sure what he's so worried about anyway with all his money under his mattress.

China has.......stabilized? Hoo boy, good luck with that one. The shit is just now starting to fly off that fan. How in the world can you say that they are transitioning to a consumer economy so easily? Where's the evidence? It's an economy built on exports and massive infrastructure projects that would make the Egyptians of old drop their jaws in amazement, but about 75% of the population still live in day to day poverty, most considering slave labor in an IPad factory a good job to aspire to. There is no rule of law, transparent financial system, or any kind of freedom of speech or even freedom of movement within the country for most. And an entrenched, super powerful and wealthy elite pulling the strings. You tell me how that's going to easily transition to a Leave it to Beaver. Hell, what have they invented in twenty years? Where's the innovation?

I'm not calling doom. I'm still 70% equities. You're right, there's a ton of cash out there to float the market. But it's beyond obvious that major parts of the world are heading into bad times. It's good to be an American, as usual. But lay off the happy talk for billions. It isn't going to be pretty. A lot of the oil exporters need 100 to 120 oil to maintain their one trick pony economies, and that ain't happening for some time.

[Danno]

Last 15 years was 4.6%.

Cherry picking the time periods changes the return. Using 15 years includes the tech crash but excludes most of the gains leading up to it, so it's not surprising that the number is lower. If you include those pre-crash gains by going to 20 years, it's back up over 9%.

Of course, we all buy in at cherry picked times (hence the reason dollar cost averaging is a good strategy), but his point is still valid. If you buy right before a crash or must sell right after, you're fucked. But over the long haul, these crashes that seemed HUDGE at the time have proven to be no more than bumps on the road of a solid investment. But it is true that past performance is no guarantee, it's just that past performance, even recent past performance, backs Brock's overall point.

[4matic]

Cherry picking the time periods changes the return. Using 15 years includes the tech crash but excludes most of the gains leading up to it, so it's not surprising that the number is lower. If you include those pre-crash gains by going to 20 years, it's back up over 9%.

Of course, we all buy in at cherry picked times (hence the reason dollar cost averaging is a good strategy), but his point is still valid. If you buy right before a crash or must sell right after, you're fucked. But over the long haul, these crashes that seemed HUDGE at the time have proven to be no more than bumps on the road of a solid investment. But it is true that past performance is no guarantee, it's just that past performance, even recent past performance, backs Brock's overall point.

Isn't that what every equity salesman says? Buy and hold forever? They're like Realtors. Which was kind of my point on historical returns. It's like climate change. Is the past a forecast for the future when you have new variable? The variable now is ZIRP. At any time you can get your ass handed to you and it will be like an earthquake that takes decades to recover from. Risk is measured in permanent loss. So if you want to use 9% return as your forward risk measurement in a zero rate environment be my guest but you have put your risk of permanent loss at more than 3x the current risk free rate. Good luck with that. See Old Larry about nightmares.

[Danno]

Isn't that what every equity salesman says? Buy and hold forever? Which was kind of my point on historical returns. It's like climate change. Is the past a forecast for the future when you have new variable? The variable now is ZIRP. At any time you can get your ass handed you and it will be like an earthquake that takes decades to recover from. Risk is measured in permanent loss. So if you want to use 9% return as your forward risk measurement in a zero rate environment be my guest but you have put your risk of permanent loss at more than 3x the risk free rate. Good luck with that. See Old Larry about nightmares.

I'm not arguing that we will have 9% returns forever, fuck no. And you're right, it's not just a platitude, past performance is no guarantee because the rules of the game can change.

But it's not entirely clear what to do with that possibility from an investor POV. I mean, Benny knows what to do, which is run around screaming, but the rest of us? If you don't have enough to retire now, and need to save over the long term to retire 10, 15, 20, 25 years from now, what are you supposed to do except play the game the way it has always been played and hope for the best? That's not a rhetorical question, I'm honestly curious, what is the average schmoe investor with a day job (ie, me) supposed to do in the face of this brave new world?

[4matic]

I'm too old, too chicken, and have had enough curled up nightmares to answer that question. I've seen too many crashes..punch drunk. 2008 forced me to re-play a game I already had won. If your time frame is long enough set your risk expectations at a reasonable level and forget about it.

[Benny Profane]

I'm too old, too chicken, and have had enough curled up nightmares to answer that question. I've seen too many crashes..punch drunk. 2008 forced me to re-play a game I already had won. If your time frame is long enough set your risk expectations at a reasonable level and forget about it.

Took me 11 years to break even from 1999-2000.

[digitaldeath]

I really cant take many of you very seriously. half of you are true believers and the other half true fakers.

[4matic]

I really cant take many of you very seriously. half of you are true believers and the other half true fakers.

You shouldn't believe anything. Make your own truth.

[digitaldeath]

You shouldn't believe anything. Make your own truth.

thats what i do..... 9.2/10 booooyyyy

[iceman]

It'd be easier to take Benny seriously if we didn't know that he absolutely wants shit to completely fall apart. His life mission is to stand atop the smoking wreckage and say "I told you so."

Fun fucking mission.

[Bromontana]

What's the trade and time frame? Buy here with no stop?

No. Just a knee jerk reaction to a pretty abrupt UST shift you noted. The large indices are too crowded imo for simple minded TA. I'm practically a permabear when it comes to trading - only able to 'see' or have success on the short side. Long side moves are really hard for me to anticipate in NASDAQs, much less crowded indices.

At the moment I don't have an account for that, and the only exposure I have is to china. Their upside is the best 10yr long option I can see, and there is a lot of equity undervaluation stemming from legacy concerns over the integrity of reporting. As they continue to integrate into the more mature financial markets, I think the china discount will moderate alongside solid growth.

[Benny Profane]

It'd be easier to take Benny seriously if we didn't know that he absolutely wants shit to completely fall apart. His life mission is to stand atop the smoking wreckage and say "I told you so."

Fun fucking mission.

Oh c'mon, it's not like that. Things aren't going to fall apart here in America for a long time, especially where I live. These fuckers won.
But, it would be awesome to have a Euro at parity in my soon to be retirement and no inflation, because, from the numbers I run, inflation is my mortal enemy unless I pick the inflating stuff to invest in.

[4matic]

MSFT, CSCO, AAPL, INTC, GOOG, IBM, ORCL all very weak today and most with strong dividends. Is it simply rotation back to growth or something else? Is MSFT getting hammered because of the woman hater?

[Hugh Conway]

I just can't take

China has actually stabilized and moving to more of a consumer driven economy with less emphasis/power in the shadow banking system is good in the long term. And 7% growth isn't 'China crashing'. It's a healthier long term economy..

brock knows fuck all about what he speaks, quelle surprise form YAMTGRMBA shitbag. Everytime one of the TGR pump-dump-chumps jump on their dick to show Benny he's stupid (like mud!) it's amazing how the world gets dumber.

the china discount will dissappear when China stops being China. there've been dumb fucking gweilo queueing for a couple decades, clearly no signs of stopping.

what are you supposed to do except play the game the way it has always been played and hope for the best? That's not a rhetorical question, I'm honestly curious, what is the average schmoe investor with a day job (ie, me) supposed to do in the face of this brave new world?

It's not a "brave new world" it's the way the world mostly was. A bunch of dumbass day jobbers owning stocks is a very recent phenomena.

[Bromontana]

Is MSFT getting hammered because of the woman hater?

Haven't you heard? Their best prospect left for the clippers

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