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  1. #151
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    a black monday tomorrow??? even if not, this could be a very volatile week.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  2. #152
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    In theory the long term rates should be inversely related to the funds rate. The Fed increases the funds rate to control/decrease inflation. The long term bond rates are highly dependent on expected inflation rates. Therefore, if the Fed takes action to control inflation, long term bonds should rally.

    That being said, in the short term, sentiment drives the rates more than fundamentals.
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    The ten year failed miserably at the funds rate, 5.25, twice. It's too high. The funds rate should have never been above 4.50. The good news is we have Bernanke to clean up this mess.

  3. #153
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    The NYC retail scene is feeling it already. We took a shot in the ass last week, even the tire kickers are getting scarce and the ones that are coming around are feeling cheap.

  4. #154
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I'm looking for the CRB to rollover soon
    looks like the crb is rolling over uphill ...
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  5. #155
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    Look out.. Monday could be ugly.

  6. #156
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    Strong downward movement on Friday.

    Two days to let steam blow off and calm peoples fears, or two days to let anxiety build, then explode onto the market on opening bell Monday morning.

    Oofffhh, the tension is palpable.

  7. #157
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    Quote Originally Posted by MeatPuppet View Post
    Strong downward movement on Friday.

    Two days to let steam blow off and calm peoples fears, or two days to let anxiety build, then explode onto the market on opening bell Monday morning.

    Oofffhh, the tension is palpable.
    yeah, this week might be very important for and set the tone for at least the next few months... the buy the dips versus the sell the rallies war is on.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  8. #158
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    Rates down, gasoline down, oil down, gold down, grains down. Commodities are down big in general. We'll see negative inflation in coming months. If Bernanke gets it right tomorrow, and I suspect he will, there should be a pretty good relief rally for equities.

  9. #159
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Rates down, gasoline down, oil down, gold down, grains down. Commodities are down big in general. We'll see negative inflation in coming months. If Bernanke gets it right tomorrow, and I suspect he will, there should be a pretty good relief rally for equities.
    grains weren't down, especially wheat, but you had the rest of it right, except for that negative inflation prediction i don't think a interest rate cut matters for stocks. todays close makes the technical indicators turn bullish. it would not be a great shock for the djia to go up 500 more points this week even if the fed sits tight.

    p.s. i think wheat futures are headed for $7.00+
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  10. #160
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    grains weren't down, especially wheat, but you had the rest of it right, except for that negative inflation prediction i don't think a interest rate cut matters for stocks. todays close makes the technical indicators turn bullish. it would not be a great shock for the djia to go up 500 more points this week even if the fed sits tight.

    p.s. i think wheat futures are headed for $7.00+
    Grains were down early in the day. Corn is vulnerable to a major decline since there isn't enough ethanol capacity to use all the surplus grain.

    Bernanke getting it right doesn't mean a rate cut. It's the wording of his statement and Ben is a genius so expect good things.

    CRB was down 2% points today and closed right on it's low.

    Where is the inflation you are so sure about? I don't see it..
    Last edited by 4matic; 08-06-2007 at 03:20 PM.

  11. #161
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Grains were down early in the day. Corn is vulnerable to a major decline since there isn't enough ethanol capacity to use all the surplus grain.

    Bernanke getting it right doesn't mean a rate cut. It's the wording of his statement and Ben is a genius so expect good things.

    CRB was down 2% points today and closed right on it's low.

    Where is the inflation you are so sure about? I don't see it..
    your hero bernanke is seemingly more aware/cautious about inflation than you are, at least in some of his past comments. but maybe tomorrow he will downplay it.

    the crb did have a bearish day, but imo will be higher at years end than today. however, i do think gas prices have at least had a short term top.

    grains. yep, were is the operative word. wheat and corn didn't close lower. (disclosure.. i have bought december corn futures) all the fundamental bad news is in for corn. usda report friday will determine short term direction, but if october, and/or november report numbers are smaller, dec. corn has a chance to get to 3.85. wheat yields were poor in usa, europe, and australia. big shortage of high quality wheat, how how it goes depends on how desperate end users become.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  12. #162
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    your hero bernanke is seemingly more aware/cautious about inflation than you are, at least in some of his past comments. but maybe tomorrow he will downplay it.
    .
    .

    July statement:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardd.../testimony.htm

    However, with long-term inflation expectations contained, futures prices suggesting that investors expect energy and other commodity prices to flatten out, and pressures in both labor and product markets likely to ease modestly, core inflation should edge a bit lower,, on net, over the remainder of this year and next year. The central tendency of FOMC participants’ forecasts for core PCE inflation--2 to 2-1/4 percent for 2007 and 1-3/4 to 2 percent in 2008--is unchanged from February. If energy prices level off as currently anticipated, overall inflation should slow to a pace close to that of core inflation in coming quarters.

    Good luck long corn..

  13. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    July statement:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardd.../testimony.htm

    However, with long-term inflation expectations contained, futures prices suggesting that investors expect energy and other commodity prices to flatten out, and pressures in both labor and product markets likely to ease modestly, core inflation should edge a bit lower,, on net, over the remainder of this year and next year. The central tendency of FOMC participants’ forecasts for core PCE inflation--2 to 2-1/4 percent for 2007 and 1-3/4 to 2 percent in 2008--is unchanged from February. If energy prices level off as currently anticipated, overall inflation should slow to a pace close to that of core inflation in coming quarters.

    Good luck long corn..
    i stand corrected. i obviously didn't pay attention to the july statement. thanks for straightening me out.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  14. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by CUBUCK View Post
    You and your hearsay.

    You think JPM wants to get shut out of another $20 billion dollar PE IPO? These deals will get done because no bank wants to see that steady flow advisory and underwriting fees from PE dry up.

    Lets just look back at this at the end of the year and see what happens
    not to stir the pot, per se, but round 1 went to the dangerous mathemetician and her hearsay:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jBg&refer=home

    not calling you out, CUBUCK, but SPIDERS Fin Index down 13% YTD and total correction DJIA is near 10% recapitulation. Fed Rate cut seems more and more imminent based on Fed Funds Futures probabilities rising dramatically everyday...>30% for 50bps.

  15. #165
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    DJIA at 12,861 right now.
    Not anywhere close to the only indicator out there, but...

    relevant to the original topic of the thread.
    Thrutchworthy Production Services

  16. #166
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    BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY BUY
    "It is not the result that counts! It is not the result but the spirit! Not what - but how. Not what has been attained - but at what price.
    - A. Solzhenitsyn

  17. #167
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    not to stir the pot, per se, but round 1 went to the dangerous mathemetician and her hearsay:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...jBg&refer=home

    not calling you out, CUBUCK, but SPIDERS Fin Index down 13% YTD and total correction DJIA is near 10% recapitulation. Fed Rate cut seems more and more imminent based on Fed Funds Futures probabilities rising dramatically everyday...>30% for 50bps.
    "hearsay"?!? Hearsay?!



  18. #168
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    OH SHIT!
    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL!

    Yes, I am mocking you market timing dumbasses
    "It is not the result that counts! It is not the result but the spirit! Not what - but how. Not what has been attained - but at what price.
    - A. Solzhenitsyn

  19. #169
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanDip4All View Post
    "hearsay"?!? Hearsay?!


    here, here, hearsay

  20. #170
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    Fed funds are trsding at 4.5%, T-bill rates drop 60bbp today to 4.06... from approx. 4.7% today

    I think it could get a lot worse before it gets better. Countrywide tried to float 30 day commerical paper today at 12% - 15% no takers... and for only $25mm (wtfever)

  21. #171
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    I'm bloodied but unbowed. I'll be scaling in new long term equities just like Buffet and Lampert. We're still up 2000 Dow points from last year so perspective is in order. I believe the the new down tick rule "excuse" has some validity. Give traders a chance to pile on and they will.

    After 9/11 I figured if the world was going to hell I might as well go with it and commited to long term equities.

    If the fed eased tomorrow it would not be good for the market. The market has priced in a cut in September and we may get one then.

  22. #172
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    If the fed eased tomorrow it would not be good for the market. The market has priced in a cut in September and we may get one then.
    Thats my thinking too. I will just rachet up the fear; It will just make more fear. If the fed does an emerecy meeting and cut 50 bbp we will get a bounce.

    I think it would only help the market out a few days. The banks are just not lending; its the craziest thing I've ever seen.

    This is a very different thing then past panics. The fed has to be very careful what it does.

    Alot of my friends that sit at debt desks are home staring at the ceiling... there's no liquidity.

  23. #173
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    on the pointy end, calling the line, swearing my fucking ass off
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    The only thing worse than the feeling that you are going to die is the realization that you probably won't.

  24. #174
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanDip4All View Post
    Alot of my friends that sit at debt desks are home staring at the ceiling... there's no liquidity.
    There will be.. Someone is making money on the short side and they'll squeeze every last penny out of the wrongsiders. Like Amaranth.. When it's over it will be over in hurry.

  25. #175
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    Quote Originally Posted by Free Range Lobster View Post
    I never liked Greenspan.. Always behind the curve.

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