Is the stock market going to tank?

[dan_pdx]

I'm thinking about pulling completely out of the stonk market and going to cash/MM for a while. Is that a foolish plan? Didn't Warren Buffet do that ^^ I think the time to do that was pre-trump ?

Buffett is about 25% cash now (actually, probably treasuries). My wife and I are about the same, but it's in laddered CDs. Not so much a well-thought-out strategy in our case as wanting a big emergency fund, we've always been a little too cash-heavy

[Bunion 2020]

Currently holding little in the way of stocks, ETFs or MFs.

Unfortunately I took that position right around now last year so I missed a lot of upside. I also missed a lot of volatility and it has performed well enough that I am up around 8% over last year. Given that I will close my business at the end of 2026 and fully retire, I am OK with that and while I am always wrong, I see headwinds.

[406]

Climberevan, when do you need the money and would cashing out require pay taxes on profit? Im over a decade from 401k withdrawals and dont need my brokerage account anytime soon (hopefully), so Im staying in the market despite thinking good chance will be at about this level in 2035. Im about 35% treasuries/CDs.

[XXX-er]

Obviously you guys are too sober to do well in the market

[climberevan]

Climberevan, when do you need the money and would cashing out require pay taxes on profit? Im over a decade from 401k withdrawals and dont need my brokerage account anytime soon (hopefully), so Im staying in the market despite thinking good chance will be at about this level in 2035. Im about 35% treasuries/CDs.

I don't need the money anytime in the foreseeable future. I might need to pay a little tax on the gainz, but I still have some business deductions I can use to offset much of it. I'm already about 70% MM so we're only talking about 30% in VOO.

This would just be a move to sit out what I expect to be another wild swing period after Cheeto forgets that the market doesn't like his zany ideas. I also see a longer-lasting correction coming when the market realizes that authoritarianism isn't good for economic growth....

[CascadeLuke]

I see your concerns and have only about fifteen percent at play on risky high reward plays. For one, they are contrary positions I believe in strongly and two it adds some excitement when you’re just conservatively trotting along getting mid fours.
What does everyone think about the US credit downgrade and the effects this wk and beyond?

[Bunion 2020]

Bessent doesn't give Moody's any credence...... Tomorrow will tell me much more.

[Stu Gotz]

Bessent stating that Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE not caring about the Moody's downgrade is a weird vibe.

[yeahman]

With U.S. energy production (which peaked under Biden) set to decline 10-20 percent this year, it appears Trump wants us back under the thumb of the Saudis.https://ir.diamondbackenergy.com/new...k-energy-inc-7

[Cono Este]

<p>

^^^Mad King is saying this is Biden&#39;s fault. Really not much to be positive about. In addition to the economic manipulation, US is more vulnerable than ever to terrorists, natural disaster, and/or pandemic.

</p>
<p>
Yes dummy, you were behind the curve, by a few months. News means shit in the mkt.&nbsp;</p>

[406]

I&#39;m already about 70% MM so we&#39;re only talking about 30% in VOO.

My magic 8ball says murky, so Im just staying with my typical allocation. It is cool seeing EU funds hitting 52wk highs. Wish I had cash to buy the April VOO dip or gold 8 months ago.
I agree VOO will likely remain volitile, but looks to me like good amount of the companies in VOO are kissing the ring and paying bribes, so might do fine. For example Apple making sure iphones not included in the China embargo. Small and mid size are going to have a hard time.
Im guessing dollar keeps tanking and treasury rates are going up. Also guessing inflation for things people actually need is going to go up, even if Fed thinks it not because rates for rental cars declined :eyeroll: If the gop tax bill passes and they up the debt limit going to be a major S&P sugar high.

[byates1]

Cleaned out an IRA w tax event to buy some land, then didn't buy land. So now have cake sitting in 4.5% stablecoin. Also bought BTC at 84 and yellow rocks.

Copy trading via dubapp. Up 15% in a week. "No risk no rari" is the portfolio title lol.

Would love to buy .5 BTC at 50ish but that ship has sailed probably.

So I'm heavy cash gold and BTC. Could be worse

[Danno]

<p>

I&#39;m thinking about pulling completely out of the stonk market and going to cash/MM for a while. Is that a foolish plan? It would lock in some solid gains and avoid what is sure to be more roller coaster coming in the next year or 2...

I did that during the first Trump term. Thing about it is, you have to accept that you cannot actually time the market and may very well end up losing money, and that the reason you are pulling out is for peace of mind and not because it is the correct investment strategy. I did lose money back then but I also slept better at night and have no regrets. This time around I am leaving my money in because the current and impending shitshow is just something I have learned to live with.</p>

[CarlMega]

<p>
^I did well sensing an opportunity during covid.&nbsp; Kept powder dry and went in.&nbsp; Should have done more.</p>
<p>
But I think it makes sense to always be investing.&nbsp; Keep a steady buy in, but vary between aggressive and selective.&nbsp; How much do I want to lock in or put at risk vs. taking a moderate safe return?&nbsp; It varies.</p>
<p>
Unless you have a plan &amp; objective tho, I don&#39;t see the long term results in cashing out completely and then ??</p>
<p>
So -&gt; steady buys regardless - long term minded &amp; all that yields/compounds.</p>
<p>
manuverable funds taking advantage of what the times present:&nbsp; equities?&nbsp; bonds &amp; treasuries?&nbsp; What&#39;s your risk / need profile?</p>
<p>
What I hate is actually this time around.&nbsp; There are no conventional boundaries because of King George and the cult.&nbsp; Stupid shit, self-defeating nonsense, landscape shifting disaster potential.</p>
<p>
I believe in the market and the power of the economy, even when it&#39;s acting irrational.&nbsp; Time.&nbsp; I don&#39;t have faith in a market governed by an irrational monarch.&nbsp; I don&#39;t have the timeline for that correction.</p>
<p>
Hoping for the best.&nbsp; You&#39;re long term health may be the best measure on how it works for you.</p>

[CascadeLuke]

Realizing I’m off on my investment participation. This is the problem with getting older and having accounts spread around. My comment of fifteen percent was tied to active RH and Schwab trading accounts. There’s another bucket tied into work four O one Ks and pension that I don’t manage. Those will essentially go untouched and DCA’d whether I like it or not. It kind of blends me better for any direction I suppose.
Still I see headwinds that apply to this Trump term vs last - which I’ll admit had me bearish back then. It’s good to hear other’s opinions who are rationally long.

[SkiLyft]

Surprised no one’s talking about UNH — seems like a clear buy to me… massive company with many profitable/compliant business lines.

My hot take is the market is spooked from broader issues and the pending lawsuit is driving down the price ++ murder of Chris…

Sure Medicare advantage has its issues and is under scrutiny but healthcare is fairly recession proof in my eyes, and MA is a small share of UNH as a whole. Look at their global products, pharmacy (Optum rx), commercial plans, etc safe to say they are a big ass company (#4 on fortune 500).

Who knows trigger pulled on some stock, planning to hold 3-5 years.. think it’s a good buy.



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[civilcoconut]

The Dow is up on the year. In a related note, im doing a calculation in my head of how much $$ i save if i sell everything, transfer all assets to a swiss/cayman bank account and then move to canada. Think that canada would actually extradite/cooperate with the IRS and american government over my tax evasion charges? Id be happy to pay full freight taxes up north, eh?

Glad to hear I am not the only one whos lizard brain is screaming to move my assests into non-dollar denominated assets overseas.

[jono]

Anybody shopping brokers lately? I'm looking for a good place to trade options cheaply in both IRA and taxable accounts and it seems like a good time to review what's out there before putting more accounts in with Schwab. Chuck charges $0.66/contract, has decent but not leading MM rates, licks boots and takes a day to sell MM funds.

So far I've found: Vanguard requires a phone call to exercise an option; SoFi might be about $0.04/contract but charges a $5 assignment fee; and Robinhood looks to be around $0.54/contract unless you buy their premium service.

Who else is worth considering?

[m2711c]

Fidelity?

[jono]

I've been a little slow to look at Fidelity just because I've heard weird stories about options restrictions there, but I probably should.

[dan_pdx]

I've been a little slow to look at Fidelity just because I've heard weird stories about options restrictions there, but I probably should.

I randomly have some money at Fidelity because a previous our 401ks there and I never moved it. I've been dicking around with options there, just small transactions. When I use the app, I occasionally get a message "this account is not approved for trading options", even though I did go through their approval process. If I close it and open it again, sometimes that message goes away and I can trade options. Kind of weird, other than that, no major complaints, but I've just barely dipped my toe into this

[skaredshtles]

I randomly have some money at Fidelity because a previous our 401ks there and I never moved it.

Have a look at the fees for your 401K - my wife had her company 401K there for a short while after getting laid off, and the fees for that particular plan were *RIDICULOUS* - I recommended she roll it immediately into a rollover IRA simply to avoid the usurous fees she was getting charged.

[dan_pdx]

Have a look at the fees for your 401K - my wife had her company 401K there for a short while after getting laid off, and the fees for that particular plan were *RIDICULOUS* - I recommended she roll it immediately into a rollover IRA simply to avoid the usurous fees she was getting charged.

Good tip, thank you! I'll check it out

[406]

The TACO trade jokes are funny.

[MultiVerse]

Yep