Is the stock market going to tank?

**406** · 04-30-2025, 12:10 PM

^^^Mad King is saying this is Biden's fault. Really not much to be positive about. In addition to the economic manipulation, US is more vulnerable than ever to terrorists, natural disaster, and/or pandemic.

**summit** · 05-06-2025, 09:54 AM

Originally Posted by neufox47

How much of the current s&p 500 market value is being propped up by the assumption of increasing inflation and that the biggest firms will benefit from increasing prices like they did from Covid? Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

I would love to know the answer to this question

**406** · 05-13-2025, 08:15 PM

So donny caves and drops the embargo on China for no concession, eyeroll. I'm confused why market is so hot when there are still 10% and other tariffs?

**skaredshtles** · 05-13-2025, 08:29 PM

Originally Posted by 406

So donny caves and drops the embargo on China for no concession, eyeroll. I'm confused why market is so hot when there are still 10% and other tariffs?

Because there hasn't been any measurable damage... yet.

**yeahman** · 05-14-2025, 07:13 AM

Met with my FA yesterday. He thinks a recession is unavoidable at this point. A lot of his clients own northern businesses being crushed by lack of Canadian tourists. He thinks it could be short, 6-12 months if Trump doesn't keep shitting where we eat. But that's a big if.

**The Nuclear Option** · 05-14-2025, 07:26 AM

Since Trump has capitulated and ONLY has 30% tariffs on chinese goods, the market mist go up, WAY up. There is no market driver stronger than the maybe removal of self induced damage!!! Market traders are in sum whackos. Irrational exuberance IS the market

**californiagrown** · 05-14-2025, 09:50 AM

Back in mid-late april i cashed out all of my underperforming stocks/gambles that were underperforming significantly over the past 6 months. I dumped a few grand more into my longterm flyer on LAC, and then dumped the rest of my cash reserves into some moneymarkets and bonds. Im about 20% cash/bonds right now and ive kind of decided to just sitout the market till at least Halloween (still making monthly deposits into this brokerage, just putting it into those moneymarket/bonds). Im glad i didnt pull anything significant out when the market tanked in early April, im almost back to early february levels... but i am just really not optomistic for the economy in general going forward, despite being pretty happy with the companies i do own currently. This is for my YOLO account. My robo-managed retirement etrade account is, and will remain on a set and forget strategy.

**liv2ski** · 05-14-2025, 10:53 AM

I sure hope my little girl is back to even again as being down $40K had her really pissed off.

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**CascadeLuke** · 05-14-2025, 11:03 AM

I hope you all accepted the current gift- that is UVIX. Unless of course you think Donna is capable of avoiding volatility and the economy is about to moon.

Took 65% of my realized gains from UVIX last month and doubled down on 5400 shares. Run it back, baby!

**MultiVerse** · 05-14-2025, 12:38 PM

S&P 500 looks fairly valued at current future earnings expectations. I think for "the economy is about to moon" bet to payoff three conditions have to hold:

1 - The US economy must remain recession-resistant
2 - Markets have veto power over Donna's bad policy
3 - AI will enable a labor productivity boom

**byates1** · 05-14-2025, 02:54 PM

dubapp. Why not.

**singlesline** · 05-14-2025, 07:57 PM

**Cono Este** · 05-15-2025, 11:46 AM

TSLA ripping!

Well, what a difference a month makes around here.

I say we tar feather the political clowns in here who fucked everyone up, posting nonsense, not putting their money where their mouths are.

**m2711c** · 05-15-2025, 12:50 PM

You’re gonna tar and feather yourself? Is that like a fascist form of BDSM?

**The Nuclear Option** · 05-15-2025, 05:29 PM

Whats the Buffet indicator at? 188% Who has a valuation metric that doesnt show the markets as overvalued?

**MultiVerse** · 05-16-2025, 08:15 AM

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Cono put his clown nose on. Trump revised his absurd tariff policy more than 50 times since inauguration day. Even with the site woes TGR was on it, making the correct call back in April, "every (bad) tariff theory is cooked. It's over." American government has become a laughingstock all over the world but our markets know Trump is all talk and bluster, that he'll always back down without getting anything substantive in return

**Hopeless Sinner** · 05-16-2025, 01:19 PM

Originally Posted by MultiVerse

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA. Cono put his clown nose on. Trump revised his absurd tariff policy more than 50 times since inauguration day. Even with the site woes TGR was on it, making the correct call back in April, "every (bad) tariff theory is cooked. It's over." American government has become a laughingstock all over the world but our markets know Trump is all talk and bluster, that he'll always back down without getting anything substantive in return

the art of the squeal

**californiagrown** · 05-16-2025, 01:19 PM

The Dow is up on the year. In a related note, im doing a calculation in my head of how much $$ i save if i sell everything, transfer all assets to a swiss/cayman bank account and then move to canada. Think that canada would actually extradite/cooperate with the IRS and american government over my tax evasion charges? Id be happy to pay full freight taxes up north, eh?

**skaredshtles** · 05-16-2025, 01:25 PM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

The Dow is up on the year. In a related note, im doing a calculation in my head of how much $$ i save if i sell everything, transfer all assets to a swiss/cayman bank account and then move to canada. Think that canada would actually extradite/cooperate with the IRS and american government over my tax evasion charges? Id be happy to pay full freight taxes up north, eh?

What are Swiss/Cayman banks paying these days on deposits?

**singlesline** · 05-16-2025, 03:46 PM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

The Dow is up on the year. In a related note, im doing a calculation in my head of how much $$ i save if i sell everything, transfer all assets to a swiss/cayman bank account and then move to canada. Think that canada would actually extradite/cooperate with the IRS and american government over my tax evasion charges? Id be happy to pay full freight taxes up north, eh?

The forum ate my post, but the point that I was trying to make was that even though markets have recovered back to where they were when Trump took office, the value of the dollar has dropped a lot against the other developed world currences.

USD to CAD isn't so bad (because canada's got their own shit and is tied to the US), but Euros are now like 10% more expensive in the span of a couple of months.

So you got your portfolio value back, but that portfolio will buy you a whole lot less cool stuff from the rest of the world (which means even LESS stuff when that cool euro stuff gets imported and tariffed)

**CascadeLuke** · 05-16-2025, 04:54 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

TSLA ripping!

Well, what a difference a month makes around here.

I say we tar feather the political clowns in here who fucked everyone up, posting nonsense, not putting their money where their mouths are.

Put your reader glasses on grandpa. I put money where my mouth is and posted about it - UVIX - prior to 3X’n on a 52 day trade - for a quarter mil, realized. Liberation day, baby!!
Just bought one hundred ten worth because for some reason the VIX has dropped way back down on the ‘concept of a deal’ with Chhiina. Maybe it won’t turn out as well this time, maybe it will. To me it’s house money.
Gehead and ride musk’s k-hole, mark.

Edit to add: i’m not really this much of an asshole, but I’ve had it with MAGA.

**climberevan** · 05-17-2025, 09:11 AM

I'm thinking about pulling completely out of the stonk market and going to cash/MM for a while. Is that a foolish plan? It would lock in some solid gains and avoid what is sure to be more roller coaster coming in the next year or 2...

**XXX-er** · 05-17-2025, 09:52 AM

I'm thinking about pulling completely out of the stonk market and going to cash/MM for a while. Is that a foolish plan? Didn't Warren Buffet do that ^^ I think the time to do that was pre-trump ?

**liv2ski** · 05-17-2025, 10:16 AM

Originally Posted by XXX-er

I'm thinking about pulling completely out of the stonk market and going to cash/MM for a while. Is that a foolish plan? Didn't Warren Buffet do that ^^ I think the time to do that was pre-trump ?

Normally what I do is completely wrong and I'm out of the market. So with that said you're probably better off staying invested.

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**XXX-er** · 05-17-2025, 10:36 AM

that was climbereven I quoted ^^ I am not in the stock market cuz I am retired and so they just send me some checks every month

20 yaars ago I was done at IBM so I was high or drunk a lot when I sold my house at the peak to move here to the mtns to ski chase a woman, paddle, bike.

I missed an RE crash by a month then I forgot/ didnot know where to reinvest the money from that RE so I was in cash when the stock market crashed

so i looked like a fucking genius but it was all rather arbitrary I donot recommend everyone get wasted as an investment strategy but it worked for me