Is the stock market going to tank?

[406]

My guess is US debt will not be a major problem until it is, and then it will be a crisis(real one). As long as there is good demand for treasuries, should kick the can down the road. But sure would be nice to have that money to spend on something useful. Pretty crazy spending more on interest payments than national defense now:

21 % Social Security
14 % Medicare
13 % Net Interest
13 % Health
13 % National Defense

[MultiVerse]

Put another way, U.S. debt will not be a major problem (higher interest rates are just one of the ways debt still causes drag) as long as the world's largest provider of liquid assets is perceived as reliable and relatively safe.

Americans benefit from global dollar dominance. If global real demand for U.S. government securities were to fall for any number of reasons then, absent deficit reduction, we'd see a switch away from the current monetary dominate regime to a low growth fiscal dominate regime like Japan.

[m2711c]

[406]

Seems everyone buying DJT, because he did a rally at Madison Square Garden? Crazy times.

[LeeLau]

Seems everyone buying DJT, because he did a rally at Madison Square Garden? Crazy times.

It's because it's likely he will win the election

[406]

It's because it's likely he will win the election

Yeah, seems the market is pricing in a Trump win.

People have guesses on what will happen to S&P in Nov? My thoughts:
Harris strong win: slight drop
Harris close win and maga violence: big drop
To close to call or court bs lasting longer than few days: should have bought more bullets
Trump close win: not much change
Trump big win: rally like there is no tomorrow

[JimmyCarter]

One would think him winning would be terrible for DJT stock, assuming of course the emoluments clause survives his first week.i bet he can’t wait to dump all that stock.

[Hopeless Sinner]

Trump win will produce a rally but by Inauguration Day it’ll be under pressure after reality sets in.

I’m slightly high on my stock allocation, might trim that back in the next few days.

Harris win will enable the current trend to continue.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[skaredshtles]

One would think him winning would be terrible for DJT stock, assuming of course the emoluments clause survives his first week.i bet he can’t wait to dump all that stock.

Win or lose, there's no hope for DJT stock. At least in the mid- to long-term.

[LeeLau]

Win or lose, there's no hope for DJT stock. At least in the mid- to long-term.

Maybe you're right. Maybe Jimmy is right. My hedge on my short (long calls) worked till 30. Stopped out, locked wounds and moving on

[NBABUCKS1]

djt has turned into a 'memecoin'

[californiagrown]

Yeah, seems the market is pricing in a Trump win.

People have guesses on what will happen to S&P in Nov? My thoughts:
Harris strong win: slight drop
Harris close win and maga violence: big drop
To close to call or court bs lasting longer than few days: should have bought more bullets
Trump close win: not much change
Trump big win: rally like there is no tomorrow

Eh, i think any trump win and the market gets a boost, if only temporary. I just fired off pretty much all remaining dry powder in my brokerage accounts over the past week. Bought some LAC which has done nicely, dumped more into SPY and BRK, and just bought a chunk of F thinking that it should rise on hopes that Trumps chineese tarrifs fuck over BYB imports and ford has seemed depressed recently.

I figure why not spend it all now... if shit hits the fan and the market tanks, ill be more worried about packing the 4runner up to make a run for the border than how my brokerage accounts are doing. I really should just buy some bitcoin, but i cannot be bothered to figure that whole thing out right now. Maybe i should go exchange a few grand in freedom dollars for loonies and toonies now? just in case.

[heckacali]

Guns n ammo?

Rope for the lynchings?

[gravitylover]

I checked, I think we have enough ammo for the really scary long guns but probably need a few more boxes of shotgun shells. Here's a fukt up thought, do you think the handgun collection is worth more today or after the election? That's actually a legit and timely financial potential inquiry as we need to liquidate some stuff to help cover the old man's care facility.

[JimmyCarter]

and just bought a chunk of F thinking that it should rise on hopes that Trumps chineese tarrifs fuck over BYB imports and ford has seemed depressed recently.

I.

A day early unfortunately

[Mazderati]

A day early and a dollar short.

[dan_pdx]

I checked, I think we have enough ammo for the really scary long guns but probably need a few more boxes of shotgun shells. Here's a fukt up thought, do you think the handgun collection is worth more today or after the election? That's actually a legit and timely financial potential inquiry as we need to liquidate some stuff to help cover the old man's care facility.

I think it depends who wins. If Harris wins, worth more after the election. If Trump wins, worth more before the election. So... Not to get this moved into polyass, but who do you think is going to win?

[californiagrown]

A day early unfortunately

goddamnit! I need to stop throwing money at american heritage brands like Boeing and Ford. Stinking it up for me. When am i going to learn?

[skaredshtles]

goddamnit! I need to stop throwing money at american heritage brands like Boeing and Ford. Stinking it up for me. When am i going to learn?

Ya rolls the dice and takes your chances...

[m2711c]

I checked, I think we have enough ammo for the really scary long guns but probably need a few more boxes of shotgun shells. Here's a fukt up thought, do you think the handgun collection is worth more today or after the election? That's actually a legit and timely financial potential inquiry as we need to liquidate some stuff to help cover the old man's care facility.

timing the market never works. you need the fuckin’ money now and you don’t need the guns? sell the fuckin’ guns now and get the fuckin’ money now….



fact

[skaredshtles]

timing the market never works.

[goldenboy]

I don't think timing the stock market works, but I actually think you could time the gun market. Sadly, you just have to wait for the next big school shooting.

[4matic]

Here’s what’s wrong with Ford. Boeing too really:

“In 2023, Ford accrued $4.74 billion in warranty accruals, which was an 18% increase from 2022.”

[Hopeless Sinner]

I don't think timing the stock market works, but I actually think you could time the gun market. Sadly, you just have to wait for the next big school shooting.

Pretty sure the days of high demand for guns prior to elections is done and over with. The right played the gun control tune for 30 years and the target audience either has enough weapons or they figured out it was a myth propagated by the NRA and others. I'm betting on the former.

[4matic]

“Since this question was first asked in 1987, the Conference Board said consumers have the highest % of those that expect higher stock prices. Let's hope this is not a contrarian indicator.”