Is the stock market going to tank?

[Cono Este]

Sold some tech stocks I bought a few yrs ago. Was up 2-3x in just a few yrs. Kept half the positions in amzn, google, Tesla, etc. ditched all the garbage on my sheets too.

[grabtindy]

Been DCA'ing out of TSLA since the Twitter acquisition, today I liquidated the last of my Elon managed holdings. I thought about keeping some in the portfolio on the longshot that he turns things around, but with the looming Twitter interest payments coming next month and how likely it is Elon will have to sell some Tesla ownership to cover I'm feeling good.

[Cono Este]

Been DCA'ing out of TSLA since the Twitter acquisition, today I liquidated the last of my Elon managed holdings. I thought about keeping some in the portfolio on the longshot that he turns things around, but with the looming Twitter interest payments coming next month and how likely it is Elon will have to sell some Tesla ownership to cover I'm feeling good.

I thought about it, but I promised myself I would not act like a stupid trader my entire life.

New beginnings. .

[byates1]

worth a listen

[Brock Landers]

Anyone here know B Riley? Complex little business. Took a hammering.

Lots of expenses - almost 180Mn in interest to pay per year. Owns a mish-mash of business from IB, wealth management, quasi-VC and even Tannus hard goods

Financial companies that don't have investor confidence or regulator confidence tend not to do to well. Thinking of starting a short on a dead cat.

Liquid enough options to hedge with calls

Or an owner that will fuck shit up. Yeesh.

[LeeLau]

Or an owner that will fuck shit up. Yeesh.

I'm rather enjoying this one. Short and have long calls as protection. The somewhat dubious Brant Riley Subject--to-financing go private offer seems to have put a ceiling on the trade & validated the short seller trades. My concern is that it's now a crowded short. Alarming borrow rate

Am also short puts and calls to harvest volatility while it waits.

[Cono Este]

For what it’s worth, unless it’s going hard to borrow, and they are reducing the short stock rebate, short interest % is an over hyped indicator. It’s all derivatives, warrants, otc positions we have no clue to.

[LeeLau]

For what it’s worth, unless it’s going hard to borrow, and they are reducing the short stock rebate, short interest % is an over hyped indicator. It’s all derivatives, warrants, otc positions we have no clue to.

Very true. There are lots of market makers carrying inventory, unregistered pools. Lots of legitimate reasons to short the stock without being negative.

Quite a few prefs & bondholders also with a need to hedge. GME was educational in that regard

[rod9301]

Instead of shorting, a synthetic short works well, sell calls, but puts

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[rod9301]

I meant BUY puts

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[Kevo]

Random question- but what is up with brokerages taking days to update positions? I seem to remember that my Fidelity 401K would usually update by like 7PM MT showing the daily movements of the account but now it is taking days- it currently shows me values as of the 15th.

[Cono Este]

Very true. There are lots of market makers carrying inventory, unregistered pools. Lots of legitimate reasons to short the stock without being negative.

Quite a few prefs & bondholders also with a need to hedge. GME was educational in that regard

I used to,read the tape when I was bored, watch specialists take stocks down, wait for big prints then fire off orders on DOT, they’d always fuck me, but since we went multiply listed, data means shit to me. It’s all incomplete.

Never mind otc shit.

If you play the short interest gig, get a list of,reduced rebates first. When there is a buy in, it’s at the close, stock will run up. Next morning everyone is remshorting for the day to get neutral.

Played that game in my best ever issue. Put call parity falls out of whack cause no one can short the stock and stay short. We’d charge people, a dollar a month on a front month reversal. Did it for 18 months once and was only bought in once on 50k after an ex. Re shorted before open, and it tanked.

[skaredshtles]

Random question- but what is up with brokerages taking days to update positions? I seem to remember that my Fidelity 401K would usually update by like 7PM MT showing the daily movements of the account but now it is taking days- it currently shows me values as of the 15th.

Mine was updated by about 17:00EDT today...

[Kevo]

Mine was updated by about 17:00EDT today...

Mine updated today from the 15th to the 16th.

So weird.

[4matic]

Boomers supporting economy: Bill Gross:

Hard to measure but I suspect upper middle class and wealthy boomers are funding millennials and younger generational spending by transferring assets/cash and paying bills, and in the process pumping retail sales and the economy. In essence they are liquidating balance sheets to pay for spending. This is likely to continue as long as stocks/housing prices stay elevated. OK, save the summer

[LeeLau]

DJT unlock on Sept 19th depending on share price.

IB did have borrows. Used them on most recent pump. Caution that the lockup is well publicized so there could easily be ambushes laid out

[skaredshtles]

Goddammit - NakedShorts owes me a refund.

I *DEMAND* to see NakedShorts' manager.

[J. Barron DeJong]

WOOT!

About damn time!

[4matic]

2/10 curve volatile. Last peak in 2y was 2.81 in 2018.

[4matic]

DJT unlock on Sept 19th depending on share price.

IB did have borrows. Used them on most recent pump. Caution that the lockup is well publicized so there could easily be ambushes laid out

There were zero borrows not long ago. More after the lockup?

Inflation will collapse when owner equivalent rent turns lower. And it will.

[dschane]

When will US debt matter again? Never, as long as there's demand for U.S. treasury bills? We blew past 90% of GDP and, according to WSJ article, may get to 122% of GDP in 10 years. Or maybe debt never mattered, other than as a political talking point.

[J. Barron DeJong]

When will US debt matter again? Never, as long as there's demand for U.S. treasury bills? We blew past 90% of GDP and, according to WSJ article, may get to 122% of GDP in 10 years. Or maybe debt never mattered, other than as a political talking point.

I think debt matters if interest rates end up settling above 3-4% to keep inflation at the 2% target.

Not that the debt will cause a catastrophe - see Japan for what sort of debt can be carried without causing some sort of death spiral - but that reducing debt in that scenario will allow for lower rates and stronger economic growth.

(Saying 3-4% as the desired rate so the Fed has room to cut to head off a recession.)

ETA: the Fed currently foresees a long run rate of 2.9%

[MultiVerse]

Japan engages in financial repression to sustain its debt burden. That's not my opinion, it's an economic definition. Financial repression wrecks the dynamic performance of private industry. Financial repression means investors earn returns lower than the rate of inflation. Debt not causing a "death spiral" is a low bar in a thread ostensibly about people earning positive returns on their investments, rather than zero or negative returns for decades as is the case in Japan.

[LeeLau]

There were zero borrows not long ago. More after the lockup?

Inflation will collapse when owner equivalent rent turns lower. And it will.

Perhaps more after lockup especially since so many are unlocked. Even if the Donald doesn't sell he'll surely hedge or lend out shares for shorting with that borrow rate.

[4matic]

Right. “He” might not sell but his advisors and family will so he can deny it. On to the crypto grift.