Is the stock market going to tank?

[schuss]

A lot of countries are buying gold instead of treasuries now

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

I mean, if your primary trading partner is China or Russia, not the worst idea.

[muted reborn]

https://archive.ph/

You're welcome.

Nice, thank ya!

[byates1]

https://youtu.be/kdThScj7VPs?si=yfQDaQfrliIhbn0-

Desktop embed currently wack

This is well worth a listen. Top citi trader in the world shares his story

[skaredshtles]

Where the hell is NakedShorts? He's got some explaining to do.

[Cono Este]

I’m 10% cash now. Sold 1/2 Tesla a few months back, sold some coin, huge winners. and Disney i rode down for even. So it. can go higher now. Still long VIX for a small loss, but adding more as my hedge. Should get cheaper this summer, I like January vol. who doesn’t?

[Toadman]

DOW hits 40k.

[Cono Este]

I’ve never seen an inflationary cycle in my adult life. But my first specialist, in my first pit, always told me his house, his stocks etc were his hedge. Guess he’s right.

Not an economist, but revenues are up, probably profits, obviously, just a question if people can keep paying for all this shit, if debt eventually snuffs it out.

Don’t know, in general, this all uncharted waters.

[J. Barron DeJong]

People’s debt seems pretty low right now?

[MakersTeleMark]

I believe 1/5 Americans are maxed out on their CC's. That is going to pop soon.

[fastfred]

I believe 1/5 Americans are maxed out on their CC's. That is going to pop soon.

not just that but I was in denver picking up stuff and the girls behind the counter were discussing what buy now pay later programs they thought were the best

you know they backwards lay away
you used to pay then get the product now you get the product and maybe pay for it?

[skaredshtles]

DOW hits 40k.

NakedShorts is going to have some 'splainin' to do if he ever comes back in here.

[Kevo]

NakedShorts is going to have some 'splainin' to do if he ever comes back in here.

Dude missed one of the biggest rallies ever.

[J. Barron DeJong]

I believe 1/5 Americans are maxed out on their CC's. That is going to pop soon.

Credit card debt isn’t unusually high either:



(The ‘real’ number is the important one, unless you’re going to consider nominal wage growth as well.)

https://www.ft.com/content/34c57911-...d-bef830608a5a

[Cono Este]

I was taught, new high? Add 15%, at least in OTC issues. Indexes, obviously, less volatile. Maybe 5. I don’t predict shit, summer is almost here. Election etc. lots going on though. I am balls long in retirement Acct’s. But I don’t expect much more the next couple yrs. Monthly contribution going to cash, 5% or so, and I am hoping, those of us over 50, get a chance to lock in some 7-8% long term treasuries, in a qualified acct. and have a worry free retirement that’s my hope/plan.


Disclaimer, I’m just dumb trader, and am rarely right past 90:days.

[Cono Este]

People’s debt seems pretty low right now?

Somethings changed. In general, when you look at that graph, it’s risk off. Last I checked, a lot of Frank Dodd was not funded. I know because the CFTC recruited me 10 yrs ago, but never got the cash. But either way, you need risk on to crash the mkt. that forced selling/margin selling is what really juices the vol. fuck man, Dow 8000 Was insane. 100 pt moves in the SPU before you could hit enter.

Something’s changed, because other than covid panic, great buy, we’ve just not seen it since. Must be fucking hell in my old business u less your a front spreader, i.e. short everything. I’d have gotten crushed, cause I always owned the tails, paid off huge in 2001. That was a great ski season. Oh the stories.

[bfree]

I was taught, new high? Add 15%, at least in OTC issues. Indexes, obviously, less volatile. Maybe 5. I don’t predict shit, summer is almost here. Election etc. lots going on though. I am balls long in retirement Acct’s. But I don’t expect much more the next couple yrs. Monthly contribution going to cash, 5% or so, and I am hoping, those of us over 50, get a chance to lock in some 7-8% long term treasuries, in a qualified acct. and have a worry free retirement that’s my hope/plan.


Disclaimer, I’m just dumb trader, and am rarely right past 90:days.

The problem is the rest of your portfolio would get have gotten slaughtered by the time LTT went to 7-8%.

IMO load up on ~2% TIPS if you're approaching retirement.

[4matic]

Really enjoyed this interview with Victor Shvets and his perspective on the Fed, China and other stuff.

https://youtu.be/9rwgyw0iM0Y?si=Y2makF7gnqqk05R8

[Cono Este]

The problem is the rest of your portfolio would get have gotten slaughtered by the time LTT went to 7-8%.

IMO load up on ~2% TIPS if you're approaching retirement.

I’d agree, in the short term, money moves back and forth, flight to quality etc. but long term, there are much bigger forces at play. I don’t predict, but both could tank, and have tanked before, shit gold sold off with everything in 08. Blew up the balanced model.

I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation in treasuries yet, maybe, the bottom was put in last Oct, but if I have anything to offer this place, as a former liquidity provider, I need obvious signs of capitulation first. Forced selling, before I hang my balls out. It’s always worth waiting for. Better odds you’re in The black right away and don’t look back. I’m not talking 401k though.

[Brock Landers]

The problem is the rest of your portfolio would get have gotten slaughtered by the time LTT went to 7-8%.

IMO load up on ~2% TIPS if you're approaching retirement.

Tips are fucking useless

[4matic]

Persistent light volume is a conundrum. Probably bullish for another push higher

[dschane]

That last chart from JBDeJ seems most relevant, to me. It seems to show that credit card debt is well above the mean but not close to 20-year high. And I think the other missing variable is what effect, if any, does BNPL "debt" have? My understanding is that the amounts owed are not captured by the credit card debt information? And maybe those amounts are only one small blip in the picture.

[Cono Este]

Persistent light volume is a conundrum. Probably bullish for another push higher

Big fat risk tails aside, I agree, specially going into summer.

Id be buying January vol by the bushel as it went down. Maybe spread it off with august.

[MultiVerse]

Heh, doing the opposite of what popular financial influences recommend, can return 1.2% a month:

"To explain the popularity of anti/unskilled finfluencers, we check what strategies the different finfluencer groups pursue, what belief biases their advice induces, and why competition does not drive out anti/unskilled finfluencers. Skill correlates with observable tweeting patterns, suggesting that social media platform users have a preference for anti/unskilled finfluencers. Following the advice by antiskilled finfluencers creates overly optimistic beliefs most times, overly pessimistic beliefs some times, and persistent swings in followers’ belief bias. An investment strategy contrarian to antiskilled finfluencers’ recommendations yields 1.2% monthly out-of-sample performance. These results provide novel evidence on how investors seek financial advice on social media and what role finfluencers play in excessive trading and inefficient prices in financial markets."

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=4428232

[Kevo]

Really enjoyed this interview with Victor Shvets and his perspective on the Fed, China and other stuff.

https://youtu.be/9rwgyw0iM0Y?si=Y2makF7gnqqk05R8

Thanks. I enjoyed the podcast.

On the US side of the episode-
-There is an overabundance of money in the system, which means that traditional valuations are still out of the window.
-The overabundance of money makes it so that inflation is hard to predict.
-Fed put dates back to Greenspan and is still in place
-Supply of credit can expand even if interest rates are rising

[4matic]

Thanks. I enjoyed the podcast.

On the US side of the episode-
-There is an overabundance of money in the system, which means that traditional valuations are still out of the window.
-The overabundance of money makes it so that inflation is hard to predict.
-Fed put dates back to Greenspan and is still in place
-Supply of credit can expand even if interest rates are rising

Thanks.

His perspective on gen z being more like the silent generation and the greatest generation in that they want a community based government was also interesting.