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  1. #18301
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Nhampshire
    Posts
    7,798
    Quote Originally Posted by rod9301 View Post
    A lot of countries are buying gold instead of treasuries now

    Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk
    I mean, if your primary trading partner is China or Russia, not the worst idea.

  2. #18302
    Join Date
    Apr 2021
    Posts
    2,997
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    https://archive.ph/

    You're welcome.

    Nice, thank ya!

  3. #18303
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Posts
    7,983
    https://youtu.be/kdThScj7VPs?si=yfQDaQfrliIhbn0-

    Desktop embed currently wack

    This is well worth a listen. Top citi trader in the world shares his story

  4. #18304
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    14,009
    Where the hell is NakedShorts? He's got some explaining to do.

  5. #18305
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,381
    I’m 10% cash now. Sold 1/2 Tesla a few months back, sold some coin, huge winners. and Disney i rode down for even. So it. can go higher now. Still long VIX for a small loss, but adding more as my hedge. Should get cheaper this summer, I like January vol. who doesn’t?

  6. #18306
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    8,333
    DOW hits 40k.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  7. #18307
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,381
    I’ve never seen an inflationary cycle in my adult life. But my first specialist, in my first pit, always told me his house, his stocks etc were his hedge. Guess he’s right.

    Not an economist, but revenues are up, probably profits, obviously, just a question if people can keep paying for all this shit, if debt eventually snuffs it out.

    Don’t know, in general, this all uncharted waters.

  8. #18308
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    5,826
    People’s debt seems pretty low right now?

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  9. #18309
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Posts
    19,424
    I believe 1/5 Americans are maxed out on their CC's. That is going to pop soon.
    Is it radix panax notoginseng? - splat
    This is like hanging yourself but the rope breaks. - DTM
    Dude Listen to mtm. He's a marriage counselor at burning man. - subtle plague

  10. #18310
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    your vacation
    Posts
    4,778
    Quote Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark View Post
    I believe 1/5 Americans are maxed out on their CC's. That is going to pop soon.
    not just that but I was in denver picking up stuff and the girls behind the counter were discussing what buy now pay later programs they thought were the best

    you know they backwards lay away
    you used to pay then get the product now you get the product and maybe pay for it?

  11. #18311
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    14,009
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    DOW hits 40k.
    NakedShorts is going to have some 'splainin' to do if he ever comes back in here.

  12. #18312
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
    Posts
    3,777
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    NakedShorts is going to have some 'splainin' to do if he ever comes back in here.
    Dude missed one of the biggest rallies ever.

  13. #18313
    Join Date
    Jun 2020
    Posts
    5,826
    Quote Originally Posted by MakersTeleMark View Post
    I believe 1/5 Americans are maxed out on their CC's. That is going to pop soon.
    Credit card debt isn’t unusually high either:

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    (The ‘real’ number is the important one, unless you’re going to consider nominal wage growth as well.)

    https://www.ft.com/content/34c57911-...d-bef830608a5a

  14. #18314
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,381
    I was taught, new high? Add 15%, at least in OTC issues. Indexes, obviously, less volatile. Maybe 5. I don’t predict shit, summer is almost here. Election etc. lots going on though. I am balls long in retirement Acct’s. But I don’t expect much more the next couple yrs. Monthly contribution going to cash, 5% or so, and I am hoping, those of us over 50, get a chance to lock in some 7-8% long term treasuries, in a qualified acct. and have a worry free retirement that’s my hope/plan.


    Disclaimer, I’m just dumb trader, and am rarely right past 90:days.

  15. #18315
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,381
    Quote Originally Posted by J. Barron DeJong View Post
    People’s debt seems pretty low right now?

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    Somethings changed. In general, when you look at that graph, it’s risk off. Last I checked, a lot of Frank Dodd was not funded. I know because the CFTC recruited me 10 yrs ago, but never got the cash. But either way, you need risk on to crash the mkt. that forced selling/margin selling is what really juices the vol. fuck man, Dow 8000 Was insane. 100 pt moves in the SPU before you could hit enter.

    Something’s changed, because other than covid panic, great buy, we’ve just not seen it since. Must be fucking hell in my old business u less your a front spreader, i.e. short everything. I’d have gotten crushed, cause I always owned the tails, paid off huge in 2001. That was a great ski season. Oh the stories.

  16. #18316
    Join Date
    Jan 2007
    Location
    SnoqWA
    Posts
    2,627
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    I was taught, new high? Add 15%, at least in OTC issues. Indexes, obviously, less volatile. Maybe 5. I don’t predict shit, summer is almost here. Election etc. lots going on though. I am balls long in retirement Acct’s. But I don’t expect much more the next couple yrs. Monthly contribution going to cash, 5% or so, and I am hoping, those of us over 50, get a chance to lock in some 7-8% long term treasuries, in a qualified acct. and have a worry free retirement that’s my hope/plan.


    Disclaimer, I’m just dumb trader, and am rarely right past 90:days.
    The problem is the rest of your portfolio would get have gotten slaughtered by the time LTT went to 7-8%.

    IMO load up on ~2% TIPS if you're approaching retirement.

  17. #18317
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,858
    Really enjoyed this interview with Victor Shvets and his perspective on the Fed, China and other stuff.

    https://youtu.be/9rwgyw0iM0Y?si=Y2makF7gnqqk05R8

  18. #18318
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,381
    Quote Originally Posted by bfree View Post
    The problem is the rest of your portfolio would get have gotten slaughtered by the time LTT went to 7-8%.

    IMO load up on ~2% TIPS if you're approaching retirement.
    I’d agree, in the short term, money moves back and forth, flight to quality etc. but long term, there are much bigger forces at play. I don’t predict, but both could tank, and have tanked before, shit gold sold off with everything in 08. Blew up the balanced model.

    I haven’t seen any kind of capitulation in treasuries yet, maybe, the bottom was put in last Oct, but if I have anything to offer this place, as a former liquidity provider, I need obvious signs of capitulation first. Forced selling, before I hang my balls out. It’s always worth waiting for. Better odds you’re in The black right away and don’t look back. I’m not talking 401k though.
    Last edited by Cono Este; 05-17-2024 at 03:57 AM.

  19. #18319
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    7,022
    Quote Originally Posted by bfree View Post
    The problem is the rest of your portfolio would get have gotten slaughtered by the time LTT went to 7-8%.

    IMO load up on ~2% TIPS if you're approaching retirement.
    Tips are fucking useless
    Decisions Decisions

  20. #18320
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,858
    Persistent light volume is a conundrum. Probably bullish for another push higher

  21. #18321
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Juneau
    Posts
    1,109
    That last chart from JBDeJ seems most relevant, to me. It seems to show that credit card debt is well above the mean but not close to 20-year high. And I think the other missing variable is what effect, if any, does BNPL "debt" have? My understanding is that the amounts owed are not captured by the credit card debt information? And maybe those amounts are only one small blip in the picture.

  22. #18322
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,381
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Persistent light volume is a conundrum. Probably bullish for another push higher
    Big fat risk tails aside, I agree, specially going into summer.

    Id be buying January vol by the bushel as it went down. Maybe spread it off with august.

  23. #18323
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Location
    Edge of the Great Basin
    Posts
    5,780
    Heh, doing the opposite of what popular financial influences recommend, can return 1.2% a month:

    "To explain the popularity of anti/unskilled finfluencers, we check what strategies the different finfluencer groups pursue, what belief biases their advice induces, and why competition does not drive out anti/unskilled finfluencers. Skill correlates with observable tweeting patterns, suggesting that social media platform users have a preference for anti/unskilled finfluencers. Following the advice by antiskilled finfluencers creates overly optimistic beliefs most times, overly pessimistic beliefs some times, and persistent swings in followers’ belief bias. An investment strategy contrarian to antiskilled finfluencers’ recommendations yields 1.2% monthly out-of-sample performance. These results provide novel evidence on how investors seek financial advice on social media and what role finfluencers play in excessive trading and inefficient prices in financial markets."

    https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=4428232

  24. #18324
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
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    3,777
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Really enjoyed this interview with Victor Shvets and his perspective on the Fed, China and other stuff.

    https://youtu.be/9rwgyw0iM0Y?si=Y2makF7gnqqk05R8
    Thanks. I enjoyed the podcast.

    On the US side of the episode-
    -There is an overabundance of money in the system, which means that traditional valuations are still out of the window.
    -The overabundance of money makes it so that inflation is hard to predict.
    -Fed put dates back to Greenspan and is still in place
    -Supply of credit can expand even if interest rates are rising

  25. #18325
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,858
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Thanks. I enjoyed the podcast.

    On the US side of the episode-
    -There is an overabundance of money in the system, which means that traditional valuations are still out of the window.
    -The overabundance of money makes it so that inflation is hard to predict.
    -Fed put dates back to Greenspan and is still in place
    -Supply of credit can expand even if interest rates are rising
    Thanks.

    His perspective on gen z being more like the silent generation and the greatest generation in that they want a community based government was also interesting.

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