Is the stock market going to tank?

[Kevo]

Dividend yielding US entities with lots of cash + parking cash in 5.5% insured savings accounts imo still seems a fairly safe bet. As a Canadian, for FX reasons the buy and holds are then effectively neutral

Interesting. I'm roughly 70% equity indices, 25% money market and 5% BTC at the moment. I'm prepping for stagflation with my small BTC and I'm moving some cash equivalents to an RE investment.

[yeahman]

Did a quick search on Schwab robo. There are premium services at $300 a year and their portfolios do keep a high cash reserve relative to others. I like that part especially if you don’t need it to generate income because it will automatically balance back into other portions on weakness

Yeah I've looked into that, need to look deeper. All my accounts are with Schwab and their customer service is excellent. Always easy to get somebody on the phone. Great website and app. I'm a little uncertain about the cash reserve part though. I'd rather have it in money market or high yield savings. Seems like a way for Schwab to make $$ off their "free" robo service. But definitely worth a little more exploration and a phone call.

Flat fee is entirely the way to go. Don't pay an assets under management fee if you don't have to, especially if the portfolio value is over a million.

My parent's used Vanguard for awhile and their service was terrible.

I set my parent's up with this group who I found through this article- https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/ho...ncial-advisor/

My parents are really happy with them.

They get unlimited access to a fiduciary CFA/CFP/RICP and who has them in very low cost index funds and optimizes their situation for tax strategy. They have regularly quarterly check in meetings with my parents and monthly disbursement checks sent to them for a flat fee per year. They would pay way more in AUM fees.

There are also some advisors on the White Coat Investor page that I linked to above that are willing to charge a one time fee for setting things up for you.

You could also do it yourself... www.bogleheads.org

Thanks, Clark looks like an interesting option. I assume they take control of your assets which is something I would like to avoid but never say never. Worth a phone meeting for sure.

Danno's girlfriend pointed me in the direction of a network where you can search for advisors using various filters. Found a CFP who charges a flat hourly or project rate. Never takes control of your assets, and I can end the relationship at any time. "Essentially you are renting my brain," is how he puts it. His brain is not cheap but I'd be suspicious if it were. Zoom meeting with him tomorrow to see what he has to say. Initial impression is good and he could be exactly what I'm looking for.

[4matic]

The Schwab cash account in robo pays 4.6%.

[Bunion 2020]

FYI there is a Schwab office in Bozeman. Not sure if there is one in Helena.

[uglymoney]

Quick Google says Vanguard Investor advisor is .30 percent and minimum 500k.

Current money market rate is 5.27 in my unmanaged V account.

Different topic, I don't find the Vanguard web or app interface to be all that bad and I haven't experienced any issues. I think in some ways I prefer the Vanguard app to the Schwab app. Quicker to check in and see everything on one screen, satisfy my OCD and move on. Definitely less function, but that doesn't matter to me.

I think after all the years of super low yields it is almost hard to not keep a nice chunk of money in a money market especially in tax sheltered accounts. Those monthly dividends are a nice soft pillow amongst the turnoil. I am not at all sure this means it is actually prudent, but psychology matters, and I like sleep.

Rare success story for me since I am all about boring stocks which never give me much to talk or humble brag about. Trane TT...I bought some at various times over the last couple years. Really nice stock price rise and also paying a small dividend.

[LeeLau]

Interesting. I'm roughly 70% equity indices, 25% money market and 5% BTC at the moment. I'm prepping for stagflation with my small BTC and I'm moving some cash equivalents to an RE investment.

It's entirely personal risk dependent. I'm 70% yield + covered calls (self-selected). 10% crypto (was 2% but it's in a tax- sheltered registered Canadian ETF so there's incentive to let it ride), approx 20% cash equivalents (5.5% savings accounts insured deposits dry powder).

Equity indices are imo a solid bet.

[summit]

Interesting. I'm roughly 70% equity indices, 25% money market and 5% BTC at the moment. I'm prepping for stagflation with my small BTC and I'm moving some cash equivalents to an RE investment.

Stagflation???

We are at historical just-below-average fed funds rate with inflation moderately above target and historically low unemployment.

I don't get this concern.

Stagflation had average double the current interest, triple the current inflation, and over twice current unemployment. Why do you think that is where we are headed?

I'm more concerned with trying to hedge for a potential hot conflict with China or Iran, though unsure how to do so other than buying defense stocks.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Stagflation???

We are at historical just-below-average fed funds rate with inflation moderately above target and historically low unemployment.

I don't get this concern.

Stagflation had average double the current interest, triple the current inflation, and over twice current unemployment. Why do you think that is where we are headed?

I'm more concerned with trying to hedge for a potential hot conflict with China or Iran, though unsure how to do so other than buying defense stocks.

^^^ yep.

Another data point: TIPS vs regular treasuries allow for calculating the market’s prediction of inflation. Currently that market is betting on inflation averaging 2.35% over the next five years, and 2.35% over years 6-10.

[summit]

How do you hedge against a large regional war?

I don't hold any international funds that invest in China, don't hold any Chinese equities, and am working on limiting my exposure to companies that manufacture or source /w China, although indexes have built in exposure, and RIO is an indirect exposure since China buys lots of metals. FLNG could be exposed to a hot war with Iran (or China) if commerce raiding becomes the norm.

[MultiVerse]

In the past it was almost always an energy shock or the Fed that caused a recession. In a scenario like that with high government debt today and corresponding high interest payments means fiscal dominance leaves little room for the Fed to both fight inflation and fight a recession. As things stand, immigration, productivity growth and relatively cheap energy put us in a kind of Goldilocks zone. So it's a question of what type of thing could cause a shock now? War is certainly one possibility. The Fed making a policy mistake or things like a trade war etc. are other possibilities.

[Kevo]

Stagflation???

We are at historical just-below-average fed funds rate with inflation moderately above target and historically low unemployment.

I don't get this concern.

Stagflation had average double the current interest, triple the current inflation, and over twice current unemployment. Why do you think that is where we are headed?

I'm more concerned with trying to hedge for a potential hot conflict with China or Iran, though unsure how to do so other than buying defense stocks.

The economy is slowing and CPI has been rising.

The way that inflation is measured is different than the 80s. If we used the same calculations as the 80s inflation would report higher than we are currently reporting it.

No one believed inflation would go up in consecutive months in Q1 2024, but here we are.

We've run down our strategic petroleum reserve to 1983 levels at the same time that we are running up a $1 trillion deficit every 3 months.

The federal reserve is lightly tapping on the brakes while congress has their foot on the gas.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't think inflation is defeated and I don't think congress has any intention of stopping their stimulatory spending.

Ok, so what if the economy continues to expand and inflation goes back down? Cool- I'm in equities and a very specific RE play that will do well in that scenario.

But what if we end up in a downturn? Well, I guess I could have taken more off the table and waited for a crash.

[up an down]

How do you hedge against a large regional war?

I don't hold any international funds that invest in China, don't hold any Chinese equities, and am working on limiting my exposure to companies that manufacture or source /w China, although indexes have built in exposure, and RIO is an indirect exposure since China buys lots of metals. FLNG could be exposed to a hot war with Iran (or China) if commerce raiding becomes the norm.

Google search black swan funds... More than a few existing now.

[dschane]

The economy is slowing and CPI has been rising.

The way that inflation is measured is different than the 80s. If we used the same calculations as the 80s inflation would report higher than we are currently reporting it.

No one believed inflation would go up in consecutive months in Q1 2024, but here we are.

We've run down our strategic petroleum reserve to 1983 levels at the same time that we are running up a $1 trillion deficit every 3 months.

The federal reserve is lightly tapping on the brakes while congress has their foot on the gas.

I would add to the last point a good piece on the Fed's balance sheet and the status of quantitative tightening.

[LeeLau]

Google search black swan funds... More than a few existing now.

I used to buy index out of the money puts. It's a long term very patient very painful thing to do. Sadly about 1.5 years before the Covid meltdown I abandoned that play

[Cono Este]

Do a ratio next time, for even.

[Cono Este]

How do you hedge against a large regional war?

I don't hold any international funds that invest in China, don't hold any Chinese equities, and am working on limiting my exposure to companies that manufacture or source /w China, although indexes have built in exposure, and RIO is an indirect exposure since China buys lots of metals. FLNG could be exposed to a hot war with Iran (or China) if commerce raiding becomes the norm.

1/2 my portfolio is in defensive non cyclical blue chips, half big cap tech. The non cyclicals will hold up better in the future mkt melt. (I hope), the other half is big cap tech, I bought Amazon, google, coin etc 2 yrs ago, I posted. I did sell some gold, and so,e blue chips, but it worked out better. I will never sell any of that Amazon, or google, it goes to my kids. Coin, I will dump the second half at ipo price.

It’s now all hedge with the Vix. And I buy a little more every month. Of, course not a true hedge, and I could still lose, maybe vol gets crushed on the way down, but highly unlikely.

If I ever sell vix for a profit, I will short puts for good prices, in stocks I’m prepared to take delivery of, I.e. no leverage.

[LeeLau]

Do a ratio next time, for even.

Sell the calls to fund the puts? Or some sort of spread? Always interested if nothing else but for thought experiments

[fastfred]

The economy is slowing and CPI has been rising.

The way that inflation is measured is different than the 80s. If we used the same calculations as the 80s inflation would report higher than we are currently reporting it.

No one believed inflation would go up in consecutive months in Q1 2024, but here we are.

We've run down our strategic petroleum reserve to 1983 levels at the same time that we are running up a $1 trillion deficit every 3 months.

The federal reserve is lightly tapping on the brakes while congress has their foot on the gas.

I don't have a crystal ball, but I don't think inflation is defeated and I don't think congress has any intention of stopping their stimulatory spending.

Ok, so what if the economy continues to expand and inflation goes back down? Cool- I'm in equities and a very specific RE play that will do well in that scenario.

But what if we end up in a downturn? Well, I guess I could have taken more off the table and waited for a crash.

this

wage growth will continue upward especially for trades and service industry work
the white collars are desperate to tamp down wage increases and decrease wages back down to 2018 levels
they liked it better when these people made less and they (white collars) could afford to spend more on goods and services

since the majority of people elected to govt office these days are all into showmanship and personal advancement in life vs altruistic good for the country
they are going to run us into the ground with debt
it's absolutely insane

something has to give but what it is who knows
this winter was the biggest slow down I've had since 2017/2018 shit fell off the cliff
but guess what? Now I'm running ragged the volume back to insanity
just endless people miffed over the costs

[byates1]

watched the doc last night. interesting look at MMT explained. on board w some of it. what say our great financial thinkers of the padded room?

[rod9301]

since the majority of people elected to govt office these days are all into showmanship and personal advancement in life vs altruistic good for the country

they are going to run us into the ground with debt


Very true, but you forgot to mention the obscene amounts of money they are making, bribes

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

[rod9301]

watched the doc last night. interesting look at MMT explained. on board w some of it. what say our great financial thinkers of the padded room?

MMT is the stupidest idea in a long time. Politicians love it because they never have to cut spending

Sent from my moto g 5G using Tapatalk

[byates1]

What's she's positing is that since the dawn of man law has been established first, and taxation is the engine that creates the need for currency etc.

That the national debt is really a representation of resources outlayed to the citizens (although unjustly allocated en masse disproportionaly)

Imo the gov recklessly spending these perceived needed resources is a huge issue. Some of the points are interesting.

Politicians love harping on the national debt topic. Although weaponizing any talking point is fine.

[Danno]

MMT is the stupidest idea in a long time. Politicians love it because they never have to cut spending

I'm no economist, but I have been hearing screaming about how deficits/debt are going to destroy us since before I was even old enough to vote, and I'm 56. And both parties have continued to run up that debt, my entire adult life. When are they going to destroy us again?

[summit]

watched the doc last night. interesting look at MMT explained. on board w some of it. what say our great financial thinkers of the padded room?

I'm not a great financial thinker, but minus her click-bait sound-bites, her TED talk point is:

Deficit spending:
1. Has a cost for all
2. Has a benefit for many/few depending
So make sure you deficit spend wisely and appropriately so that the benefit outweighs the cost

Or is there more to it than that?

[J. Barron DeJong]

I'm no economist, but I have been hearing screaming about how deficits/debt are going to destroy us since before I was even old enough to vote, and I'm 56. And both parties have continued to run up that debt, my entire adult life. When are they going to destroy us again?

The issue with MMT is that they basically say that the size of the debt/deficit CAN’T cause problems.

There are a lot of mainstream economists who speak out against debt fearmongering, but they still acknowledge that debt CAN become an issue.