Is the stock market going to tank?

**4matic** · 07-26-2007, 08:47 PM

Ten year rate chart. Blame Greenspan. He overshot on interest rates.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quo...&freq=1&time=8

**4matic** · 07-26-2007, 08:52 PM

Originally Posted by up an down

a "huge sponge of new consumption" doesn't automatically imply low inflation. in fact the more demand for the physical commodities and energy required to produce products for hays's sponge to soak up, the higher the cost of those commodities and energy. hence inflation in the metal, food, fiber and energy markets.

I'm looking for the CRB to rollover soon and even if it doesn't gov't inflation rates will be low in the US next year. Bernanke said so..

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/W

**up an down** · 07-26-2007, 08:55 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Ten year rate chart. Blame Greenspan. He overshot on interest rates.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quo...&freq=1&time=8

blame greenspan for what exactly? the fed doesn't determine ten year rates

**up an down** · 07-26-2007, 08:58 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

I'm looking for the CRB to rollover soon and even if it doesn't gov't inflation rates will be low in the US next year. Bernanke said so..

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/W

how does anything bernanke says or doesn't say change demand for commodities?

**4matic** · 07-26-2007, 09:16 PM

Originally Posted by up an down

blame greenspan for what exactly? the fed doesn't determine ten year rates

The ten year failed miserably at the funds rate, 5.25, twice. It's too high. The funds rate should have never been above 4.50. The good news is we have Bernanke to clean up this mess.

**4matic** · 07-26-2007, 09:20 PM

Originally Posted by up an down

how does anything bernanke says or doesn't say change demand for commodities?

Housing slowdown, which is what the fed wanted, will affect commodity prices. Count on it.

**up an down** · 07-26-2007, 09:31 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Housing slowdown, which is what the fed wanted, will affect commodity prices. Count on it.

i disagree, commodity demand is strong worldwide , a couple hundred thousand new homes not built in the usa won't affect demand much

**up an down** · 07-26-2007, 09:40 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

The ten year failed miserably at the funds rate, 5.25, twice. It's too high. The funds rate should have never been above 4.50. The good news is we have Bernanke to clean up this mess.

i think the ten year is in a down trend that has little to do with the fed rate.
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,...bardensity=LOW not that i was a fan of greenspan, but i don't expect miracles from the fed, bernanke or no bernanke

**4matic** · 07-26-2007, 09:45 PM

Originally Posted by up an down

i think the ten year is in a down trend that has little to do with the fed rate.
http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,...bardensity=LOW not that i was a fan of greenspan, but i don't expect miracles from the fed, bernanke or no bernanke

What do you mean by downtrend?

OBTW: That monthly chart from CBOT is 30 days behind..

**Cono Este** · 07-26-2007, 10:11 PM

Erational Exuberance anybody?

Greenspan all though obviously a very intelligent man, was not the best. How about him knee jerking rates up for a "soft landing" in 99, only to do an immediate 180? 7.5% muni's were the best trade of 2000.

**Benny Profane** · 07-26-2007, 11:20 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Housing slowdown, which is what the fed wanted, will affect commodity prices. Count on it.

Isn't China gobbling up stuff like a dunken pig?

**CUBUCK** · 07-27-2007, 07:37 AM

Originally Posted by up an down

are you seriously calling this the bottom? if so, why?

I work specifically in financials and financial stocks were cheap on Weds, now they are trading very close to August 1998 valuation levels. If I liked something at $30 on Weds I love it at $26 on friday.

In general I think stocks are still cheap vs. historical valuation metrics. Maybe its not the bottom but its going to be close. Too many doom and gloomers out there and its opening up alot of buying opportunities.

**BeanDip4All** · 07-27-2007, 08:21 AM

Originally Posted by CUBUCK

I work specifically in financials and financial stocks were cheap on Weds, now they are trading very close to August 1998 valuation levels. If I liked something at $30 on Weds I love it at $26 on friday.

In general I think stocks are still cheap vs. historical valuation metrics. Maybe its not the bottom but its going to be close. Too many doom and gloomers out there and its opening up alot of buying opportunities.

WRONG!!

they barely retraced. nmost of them are going to get downgrades in eps very soon- this is just a bounce ... may last till tues.

The financial are still over valued based on this whole CDO mortgage crap. You can trade them for a quick bounce ( +10% max).

**CUBUCK** · 07-27-2007, 08:34 AM

Originally Posted by BeanDip4All

WRONG!!

they barely retraced. nmost of them are going to get downgrades in eps very soon- this is just a bounce ... may last till tues.

The financial are still over valued based on this whole CDO mortgage crap. You can trade them for a quick bounce ( +10% max).

barely retraced? You're right the S&P is up 4.5% this year and S&P financial index is down 8.2%.

May last til tuesday? Is that what the magic 8 ball told you? Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with 90% of these companies.

**BeanDip4All** · 07-27-2007, 08:49 AM

Originally Posted by CUBUCK

barely retraced? You're right the S&P is up 4.5% this year and S&P financial index is down 8.2%.

May last til tuesday? Is that what the magic 8 ball told you? Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with 90% of these companies.

well, you've got the credit market, which is in ruins right now.

meanwhile, we can't get any issues done, and deals are falling apart.

and news issue are Libor +7% + - that translates into a 13% - 14% coupon on the new LBO deals. NO WAY! You've got 350 Billion dealing that need to be funded... banks are eating shit. Can't get anyone to buy the debt.

it's a very bad situation, i've heard money markets are in trouble too, how is that for a clincher?

**CUBUCK** · 07-27-2007, 09:10 AM

Originally Posted by BeanDip4All

well, you've got the credit market, which is in ruins right now.

meanwhile, we can't get any issues done, and deals are falling apart.

and news issue are Libor +7% + - that translates into a 13% - 14% coupon on the new LBO deals. NO WAY! You've got 350 Billion dealing that need to be funded... banks are eating shit. Can't get anyone to buy the debt.

it's a very bad situation, i've heard money markets are in trouble too, how is that for a clincher?

You and your hearsay.

You think JPM wants to get shut out of another $20 billion dollar PE IPO? These deals will get done because no bank wants to see that steady flow advisory and underwriting fees from PE dry up.

Lets just look back at this at the end of the year and see what happens

**stupendous man** · 07-27-2007, 09:14 AM

Wow. I know jack shit about the market. It's like watching two guys argue in japanese.

Let me just ask my q: Would you get in on a commodities fund right now?

**lemon boy** · 07-27-2007, 09:23 AM

SELL SELL SELL SELL SELLL!

**BeanDip4All** · 07-27-2007, 09:23 AM

Originally Posted by stupendous man

watching two guys argue

my delicate feminine sensibilities take offense to this!

**Cono Este** · 07-27-2007, 09:27 AM

Originally Posted by BeanDip4All

WRONG!!

they barely retraced. nmost of them are going to get downgrades in eps very soon- this is just a bounce ... may last till tues.

The financial are still over valued based on this whole CDO mortgage crap. You can trade them for a quick bounce ( +10% max).

Don't predict, react!!!

**stupendous man** · 07-27-2007, 09:29 AM

**BeanDip4All** · 07-27-2007, 09:30 AM

Originally Posted by CUBUCK

You think JPM wants to get shut out of another $20 billion dollar PE IPO? These deals will get done because no bank wants to see that steady flow advisory and underwriting fees from PE dry up.

nope. we will try. Who are you having buying the debt? Not us! Kind of defeats the purpose of all our fees.

it all depends on the credit spreads.

kkr just pulled their ipo and another LBO debt offering; never a good sign when the blue guys cant sell the good stuff.

**Cono Este** · 07-27-2007, 09:31 AM

Street whores!!! All of you!

**MeatPuppet** · 07-27-2007, 09:48 AM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Don't predict, react!!!

Word.

.....

**4matic** · 07-27-2007, 09:58 AM

Originally Posted by stupendous man

Wow. I know jack shit about the market. It's like watching two guys argue in japanese.

Let me just ask my q: Would you get in on a commodities fund right now?

Commodities funds don't just buy commodities. They trade actively. I wouldn't recomend a commodities fund unless you had a spare $500k sitting around.

Note: If you are talking about a commodities mutual fund that tracks an index like an ETF that's probobly ok.