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  1. #126
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    Ten year rate chart. Blame Greenspan. He overshot on interest rates.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quo...&freq=1&time=8

  2. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    a "huge sponge of new consumption" doesn't automatically imply low inflation. in fact the more demand for the physical commodities and energy required to produce products for hays's sponge to soak up, the higher the cost of those commodities and energy. hence inflation in the metal, food, fiber and energy markets.
    I'm looking for the CRB to rollover soon and even if it doesn't gov't inflation rates will be low in the US next year. Bernanke said so..

    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/W

  3. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Ten year rate chart. Blame Greenspan. He overshot on interest rates.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quo...&freq=1&time=8
    blame greenspan for what exactly? the fed doesn't determine ten year rates
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  4. #129
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    I'm looking for the CRB to rollover soon and even if it doesn't gov't inflation rates will be low in the US next year. Bernanke said so..

    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CR/W
    how does anything bernanke says or doesn't say change demand for commodities?
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  5. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    blame greenspan for what exactly? the fed doesn't determine ten year rates
    The ten year failed miserably at the funds rate, 5.25, twice. It's too high. The funds rate should have never been above 4.50. The good news is we have Bernanke to clean up this mess.

  6. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    how does anything bernanke says or doesn't say change demand for commodities?
    Housing slowdown, which is what the fed wanted, will affect commodity prices. Count on it.

  7. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Housing slowdown, which is what the fed wanted, will affect commodity prices. Count on it.
    i disagree, commodity demand is strong worldwide , a couple hundred thousand new homes not built in the usa won't affect demand much
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  8. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    The ten year failed miserably at the funds rate, 5.25, twice. It's too high. The funds rate should have never been above 4.50. The good news is we have Bernanke to clean up this mess.
    i think the ten year is in a down trend that has little to do with the fed rate.
    http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,...bardensity=LOW not that i was a fan of greenspan, but i don't expect miracles from the fed, bernanke or no bernanke
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  9. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    i think the ten year is in a down trend that has little to do with the fed rate.
    http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,...bardensity=LOW not that i was a fan of greenspan, but i don't expect miracles from the fed, bernanke or no bernanke
    What do you mean by downtrend? OBTW: That monthly chart from CBOT is 30 days behind..
    Last edited by 4matic; 07-26-2007 at 09:52 PM.

  10. #135
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    Erational Exuberance anybody?

    Greenspan all though obviously a very intelligent man, was not the best. How about him knee jerking rates up for a "soft landing" in 99, only to do an immediate 180? 7.5% muni's were the best trade of 2000.

  11. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Housing slowdown, which is what the fed wanted, will affect commodity prices. Count on it.
    Isn't China gobbling up stuff like a dunken pig?

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  12. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by up an down View Post
    are you seriously calling this the bottom? if so, why?
    I work specifically in financials and financial stocks were cheap on Weds, now they are trading very close to August 1998 valuation levels. If I liked something at $30 on Weds I love it at $26 on friday.

    In general I think stocks are still cheap vs. historical valuation metrics. Maybe its not the bottom but its going to be close. Too many doom and gloomers out there and its opening up alot of buying opportunities.
    Last edited by CUBUCK; 07-27-2007 at 07:40 AM.

  13. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by CUBUCK View Post
    I work specifically in financials and financial stocks were cheap on Weds, now they are trading very close to August 1998 valuation levels. If I liked something at $30 on Weds I love it at $26 on friday.

    In general I think stocks are still cheap vs. historical valuation metrics. Maybe its not the bottom but its going to be close. Too many doom and gloomers out there and its opening up alot of buying opportunities.
    WRONG!!

    they barely retraced. nmost of them are going to get downgrades in eps very soon- this is just a bounce ... may last till tues.

    The financial are still over valued based on this whole CDO mortgage crap. You can trade them for a quick bounce ( +10% max).

  14. #139
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanDip4All View Post
    WRONG!!

    they barely retraced. nmost of them are going to get downgrades in eps very soon- this is just a bounce ... may last till tues.

    The financial are still over valued based on this whole CDO mortgage crap. You can trade them for a quick bounce ( +10% max).
    barely retraced? You're right the S&P is up 4.5% this year and S&P financial index is down 8.2%.

    May last til tuesday? Is that what the magic 8 ball told you? Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with 90% of these companies.

  15. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by CUBUCK View Post
    barely retraced? You're right the S&P is up 4.5% this year and S&P financial index is down 8.2%.

    May last til tuesday? Is that what the magic 8 ball told you? Fundamentally there is nothing wrong with 90% of these companies.
    well, you've got the credit market, which is in ruins right now.

    meanwhile, we can't get any issues done, and deals are falling apart.

    and news issue are Libor +7% + - that translates into a 13% - 14% coupon on the new LBO deals. NO WAY! You've got 350 Billion dealing that need to be funded... banks are eating shit. Can't get anyone to buy the debt.

    it's a very bad situation, i've heard money markets are in trouble too, how is that for a clincher?

  16. #141
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanDip4All View Post
    well, you've got the credit market, which is in ruins right now.

    meanwhile, we can't get any issues done, and deals are falling apart.

    and news issue are Libor +7% + - that translates into a 13% - 14% coupon on the new LBO deals. NO WAY! You've got 350 Billion dealing that need to be funded... banks are eating shit. Can't get anyone to buy the debt.

    it's a very bad situation, i've heard money markets are in trouble too, how is that for a clincher?
    You and your hearsay.

    You think JPM wants to get shut out of another $20 billion dollar PE IPO? These deals will get done because no bank wants to see that steady flow advisory and underwriting fees from PE dry up.

    Lets just look back at this at the end of the year and see what happens

  17. #142
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    Wow. I know jack shit about the market. It's like watching two guys argue in japanese.

    Let me just ask my q: Would you get in on a commodities fund right now?

  18. #143
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    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELLL!
    "It is not the result that counts! It is not the result but the spirit! Not what - but how. Not what has been attained - but at what price.
    - A. Solzhenitsyn

  19. #144
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    Quote Originally Posted by stupendous man View Post
    watching two guys argue
    my delicate feminine sensibilities take offense to this!

  20. #145
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    Quote Originally Posted by BeanDip4All View Post
    WRONG!!

    they barely retraced. nmost of them are going to get downgrades in eps very soon- this is just a bounce ... may last till tues.

    The financial are still over valued based on this whole CDO mortgage crap. You can trade them for a quick bounce ( +10% max).
    Don't predict, react!!!

  21. #146
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  22. #147
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    Quote Originally Posted by CUBUCK View Post
    You think JPM wants to get shut out of another $20 billion dollar PE IPO? These deals will get done because no bank wants to see that steady flow advisory and underwriting fees from PE dry up.

    nope. we will try. Who are you having buying the debt? Not us! Kind of defeats the purpose of all our fees.

    it all depends on the credit spreads.

    kkr just pulled their ipo and another LBO debt offering; never a good sign when the blue guys cant sell the good stuff.

  23. #148
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    Street whores!!! All of you!

  24. #149
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    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Don't predict, react!!!
    Word.

    .....

  25. #150
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    Quote Originally Posted by stupendous man View Post
    Wow. I know jack shit about the market. It's like watching two guys argue in japanese.

    Let me just ask my q: Would you get in on a commodities fund right now?

    Commodities funds don't just buy commodities. They trade actively. I wouldn't recomend a commodities fund unless you had a spare $500k sitting around.

    Note: If you are talking about a commodities mutual fund that tracks an index like an ETF that's probobly ok.
    Last edited by 4matic; 07-27-2007 at 10:04 AM.

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