Is the stock market going to tank?

[Name Redacted]

This sure looks like the sum is increasing over time:
Attachment 449611

Trying to beat the market returns is zero sum, if you want to call it that, but anyone can just buy and hold the broad market and expect to see positive returns.

That's what I was getting at. But if everyone just bought and held indefinitely, it wouldn't be as exciting as your chart there.

[Brock Landers]

I think the mantra "timing the market doesn't work"comes from investment banks and advisors who don't make money unless you're invested

Missing the stock market’s 10 best days over the last 30 years cuts your return in half. And 80% of the markets best days occur during bear markets.

But I’m sure you’ve beaten the market with timing and T-bills.

[gravitylover]

One of my stocks went up over 30% today, that was nice to see. Too bad it's still under a dollar but I have next to nothing into it because I took out the principal years ago then bought more under 50 cents recently. ABML reported that the lithium deposit on their claims is one of the biggest ever in the US and they're starting mining asap and their processing facility is also getting ready to come online. If you're into penny stocks it might be worth getting some of this.

[4matic]

Penny stock mining companies based in Nevada. Same as it ever was.

[gravitylover]

Yes but they also have a refining facility at their battery metal recycling plant which is just about to go fully active. Most miners don't have anything more than just the mining operation.

[BobMc]

"Inferred Resource

Inferred mineral resource is that part of a mineral resource for which quantity and grade or quality are estimated on the basis of limited geological evidence and sampling. The level of geological uncertainty associated with an inferred mineral resource is too high to apply relevant technical and economic factors likely to influence the prospects of economic extraction in a manner useful for evaluation of economic viability. Because an inferred mineral resource has the lowest level of geological confidence of all mineral resources, which prevents the application of the modifying factors in a manner useful for evaluation of economic viability, an inferred mineral resource may not be considered when assessing the economic viability of a mining project, and may not be converted to a mineral reserve."

The fine print on their website...

When looking at Google maps there is no activity whatsoever where they say they are developing. If this was an actual project you'd think you'd be able to see some trucks or something out there. About 20 years ago I worked for a guy who had relatives that would pay him a couple thousand dollars to use his name on a board of directors for some of these "mining companies." It was all a scam, pump and dump and the company would go out of business.

Not saying that shit is a scam, but I wouldn't put my money into it. I bought a few penny stocks when I first started investing, lost money on all of them. Vowed not to fall for that shit again.

[Kevo]

Is now the time for everyone who has "potential bank contagion" on their 2023 economic bingo card to mark that box?

[dunfree]

It’s only systemic if you think a bank with a $1 billion dollar wine loan portfolio, and a bunch of shitty startups, is broadly linked

[Truckee Joe]

Is now the time for everyone who has "potential bank contagion" on their 2023 economic bingo card to mark that box?

No way, I read that all the BIG banks are very capitalized and diversified in their holdings. The smaller banks are at risk though. More consolidation coming...

[Cono Este]

Unbelievable this Silicon Valley bank lost its ass in treasuries. Can’t believe they do not hedge that shit.

If that’s the standard, more to come.

[LeeLau]

Per SVIB

If you owned a 2% bond and new bonds were paying 4%, who would buy your bond if you needed to sell before it matured?

[J. Barron DeJong]

Banking system is exceptionally strong right now:



https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...ecord.html?m=1

One small bank making some bad bets on treasuries isn’t going to take down the system.

[BobMc]

I'm over here selling puts today, hoping for an afternoon rebound. If not, I'll be in stuff a lot cheaper than a few days ago.

[AK47bp]

My wife works (worked) for SVB. Not a good morning.

CEO sold 12,000 shares last week (ain’t that illegal?)

Hopeful now that FDIC took over she’ll at least get her final paycheck.

[Cono Este]

Per SVIB

If you owned a 2% bond and new bonds were paying 4%, who would buy your bond if you needed to sell before it matured?

Why are they taking a position?

[Stu Gotz]

It's really odd that a run happened at all? The loss is substantial, but not debilitating. I'm wondering if tech's recent history with the crypto markets has clouded everyone's judgement in regards to the resiliency of certain banks. SVB is not FTX, but I'm guessing a lot of tech folks aren't waiting around to see what happens.

[Mazderati]

@AK That sucks. Hope it works out.

I'm sure the selling is just a big coincidence.

[Cono Este]

Banking system is exceptionally strong right now:



https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...ecord.html?m=1

One small bank making some bad bets on treasuries isn’t going to take down the system.

Hopefully not. If they all were, we’d be bartering with our bodies after last yrs treasury dump.

[J. Barron DeJong]

Hopefully not. If they all were, we’d be bartering with our bodies after last yrs treasury dump.

I take it all back, we’re doomed:

[J. Barron DeJong]

It's really odd that a run happened at all? The loss is substantial, but not debilitating. I'm wondering if tech's recent history with the crypto markets has clouded everyone's judgement in regards to the resiliency of certain banks. SVB is not FTX, but I'm guessing a lot of tech folks aren't waiting around to see what happens.

[skaredshtles]

How is it that the deposits are *not* insured?

Is it because of the *type* of deposit?

This is very odd...

[JimmyCarter]

How is it that the deposits are *not* insured?

Is it because of the *type* of deposit?

This is very odd...

It’s because most accounts there are much greater than 250k, and the deposited dollars above that amount are uninsured.

You’re a VC backed company that just raised $30 million in a new round, you gotta put that cash somewhere.

[sirbumpsalot]

I take it all back, we’re doomed:

Worse:

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/stat...39856924860416

[skaredshtles]

It’s because most accounts there are much greater than 250k, and the deposited dollars above that amount are uninsured.

You’re a VC backed company that just raised $30 million in a new round, you gotta put that cash somewhere.

Gotcha. Makes sense. So there may be some commercial customers in Silicon Valley that take quite a haircut, eh?

[J. Barron DeJong]

Worse:

https://twitter.com/WatcherGuru/stat...39856924860416

Ha! What a guy.