Is the stock market going to tank?

[stalefish3169]

My time frame is not one day. If I had Any kind of short term trade on, which I don’t, would have blown out. I will say if AMZN grinds down tomorrow and closes below $3k I’d be wary. It’s still within a well defined side wise channel.

Edit: I just looked at the chart. $3150 is the bottom of the channel. Barely a recovery after all that.

After reading your posts for years it's clear that you're one of the wiser investors here. I'm sure you use a long-term horizon. I have no idea what Amazon will do. But I hope your portfolio, and everyone else's, continues to increase in value.

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

[4matic]

Pimco BOND is at 2.7% yield today. HYG and JNK are selling off with some momentum too. Yields are getting interesting depending on your needs and risk tolerance

[californiagrown]

Who is going to put medical data in FB’s hands?

That makes even less sense than turning it over to AWS

I'm thinking more license the software and sell the hardware associated with the AR and VR tech they are developing. Medical records totally separate. Similar to how Autodesk doesn't see the plans and .dwg files my teams create in Autocad, or dell doesn't see the medical records even though Dell computers are used in hospitals (unless Dell does their servers too).


I think of AR as going from one computer monitor at your desk, to three. All information is right there in front of you and makes work/life more efficient. And this society loves becoming more efficient. VR has the obvious applications, but with 5G integration, lots more things could be done.

[californiagrown]

^^ that said, I don't see it becoming widespread for another decade, sooo idk. Also, I have no SM, so my finger isn't on that pulse.

[4matic]

Fresh high on the 10y 1.95%

[schuss]

I'm thinking more license the software and sell the hardware associated with the AR and VR tech they are developing. Medical records totally separate. Similar to how Autodesk doesn't see the plans and .dwg files my teams create in Autocad, or dell doesn't see the medical records even though Dell computers are used in hospitals (unless Dell does their servers too).


I think of AR as going from one computer monitor at your desk, to three. All information is right there in front of you and makes work/life more efficient. And this society loves becoming more efficient. VR has the obvious applications, but with 5G integration, lots more things could be done.

Meta's entire business revolves around owning the platform for human interaction and experience. They've tanked a lot of that by being evil assholes. The slide will continue until Suck gets the boot and they foundationally change practices, which will never happen.
No one in tech trusts them and at this point it's almost a black mark on the resume if you choose to work for them.
When's the last time you bet on a company that has to overpay for talent and has zero consumer trust while only having consumer facing products.

[shera]

Meta's entire business revolves around owning the platform for human interaction and experience. They've tanked a lot of that by being evil assholes. The slide will continue until Suck gets the boot and they foundationally change practices, which will never happen.
No one in tech trusts them and at this point it's almost a black mark on the resume if you choose to work for them.
When's the last time you bet on a company that has to overpay for talent and has zero consumer trust while only having consumer facing products.

I love this. If there is any justice in the world...

[schuss]

I love this. If there is any justice in the world...

It's not justice, it's just that poor management and practices eventually bite you in the ass. Every company they've acquired has the founders now saying they were lied to and it was a mistake (Whatsapp, one of instagram). They have massive structural liability in the internal research they've done that proves the harm of their practices yet they continue them (this is potentially tobacco level liability for things like suicides and crimes as an enabling platform). They have massive security liabilities in the stuff they let happen and continue to let happen in terms of data harvesting by malicious parties (Cambridge Analytica etc.). Their big bet on VR is unlikely to pan out as it's expensive and requires space and money that most don't have, coupled with many of their target market being 100% unwilling to purchase facebook products after they've doubled back on oculus promises (no facebook account was a big promise they've since broken) and have zero commitment to data privacy. If they were smart, they'd spin out Instagram and put it under different leadership to get ahead of antitrust/consumer sentiment, move Zuckerberg to board chair with a new CEO and get him to shut up and hide, then implement common data controls that they have to anyway for EU/Asia as part of a trust building program. They won't though, as Zuckerberg and Sandberg are entirely too convinced of their own superiority.

[oldnew_guy]

Goddamn I hate tech companies and their commoditization of our attention and personal data.

I routinely try to get my wife to stop using Facebook and Amazon (add on worker abuse and a platform full of counterfeit product) to no avail. I’ve been getting away from google slowly, but I think my expectations of search results is so tuned to their alogorithm I have problems with other engines.

It’s pretty amazing to me that apple making a subtle change in how privacy is handled on their phones hit Facebook so hard. I laughed out loud at the headlines the other day about taking their ball and going home if the EU doesn’t change their GDPR rules about offshore data storage.l and processing.

Unfortunately, my understanding is that “Facebook” and “internet” are often synonymous in much of the world at this point.

[4matic]

I think people are just tired of FB as it became so divisive and a platform that truth outs crazy friends. I expect daily actives and user engagement to tank. Instagram is still ok for entertainment and is their best hope.

[4matic]

10Y note highest close since 7/19

[Kevo]

Inflation is at 7.5% and the Fed is still doing QE and "thinking" about maybe raising interest rates a tiny bit. The fed is a joke, and neither party wants to hold the bag.

Guess we're just going to go all in on inflation. Anything to keep the asset bubbles from bursting.

[fastfred]

Inflation is at 7.5% and the Fed is still doing QE and "thinking" about maybe raising interest rates a tiny bit. The fed is a joke, and neither party wants to hold the bag.

Guess we're just going to go all in on inflation. Anything to keep the asset bubbles from bursting.

this
fuck n a

bunch of shit bags I tell you they know what will happen it's either going to be a minor blip a slow roll to some uncomfortable despair or an absolute cratering
since poor people don't matter who cares that your spending more on everything
the stock market bs and over priced real estate...................

[BobMc]

That inflation data and resulting yield increase bursted my daily bubble. I was up about 1% early and ended up down 1.3%.

Worked out ok though, my SOFI call went above strike early (expiry is tomorrow) and then went below with the swoon. It doesn’t matter a whole lot as either way I’m getting my 10% from the trade. But, I’d rather not be assigned, keep my shares, and sell another call Monday morning hoping for a Super Bowl stadium/commercial bump.

I’d be ok with another swoon tomorrow as it’s EPD distribution day, at the current price I’ll be grabbing 8.66 shares with DRIP, I’d be ok with more. I also have some dry powder to buy another 300 shares if it drops to where I want it.

Polestar has a commercial in the Super Bowl as well, Super Bowl commercials aren’t my idea of investing advice but some analysts think they’ll see a Monday bump. Lee, you may be able to make some cash selling GGPI calls Monday morning.

[4matic]

Sorry, but I think Powell is going to get tested and not sure he’s up to it. A technical move in the 10y can take it to 2.25 or higher in a hurry.

[LeeLau]

Lee, you may be able to make some cash selling GGPI calls Monday morning.

I own some GGPI calls Bob plus the underlying. That would be a good time to unload them. GGPI is already moving nicely. It'd be nice to cash them in

[sirbumpsalot]

Inflation is at 7.5% and the Fed is still doing QE and "thinking" about maybe raising interest rates a tiny bit. The fed is a joke, and neither party wants to hold the bag.

Guess we're just going to go all in on inflation. Anything to keep the asset bubbles from bursting.

BUILD BACK BETTER will solve all this!

[4matic]

I sold CVX and BP the last two days to raise some cash for other purposes because my timeframe is now months. I have XOM in a deferred and regret not selling above $80. I think it's mostly over for the big oil stocks but they are still solid payers.

[Kevo]

Sorry, but I think Powell is going to get tested and not sure he’s up to it. A technical move in the 10y can take it to 2.25 or higher in a hurry.

Has there ever been a time in history where inflation was controlled with a EFFR 1/30th or 1/15th of inflation? Are we honestly supposed to believe that a 25 basis point hike or even a 50 basis point hike is going to put a dent in inflation?

What the hell is Jerome thinking? People are going to go hungry. What will we do? Just print more money?

[4matic]

The fed knows consumer confidence will collapse if asset prices fall too much and too fast but they are stuck.

[dschane]

I don't know. Cathie Wood may be right about this - the bond market currently thinks inflation won't persist. Personally, I have found the contrary arguments more persuasive and my YOLO money is out of equities and in options betting against 20-year+ bonds and against junk bonds.

[Kevo]

I don't know. Cathie Wood may be right about this - the bond market currently thinks inflation won't persist. Personally, I have found the contrary arguments more persuasive and my YOLO money is out of equities and in options betting against 20-year+ bonds and against junk bonds.

The Fed is still actively bugging bonds, which is suppressing rates and keeping coupons high. The bond market is hardly indicative of future inflation expectations given the continued QE, no?

[dschane]

The Fed is still actively bugging bonds, which is suppressing rates and keeping coupons high. The bond market is hardly indicative of future inflation expectations given the continued QE, no?

I don't disagree. And this guy made that point yesterday:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...?sref=5frvVJaF

[J. Barron DeJong]

Sorry, but I think Powell is going to get tested and not sure he’s up to it. A technical move in the 10y can take it to 2.25 or higher in a hurry.

Question: Are y’all aware of the estimated lag time for monetary policy to take effect?



The fed isn’t setting policy based on what is happening RIGHT NOW. They have pretty limited ability to affect that. If the lag time is measured in years, do you think the Fed should have jacked rates at the star of the pandemic in anticipation of the inflation we’re seeing now?

Not saying the inflation is good, just that I think the Fed is limited in its ability to respond to a bout of inflation that comes on somewhat rapidly and that the market still expects to be transitory.

[sirbumpsalot]

I sold CVX and BP the last two days to raise some cash for other purposes because my timeframe is now months. I have XOM in a deferred and regret not selling above $80. I think it's mostly over for the big oil stocks but they are still solid payers.

Putin to invade Ukraine....OIL up....Rates down....doof!