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  1. #15051
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,431
    A big pullback in WTI can add fuel to a decline. XOM can go back $60 in a couple days.

  2. #15052
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,431
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Skipping rate hikes is well nigh impossible at present
    It might be one and done though. QE has to be finished for at least a few years

  3. #15053
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    13,137
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    A big pullback in WTI can add fuel to a decline. XOM can go back $60 in a couple days.
    You've definitely called it well the past few weeks. VIX is eyebrow raising high despite the lack of panic.

    So far my boomer port (oil/gas, Reits, gold) rise has not compensated for the price drops in the tech part of the port. And I think you're likely correct that even my boomer port will start tanking

  4. #15054
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,431
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    You've definitely called it well the past few weeks. VIX is eyebrow raising high despite the lack of panic.

    So far my boomer port (oil/gas, Reits, gold) rise has not compensated for the price drops in the tech part of the port. And I think you're likely correct that even my boomer port will start tanking
    I always lean skeptical so I have my days..

    I wasnít going to go there and use the B word but how much pain can they take before looking for an exit? Especially with rates up a bit. Im thinking the phones are starting to light up at Fisher Investments

  5. #15055
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    11,101
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    SP500 took out the December low and bounced back. That should clean out a lot of trading longs.

    AMZN down $1k from its high. Still has another $800 to go on the chart
    That because my brother was hired there and given a pile of options. Guy has the worst luck.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  6. #15056
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,431
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    That because my brother was hired there and given a pile of options. Guy has the worst luck.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    If heís up the ladder theyíll get repriced.

  7. #15057
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    11,101
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    I agree there'll be rate hikes. But the question is whether and to what extent that's priced in.

    Such a guessing game. I'm basically sitting on sidelines and thinking of taking short profits on Bynd and Pton. That's because I haven't the faintest and I'd imagine not many others do
    Well, Iím thinking SP 3500 before even thinking about buying. But this has the making of a very bad yr, Especially if shit goes bad in Europe. Energy prices will moonshot like never before. Could be a capitulation type event and some real deals to be had.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  8. #15058
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Location
    Colorado
    Posts
    1,139
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Trying to call the bottom is obviously a fool's errand - but you might consider buying in with "chunks" of cash. Just split up the next "x" months and buy in even amounts of $$ over that time period...
    I think I'm going to do this with some cash I've had on the side lines. Basically a 3-4 Qtr buying strategy at intervals in indexes. Mostly targeting the retirement fund but if the buying conditions look favorable, I hope to also use my personal investment / discretionary funds as well.

    For me, I paused buying because the run-up bubble just seemed too overvalued and was (wrongly) timing the correction. I'm kicking myself for being more cautious - when we cratered in the COVID times I moved on indexes. I've been hovering around 100% on those, a freaking index. I should have been more bold with my buying and staked a larger position. Dummy.

  9. #15059
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Cloud City
    Posts
    8,109
    What do you guys think about real estate, also a bubble to be bursted?
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  10. #15060
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    Dec 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    What do you guys think about real estate, also a bubble to be bursted?
    Takes a lot more time to fall apart.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  11. #15061
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,431
    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    What do you guys think about real estate, also a bubble to be bursted?
    It depends. REITís that collect rent still have a good yield. Homebuilders I have no idea how rates, materials, and wages are going to affect them

  12. #15062
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    If heís up the ladder theyíll get repriced.
    Way high, hoping it trickles down and I can get that plow job if been dreaming about for retirement.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  13. #15063
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    18,431

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    You've definitely called it well the past few weeks. VIX is eyebrow raising high despite the lack of panic.
    Novice option trading has exploded. How many are stuck short puts? That wiped out many individuals in the 87 crash.

    In 87 selling strangles was all the rage..

  14. #15064
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    Dec 2005
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    STL
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Novice option trading has exploded. How many are stuck short puts? That wiped out many individuals in the 87 crash.
    I remember talking to a country club ďhedge fundĒ manager pre 2008. Dumb asses actually got rich selling strangles on the mkt, then POOF! They were gone.

    I think itís time again.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  15. #15065
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    6,419
    RIVN well below IPO price. GME is under triple digits and dropping. Good day for the shorts. Buy the dip? Maybe wait a bit longer and buy the dip in the dip?

    Rate hikes are coming. Otherwise inflation will not be exiting the building.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  16. #15066
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    18,431
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    RIVN well below IPO price. GME is under triple digits and dropping. Good day for the shorts. Buy the dip? Maybe wait a bit longer and buy the dip in the dip?
    .
    Bottom not in as long as people buying dips in worthless companies like GME

  17. #15067
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
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    13,137
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Novice option trading has exploded. How many are stuck short puts? That wiped out many individuals in the 87 crash.

    In 87 selling strangles was all the rage..
    Trading volatility is such an expert's game. I have a personal promise to not touch it recognizing I'm an amateur

    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    What do you guys think about real estate, also a bubble to be bursted?
    Agreed with others. US and Canada 5y mortgage rates are still at about mid 2%? That is going to take quite a bit to wash out. Tip of the hat to you btw on trading in and out of your crypto

    Quote Originally Posted by CarlMega View Post
    For me, I paused buying because the run-up bubble just seemed too overvalued and was (wrongly) timing the correction. I'm kicking myself for being more cautious - when we cratered in the COVID times I moved on indexes. I've been hovering around 100% on those, a freaking index. I should have been more bold with my buying and staked a larger position. Dummy.
    I'm giving up gains in buy and hold tech but to 4matic's point; just for example in AMZN and MSFT I'm still up quite a bit from March 2020 in terms of buy and hold. Can't really add anything except that I read the to-the-moon market sentiment and jumped in. I was late in reading the pullback sentiment and am now paying.

  18. #15068
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Cloud City
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    8,109
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Trading volatility is such an expert's game. I have a personal promise to not touch it recognizing I'm an amateur



    Agreed with others. US and Canada 5y mortgage rates are still at about mid 2%? That is going to take quite a bit to wash out. Tip of the hat to you btw on trading in and out of your crypto



    I'm giving up gains in buy and hold tech but to 4matic's point; just for example in AMZN and MSFT I'm still up quite a bit from March 2020 in terms of buy and hold. Can't really add anything except that I read the to-the-moon market sentiment and jumped in. I was late in reading the pullback sentiment and am now paying.
    It is very hard to be buying right now, but I'm continuing with the plan. I bought this morning at 34.3k and 33.3k.

    My son is trying to decide whether to buy another house this spring. Or he could wait/rent for a year. San Antonio, Texas.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

  19. #15069
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Location
    Where the sheets have no stains
    Posts
    18,202
    In my position I have to put some funds in my SE 401K by 4/15/2022. How much depends on my tax situation and what things look like by then.

    I am not prone to panic. By sheer luck I closed a lot of positions prior to 2007 and did well, I have found I have done better by letting the pros handle the bulk of what I have in my IRA & 401K. I manage my Roth cause its small and use it as my comparison against their strategies.
    I have been in this State for 30 years and I am willing to admit that I am part of the problem.

    "Happiest years of my life were earning < $8.00 and hour, collecting unemployment every spring and fall, no car, no debt and no responsibilities. 1984-1990 Park City UT"

  20. #15070
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Posts
    1,977
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Trying to call the bottom is obviously a fool's errand - but you might consider buying in with "chunks" of cash. Just split up the next "x" months and buy in even amounts of $$ over that time period...
    Guy at my work called the top, told everyone he was calling the top and liquidated a big chunk of his 401k. He just bought back in on Friday, said he has 30% more shares for his money. And here I thought technical analysis was all smoke and mirrors...

  21. #15071
    Join Date
    Apr 2006
    Location
    Movin' On
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    3,136
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    RIVN well below IPO price. GME is under triple digits and dropping. Good day for the shorts. Buy the dip? Maybe wait a bit longer and buy the dip in the dip?

    Rate hikes are coming. Otherwise inflation will not be exiting the building.
    I sold RIVN at $142 after buying at IPO. Currently feeling like a made out like a bandit.

  22. #15072
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Verdi NV
    Posts
    10,193
    In for a penny in for a pound?

    I was sitting here watching everything tank. Clicking around look at numbers. Watching my positions drop hundreds of dollars again inter day

    Fuck it. I knew I would kick myself if I didn’t do it

    Bought 20 more shares of ndaq @ 168.
    Hey worst case I get it back some day

    Now I can move onto the real world. I only have a couple thousand left in cash. Till payday Friday

    I feel better already
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Phone trading could get you in trouble
    Click image for larger version. 

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    Own your fail. ~Jer~

  23. #15073
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    9,638
    Quote Originally Posted by shera View Post
    <snip>
    My son is trying to decide whether to buy another house this spring. Or he could wait/rent for a year. San Antonio, Texas.
    Please send my condolences to him.


  24. #15074
    Join Date
    Oct 2002
    Location
    Shadynasty's Jazz Club
    Posts
    9,648
    I clearly donít belong here, but could use some advice. Early last year I put a chunk of the kids college savings into an S&P500 index fund and a target date fund. Iím basically back to where I started today. Iím not as concerned about the youngest, but weíll be using the funds for the oldest in a few years and I donít want to start losing money. Do I pull out and wait for things to stabilize or do I ride out these lows?
    Remind me. We'll send him a red cap and a Speedo.

  25. #15075
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Cloud City
    Posts
    8,109
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Please send my condolences to him.



    He's military so he goes where they tell him. He really tried his best for Colorado Springs, couldn't swing it.

    Coming from Honolulu to San Anto, out of the frying pan and into the fire! Charms in both places, but gah the heat.
    Live each season as it passes; breathe the air, drink the drink, taste the fruit, and resign yourself to the influences of each.
    Henry David Thoreau

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