Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

A big pullback in WTI can add fuel to a decline. XOM can go back $60 in a couple days.

[4matic]

Skipping rate hikes is well nigh impossible at present

It might be one and done though. QE has to be finished for at least a few years

[LeeLau]

A big pullback in WTI can add fuel to a decline. XOM can go back $60 in a couple days.

You've definitely called it well the past few weeks. VIX is eyebrow raising high despite the lack of panic.

So far my boomer port (oil/gas, Reits, gold) rise has not compensated for the price drops in the tech part of the port. And I think you're likely correct that even my boomer port will start tanking

[4matic]

You've definitely called it well the past few weeks. VIX is eyebrow raising high despite the lack of panic.

So far my boomer port (oil/gas, Reits, gold) rise has not compensated for the price drops in the tech part of the port. And I think you're likely correct that even my boomer port will start tanking

I always lean skeptical so I have my days..

I wasn’t going to go there and use the B word but how much pain can they take before looking for an exit? Especially with rates up a bit. Im thinking the phones are starting to light up at Fisher Investments

[Cono Este]

SP500 took out the December low and bounced back. That should clean out a lot of trading longs.

AMZN down $1k from its high. Still has another $800 to go on the chart

That because my brother was hired there and given a pile of options. Guy has the worst luck.


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[4matic]

That because my brother was hired there and given a pile of options. Guy has the worst luck.


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If he’s up the ladder they’ll get repriced.

[Cono Este]

I agree there'll be rate hikes. But the question is whether and to what extent that's priced in.

Such a guessing game. I'm basically sitting on sidelines and thinking of taking short profits on Bynd and Pton. That's because I haven't the faintest and I'd imagine not many others do

Well, I’m thinking SP 3500 before even thinking about buying. But this has the making of a very bad yr, Especially if shit goes bad in Europe. Energy prices will moonshot like never before. Could be a capitulation type event and some real deals to be had.


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[CarlMega]

Trying to call the bottom is obviously a fool's errand - but you might consider buying in with "chunks" of cash. Just split up the next "x" months and buy in even amounts of $$ over that time period...

I think I'm going to do this with some cash I've had on the side lines. Basically a 3-4 Qtr buying strategy at intervals in indexes. Mostly targeting the retirement fund but if the buying conditions look favorable, I hope to also use my personal investment / discretionary funds as well.

For me, I paused buying because the run-up bubble just seemed too overvalued and was (wrongly) timing the correction. I'm kicking myself for being more cautious - when we cratered in the COVID times I moved on indexes. I've been hovering around 100% on those, a freaking index. I should have been more bold with my buying and staked a larger position. Dummy.

[shera]

What do you guys think about real estate, also a bubble to be bursted?

[Cono Este]

What do you guys think about real estate, also a bubble to be bursted?

Takes a lot more time to fall apart.


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[4matic]

What do you guys think about real estate, also a bubble to be bursted?

It depends. REIT’s that collect rent still have a good yield. Homebuilders I have no idea how rates, materials, and wages are going to affect them

[Cono Este]

If he’s up the ladder they’ll get repriced.

Way high, hoping it trickles down and I can get that plow job if been dreaming about for retirement.


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[4matic]

You've definitely called it well the past few weeks. VIX is eyebrow raising high despite the lack of panic.

Novice option trading has exploded. How many are stuck short puts? That wiped out many individuals in the 87 crash.

In 87 selling strangles was all the rage..

[Cono Este]

Novice option trading has exploded. How many are stuck short puts? That wiped out many individuals in the 87 crash.

I remember talking to a country club “hedge fund” manager pre 2008. Dumb asses actually got rich selling strangles on the mkt, then POOF! They were gone.

I think it’s time again.


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[Toadman]

RIVN well below IPO price. GME is under triple digits and dropping. Good day for the shorts. Buy the dip? Maybe wait a bit longer and buy the dip in the dip?

Rate hikes are coming. Otherwise inflation will not be exiting the building.

[4matic]

RIVN well below IPO price. GME is under triple digits and dropping. Good day for the shorts. Buy the dip? Maybe wait a bit longer and buy the dip in the dip?
.

Bottom not in as long as people buying dips in worthless companies like GME

[LeeLau]

Novice option trading has exploded. How many are stuck short puts? That wiped out many individuals in the 87 crash.

In 87 selling strangles was all the rage..

Trading volatility is such an expert's game. I have a personal promise to not touch it recognizing I'm an amateur

What do you guys think about real estate, also a bubble to be bursted?

Agreed with others. US and Canada 5y mortgage rates are still at about mid 2%? That is going to take quite a bit to wash out. Tip of the hat to you btw on trading in and out of your crypto

For me, I paused buying because the run-up bubble just seemed too overvalued and was (wrongly) timing the correction. I'm kicking myself for being more cautious - when we cratered in the COVID times I moved on indexes. I've been hovering around 100% on those, a freaking index. I should have been more bold with my buying and staked a larger position. Dummy.

I'm giving up gains in buy and hold tech but to 4matic's point; just for example in AMZN and MSFT I'm still up quite a bit from March 2020 in terms of buy and hold. Can't really add anything except that I read the to-the-moon market sentiment and jumped in. I was late in reading the pullback sentiment and am now paying.

[shera]

Trading volatility is such an expert's game. I have a personal promise to not touch it recognizing I'm an amateur



Agreed with others. US and Canada 5y mortgage rates are still at about mid 2%? That is going to take quite a bit to wash out. Tip of the hat to you btw on trading in and out of your crypto



I'm giving up gains in buy and hold tech but to 4matic's point; just for example in AMZN and MSFT I'm still up quite a bit from March 2020 in terms of buy and hold. Can't really add anything except that I read the to-the-moon market sentiment and jumped in. I was late in reading the pullback sentiment and am now paying.

It is very hard to be buying right now, but I'm continuing with the plan. I bought this morning at 34.3k and 33.3k.

My son is trying to decide whether to buy another house this spring. Or he could wait/rent for a year. San Antonio, Texas.

[Bunion 2020]

In my position I have to put some funds in my SE 401K by 4/15/2022. How much depends on my tax situation and what things look like by then.

I am not prone to panic. By sheer luck I closed a lot of positions prior to 2007 and did well, I have found I have done better by letting the pros handle the bulk of what I have in my IRA & 401K. I manage my Roth cause its small and use it as my comparison against their strategies.

[dan_pdx]

Trying to call the bottom is obviously a fool's errand - but you might consider buying in with "chunks" of cash. Just split up the next "x" months and buy in even amounts of $$ over that time period...

Guy at my work called the top, told everyone he was calling the top and liquidated a big chunk of his 401k. He just bought back in on Friday, said he has 30% more shares for his money. And here I thought technical analysis was all smoke and mirrors...

[Kevo]

RIVN well below IPO price. GME is under triple digits and dropping. Good day for the shorts. Buy the dip? Maybe wait a bit longer and buy the dip in the dip?

Rate hikes are coming. Otherwise inflation will not be exiting the building.

I sold RIVN at $142 after buying at IPO. Currently feeling like a made out like a bandit.

[MTT]

In for a penny in for a pound?

I was sitting here watching everything tank. Clicking around look at numbers. Watching my positions drop hundreds of dollars again inter day

Fuck it. I knew I would kick myself if I didn’t do it

Bought 20 more shares of ndaq @ 168.
Hey worst case I get it back some day

Now I can move onto the real world. I only have a couple thousand left in cash. Till payday Friday

I feel better already


Phone trading could get you in trouble

[skaredshtles]

<snip>
My son is trying to decide whether to buy another house this spring. Or he could wait/rent for a year. San Antonio, Texas.

Please send my condolences to him.

[bagtagley]

I clearly don’t belong here, but could use some advice. Early last year I put a chunk of the kids college savings into an S&P500 index fund and a target date fund. I’m basically back to where I started today. I’m not as concerned about the youngest, but we’ll be using the funds for the oldest in a few years and I don’t want to start losing money. Do I pull out and wait for things to stabilize or do I ride out these lows?

[shera]

Please send my condolences to him.

He's military so he goes where they tell him. He really tried his best for Colorado Springs, couldn't swing it.

Coming from Honolulu to San Anto, out of the frying pan and into the fire! Charms in both places, but gah the heat.