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  1. #101
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
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    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    47,340
    You can get a live-in Japanese masseuse? hmmm...

  2. #102
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
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    Alco-Hall of Fame
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    3,059
    just the copper in Ice's house would buy and keep a thouroughbred.
    "It is not the result that counts! It is not the result but the spirit! Not what - but how. Not what has been attained - but at what price.
    - A. Solzhenitsyn

  3. #103
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,701
    Quote Originally Posted by lemon boy View Post
    just the copper in Ice's house would buy and keep a thouroughbred.



    hmmm.....let's wait til his next Utah trip and strip the sucker.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  4. #104
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
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    Alco-Hall of Fame
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    3,059
    I dunno, seems like strippers are getting awfully expensive here:


    how about Puerto Rico?
    "It is not the result that counts! It is not the result but the spirit! Not what - but how. Not what has been attained - but at what price.
    - A. Solzhenitsyn

  5. #105
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    Stuck in perpetual Meh
    Posts
    35,257
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Yeah, Ice, you're in a good spot. Now you just have to avoid tapping in to buy that walk in humidor or the live in Japanese masseuse. Or the thoroughbred.
    That's what his portfolio is for, and ergo the worried tone in his posts....

  6. #106
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    cottonwood
    Posts
    1,443
    hmmm .. so much talk about strippers.. what say you maggots about the gold prices?

  7. #107
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    Bouldenver, Colorado
    Posts
    3,636
    gold? you mean, like the metal?

    nah. Platinum is where it's at baby, that stuff is PIMP! All future gifts of bling to me must be in platinum from now on. Or maybe that weird gray/silver stuff that looks all metallic? Hematite? That stuff is pretty cool too.
    Thrutchworthy Production Services

  8. #108
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    8,727
    It wont tank until Mon.

  9. #109
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Posts
    412
    The market will not crash, yet, more than likely there will be a correction of 5-10% over a few week period like last year, probably june or july. then the market will cruise back and have a decent but probably not spectacular year. corp balance sheets are very good. earning has outpaced stock appreciation. trailing pe ratios are better on us stocks than they were at the bottom of the mkt 5 years ago. there's ton's of liquidity out there. lots of stock buy backs. global economy is humming, outsourcing is keeping inflation in check. yes our economy is slowing but it looks like jobs mkt is still very strong which will support the consumer. if the feds do lower rates there's your catalyst. us lg caps, large european co's and select emerging will lead. timing the mkt is a fools game.

  10. #110
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    Sep 2001
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    Alco-Hall of Fame
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    3,059
    Quote Originally Posted by Yossarian View Post
    Platinum is where it's at baby, that stuff is PIMP! All future gifts of bling to me must be in platinum from now on. Or maybe that weird gray/silver stuff that looks all metallic? Hematite? That stuff is pretty cool too.
    You can totally tell what cletus has been shoppin for
    "It is not the result that counts! It is not the result but the spirit! Not what - but how. Not what has been attained - but at what price.
    - A. Solzhenitsyn

  11. #111
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    Bouldenver, Colorado
    Posts
    3,636
    Annnnnnndddddddd, YAHTZEE!

    Here we are, July 26th. DJIA from 14,000 to 13,500 in the last few days.
    Crash? No. Correction? Who knows. Below 13K? No, I was wrong about that.

    But drop? Yup, 500 points, sure enuff.
    Thrutchworthy Production Services

  12. #112
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    P-tex, CA
    Posts
    8,208
    Here's a snippet from an article I read...

    TO MANY investors, hedge funds are impenetrable "black boxes", moving in mysterious ways and holding indecipherable positions. This week, however, investors in two troubled Bear Stearns hedge funds were given a peek under the lid. What they were shown was black indeed.

    Both funds had invested heavily in securities backed by subprime mortgages. Suffering steep losses in May and June, one was saved only by a $1.6 billion loan from its parent company last month. A Bear Stearns team has been "working diligently" ever since to tot up the losses. On July 17th it admitted that there "is effectively no value left" in one of the funds, and "very little value left" in the other.

  13. #113
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    3,449
    Quote Originally Posted by Yossarian View Post
    Annnnnnndddddddd, YAHTZEE!

    Here we are, July 26th. DJIA from 14,000 to 13,500 in the last few days.
    Crash? No. Correction? Who knows. Below 13K? No, I was wrong about that.

    But drop? Yup, 500 points, sure enuff.
    it's going to bounce then continue down 10%, then rally again. call it a correction, unless the market closes down 500+ today... then then we will hit 10% really quick. worse case is 15% 11,900

  14. #114
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Denver, CO
    Posts
    6,895
    Until 2 weeks ago, the Russell 2000 was up 8.7% YTD.
    It now sits at 1.1%.

    And Apple certainly crushed expectations. Next quarter will be even higher when you factor in $300MM in sales from the iphone and $100MM in kickbacks from AT&T ($150-200 + $9 per month for 24 months * 150k new subscribers).

  15. #115
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    8,727
    This is awesome!

  16. #116
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    Oct 2005
    Location
    Point of No Return
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    2,049
    Quote Originally Posted by BeanDip4All View Post
    it's going to bounce then continue down 10%, then rally again. call it a correction, unless the market closes down 500+ today... then then we will hit 10% really quick. worse case is 15% 11,900
    A girl who's good with numbers Grrrrrr!

    I'd let you play with my digits.

  17. #117
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    the wasteland
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    3,182
    At least the market is still up since this thread started.

    Chance had it that I actually sold some of my holdings yesterday
    You see, in this world there's two kinds of people, my friend: Those with loaded guns and those who dig. You dig.

  18. #118
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    Oct 2003
    Location
    Denver
    Posts
    1,656
    Quote Originally Posted by runethechamp View Post
    At least the market is still up since this thread started.

    Chance had it that I actually sold some of my holdings yesterday
    Hope you bought them back today

  19. #119
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    781
    Quote Originally Posted by CUBUCK View Post
    Hope you bought them back today
    are you seriously calling this the bottom? if so, why?
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  20. #120
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
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    14,945
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    This is awesome!
    I hope you were positioned!

  21. #121
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    Mar 2006
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    14,945
    Quote Originally Posted by skier666 View Post
    Here's a snippet from an article I read...
    There has been black box systems since the Black-Scholes formula was developed. Portfolio insurance in the 80's. Long Term Capital in the 90's was a
    Black-Scholes investment house. Sub-Prime reminds me of the junk bond scandel aka Michael Milken.

    I'd buy Japan right here looking for a double.

    Interest rates are headed lower again which will stabilize housing soon.

  22. #122
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    Oct 2001
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    8200 S.
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    1,283
    My stock portfolio was up 2% today. Why all the worry?

  23. #123
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    781
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post

    Interest rates are headed lower again which will stabilize housing soon.
    but loan companies are tightening eligiblity requirements, and the easy money buy and flip mindset isn't as common as it used to be. i think '08 will be worse than this year for national housing, maybe a bottom in '09.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

  24. #124
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,945
    Don Hays of respected institutional service Hays Advisory is a long-time superbull who has gotten over his periodic short-term hesitations, last seen earlier in the summer. See June 18 column
    On the face of it, Hays is now as bullish as ever. Earliest this week, his e-service proclaimed "Welcome to the Last Half of this Bull Market." He noted, "The very spirited entrance of this bull market into the last half of its move, that will produce accelerating gains in these next 18-20 months."
    For the first time that I recall, however, Hays has begun to suggest that the bull won't be around forever. It appears as throwaway lines "Nobody today is looking at March or April 2009, when our guesstimate is that this bullish stock market might be ready for a meaningful correction (i.e. cyclical bear market.)"
    Meanwhile, an issue under the byline of Keith, Hays' son, succinctly summarizes the Hays Grand Strategy. Inflation, in Hays' view, is currently held down by five factors:

    * "1. Demographics: An aging world implies lower interest rates and deflationary risks rather than inflation. You have to look no further than Japan as evidence.
    * 2. Fed Obsessed with Inflation: Lived through previous inflation era and is obsessed with it.
    * 3. Technology and the Internet: Internet alone has drastically reduced the cost of information, lowering the cost and improving the productivity of business decisions (Example: airline ticket low price search vs. 10 years ago).
    * 4. Fiscal Policy Competition: U.S. pricing must compete with pricing of every free trade country & vice versa, keeping prices low.
    * 5. Free Trade and Globalization (Glut of Labor): Labor makes up 65-70% of the final cost of goods and services. With a global glut of labor, workers lose their pricing power, putting another lid on inflation."

    Or, in another Hays summary:
    "The Technology Revolution
    produces
    A Massive New Flat World
    which ignites
    A Spread of Democracy
    which unleashes
    A Huge Sponge of New Consumption,
    which launches
    The Greatest Economic Boom in the History of the World
    which results in
    Huge Stock Market Potential"
    I don't immediately see why this happy situation would end as early as 2009.
    But, meanwhile, here's Hays' recommended asset allocation:

    * Long-term growth: 100% in stocks.
    * Moderate growth: 85% in stocks, 15% in bonds.
    * Conservative growth: 65% in stocks, 35% in bonds
    End of Story

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...774BB17054A%7D

  25. #125
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Posts
    781
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Don Hays of respected institutional service Hays Advisory is a long-time superbull who has gotten over his periodic short-term hesitations, last seen earlier in the summer. See June 18 column
    On the face of it, Hays is now as bullish as ever. Earliest this week, his e-service proclaimed "Welcome to the Last Half of this Bull Market." He noted, "The very spirited entrance of this bull market into the last half of its move, that will produce accelerating gains in these next 18-20 months."
    For the first time that I recall, however, Hays has begun to suggest that the bull won't be around forever. It appears as throwaway lines "Nobody today is looking at March or April 2009, when our guesstimate is that this bullish stock market might be ready for a meaningful correction (i.e. cyclical bear market.)"
    Meanwhile, an issue under the byline of Keith, Hays' son, succinctly summarizes the Hays Grand Strategy. Inflation, in Hays' view, is currently held down by five factors:

    * "1. Demographics: An aging world implies lower interest rates and deflationary risks rather than inflation. You have to look no further than Japan as evidence.
    * 2. Fed Obsessed with Inflation: Lived through previous inflation era and is obsessed with it.
    * 3. Technology and the Internet: Internet alone has drastically reduced the cost of information, lowering the cost and improving the productivity of business decisions (Example: airline ticket low price search vs. 10 years ago).
    * 4. Fiscal Policy Competition: U.S. pricing must compete with pricing of every free trade country & vice versa, keeping prices low.
    * 5. Free Trade and Globalization (Glut of Labor): Labor makes up 65-70% of the final cost of goods and services. With a global glut of labor, workers lose their pricing power, putting another lid on inflation."

    Or, in another Hays summary:
    "The Technology Revolution
    produces
    A Massive New Flat World
    which ignites
    A Spread of Democracy
    which unleashes
    A Huge Sponge of New Consumption,
    which launches
    The Greatest Economic Boom in the History of the World
    which results in
    Huge Stock Market Potential"
    I don't immediately see why this happy situation would end as early as 2009.
    But, meanwhile, here's Hays' recommended asset allocation:

    * Long-term growth: 100% in stocks.
    * Moderate growth: 85% in stocks, 15% in bonds.
    * Conservative growth: 65% in stocks, 35% in bonds
    End of Story

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...774BB17054A%7D
    a "huge sponge of new consumption" doesn't automatically imply low inflation. in fact the more demand for the physical commodities and energy required to produce products for hays's sponge to soak up, the higher the cost of those commodities and energy. hence inflation in the metal, food, fiber and energy markets.
    what's so funny about peace, love, and understanding?

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