Is the stock market going to tank?

**Cono Este** · 05-14-2021, 07:17 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Why does COIN have any advantage over other banks as a custodial if digital currency is legit? I can see them being the premier broker but their valuation indicates so much more. Global regulation will also put brakes on their growth.

I have a coin acct. blows my mind there is no bid or offer. Jesus! If I could have done the same back in the day.

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**4matic** · 05-14-2021, 08:15 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I have a coin acct. blows my mind there is no bid or offer. Jesus! If I could have done the same back in the day.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Built in midpoint?

**LeeLau** · 05-14-2021, 08:17 PM

Originally Posted by BobMc

That Luckin coffee thing didn’t work out so well, after watching that I decided no Chinese stonks. Although, I did recently buy a Taiwanese company’s stock.

Nice to have a decent day today after getting shellacked all week, my account was up 3.8%. I love midstream distributions week, picked up 2.87 shares of EDP, 1.52 shares of DCP, and 3.09 shares of MMP all from distribution reinvestment this week. That pushed me to now over $200/month in dividends/distributions. My goal is to have that at $2000/month within 10 years. Shit starts compounding faster as those numbers grow.

I love my dividends. Addictive isn't it? Canucks can get 70k pa dividends tax free! When I heard about that little gift it became my goal to set that up myself and my wife.

And you're totally correct about the power of compounding. 8% per year doubles every 10 years. 14.5% per year doubles every 5.

**4matic** · 05-15-2021, 11:31 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I have a coin acct. blows my mind there is no bid or offer. Jesus! If I could have done the same back in the day.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

Was reading Peter Brandt feed and he’s ripping Coinbase for not having a two sided market and taking the other side of stop orders at below the low of the day prices.

**4matic** · 05-17-2021, 02:20 PM

COIN raising more money is because none of the share sales went to fund the company. The direct listing was just a way for insiders to liquidate personal stakes.

**californiagrown** · 05-17-2021, 03:11 PM

Originally Posted by BobMc

That Luckin coffee thing didn’t work out so well, after watching that I decided no Chinese stonks. Although, I did recently buy a Taiwanese company’s stock.

Nice to have a decent day today after getting shellacked all week, my account was up 3.8%. I love midstream distributions week, picked up 2.87 shares of EPD, 1.52 shares of DCP, and 3.09 shares of MMP all from distribution reinvestment this week. That pushed me to now over $200/month in dividends/distributions. My goal is to have that at $2000/month within 10 years. Shit starts compounding faster as those numbers grow.

Haha yeah, i lost a couple hundred dollars on LK fully knowing it was gambled money last year. I would not want to be investing in BABA as a gamble though (im gambling on Cobalt mining haha)- to me they are the flagship Chinese company to the rest of the world so i dont see the CCP doing something to ruin their standing in the worldwide business community. Chinese culture big into saving face and all. I could totally be wrong though. Tough call as i just see SOOO much upside and they have the perfect model to follow in Amazon.

Its seems like it was an especially good year to get into dividend investing. If you started putting money in over the summer, dividend stocks have acted like growth stocks (except T) so you got the double whammy of growth plus dividends. Great work!

**4matic** · 05-17-2021, 03:28 PM

Originally Posted by californiagrown

Haha yeah, i lost a couple hundred dollars on LK fully knowing it was gambled money last year. I would not want to be investing in BABA as a gamble though (im gambling on Cobalt mining haha)- to me they are the flagship Chinese company to the rest of the world so i dont see the CCP doing something to ruin their standing in the worldwide business community. Chinese culture big into saving face and all. I could totally be wrong though. Tough call as i just see SOOO much upside and they have the perfect model to follow in Amazon.

Its seems like it was an especially good year to get into dividend investing. If you started putting money in over the summer, dividend stocks have acted like growth stocks (except T) so you got the double whammy of growth plus dividends. Great work!

Even after today total return for T is around 15% since last summer.

**MultiVerse** · 05-17-2021, 03:37 PM

FWIW, while the CCP cares about China's standing on the world stage, like any bureaucracy what matters most is self preservation. China's tech conglomerates are huge. Alibaba, for example, is more than just e-commerce. They also own TV and online entertainment companies, film studios, TV and print news media, department stores, and the largest payment processor in China.

The CCP will never allow another entity to rival its power. The media companies are a particular concern. So the BABA bet is not just on continued growth but that it can continue to grow in spite of its also capable large rivals (PDD, JD, etc.,) and in spite of the Chinese government.

**4matic** · 05-17-2021, 03:47 PM

Chinese regulators actually stepping up to throttle a tech giant threatening competition. You’ll never see that in USA. Wall Street always wins:

Rui Ma agrees, and says the rules will help to foster more innovation for smaller companies in China who up till now have been squeezed out by the big players.

"Local venture capitalists I've spoken to are generally supportive of these regulations," she says. "They think there's more opportunities to find younger, newer companies that never stood a chance before."

**pureantigravity** · 05-17-2021, 04:06 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

I have a coin acct. blows my mind there is no bid or offer. Jesus! If I could have done the same back in the day.

Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

CoinbasePro

**pureantigravity** · 05-17-2021, 04:15 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

COIN raising more money is because none of the share sales went to fund the company. The direct listing was just a way for insiders to liquidate personal stakes.

Coinbase makes a lot off trades. 1% off the value of every sell. And the sell price is worse than other exchanges. They sell a good number of alts. I expect their next earnings will impress. The risk is high with this one. Vulnerable on many fronts. If crypto enters a long decline like 2018-2020 then the price will plummet. It will happen eventually. I wonder how many of the alts they bought in IPOs and now sell at full value profit. Probably quite a lot. Most crypto exchanges are loaded to the tits with stakes in various altcoins. It isn't an exchange, they fill shopping bags with house tokens. The PayPal integration is a winner. They are now exposing themselves and 'pro' clients to Tether (<3% cash backed). That wasn't announced with the debut but just recently. Tomorrow is Tether's first report due to the NYAG. We know what it says. We know the NYAG won't accept it. What happens is anyone's guess. In 2 years, COIN will be sitting at $48 or at $800.

**MultiVerse** · 05-17-2021, 04:26 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Chinese regulators actually stepping up to throttle a tech giant threatening competition. You’ll never see that in USA. Wall Street always wins:

Rui Ma agrees, and says the rules will help to foster more innovation for smaller companies in China who up till now have been squeezed out by the big players.

"Local venture capitalists I've spoken to are generally supportive of these regulations," she says. "They think there's more opportunities to find younger, newer companies that never stood a chance before."

Your article provides a nice summary of the situation: 34 companies, the who's who of China's tech world, were summoned by officials and warned: let Alibaba be a lesson to you.

**4matic** · 05-17-2021, 04:27 PM

I worked for ICE when they founded BAKKT, now part of spac VHI. You’d think with their exchange experience it would have gone somewhere but it’s been a flop. If there was broad institutional adaptations it would do better since BNY is the custodial partner.

ICE has ironclad ethics rules so it could be why BAKKT hasn’t thrived

**4matic** · 05-17-2021, 04:40 PM

Originally Posted by MultiVerse

Your article provides a nice summary of the situation: 34 companies, the who's who of China's tech world, were summoned by officials and warned: let Alibaba be a lesson to you.

USA has allowed big tech to do whatever it wants. UBER, LYFT, and ABNB for example; Operate illegally and get too big to regulate. AMZN and EBAY went years without paying state and local taxes. Good and bad to both

**4matic** · 05-17-2021, 04:45 PM

I’m still expecting a rate spike. Not sure what the trigger will be but the 10y is creeping back to the previous high and TLT is looking like a breakdown.

**californiagrown** · 05-18-2021, 09:01 AM

fuck it, im buying a chunk of BABA. I sold some of my KMI off and used my remaining cash reserves to buy the shares.

Also, amazingly the PSLV i bought back in February (and have taken a bath on since) as part of the ill conceived silver squeeze is nearly back up to its highs and im nearly back to even haha. I really should sell that off, but maybe this time its for real! (says the insane person). Im way overweight on silver as SLV is my second largest holding. YOLO?

**jono** · 05-18-2021, 09:08 AM

Is BABA the emperor's favorite concubine?

**shera** · 05-24-2021, 10:42 AM

GME in an uptrend on the daily.

**dan_pdx** · 05-24-2021, 10:53 AM

I've been holding a little bit of BABA since shortly after the IPO; it's done about 15% CAGR over those 6-ish years, more like 22% at the October peak. Past results are no guarantee, blah blah, but you could do worse. I mean, you could buy/sell GME options and do a whole lot better too, but as a set and forget stock, it hasn't been bad for me.

**shera** · 05-25-2021, 08:26 AM

Would you just look at GME, breaking out right now. Maybe you clever people want to put on your shorts, hahhahahahahaha!

**schuss** · 05-25-2021, 09:31 AM

BABA will continue to grow, but it will have a ceiling, as others noted. It's basically China's Amazon in terms of marketplace+Cloud services provider. Their cloud is also pretty decent from what people in the space say, so it will continue to grow as China-adjacent markets continue to digitize and grow. While other cloud providers want into China, any smart one won't make the faustian deal to let CCP into their technical infrastructure as it will compromise any deal they do with the west (as well as potentially shut off US Fed stuff). I think only Oracle would be desperate enough for that. I need to do some work on our general savings+emergency fund soon - any good largely safe vehicles for parking liquid cash? I have way too much other shit going on right now to do lots of meaningful research.
GME is continually hilarious as a pure finance vehicle. There's nothing in the backend of that company that's viable long term unless they pivot hard into vintage gaming. Native storefronts (Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft) have them beat on consoles, with Epic and Steam owning the PC market - especially with everything being digital purchases these days. In the meantime though, will be a fun ride and they may be able to grab enough mindshare to carve out a niche in something.

**CovertM** · 05-25-2021, 03:23 PM

Originally Posted by schuss

BABA will continue to grow, but it will have a ceiling, as others noted. It's basically China's Amazon in terms of marketplace+Cloud services provider. Their cloud is also pretty decent from what people in the space say, so it will continue to grow as China-adjacent markets continue to digitize and grow. While other cloud providers want into China, any smart one won't make the faustian deal to let CCP into their technical infrastructure as it will compromise any deal they do with the west (as well as potentially shut off US Fed stuff). I think only Oracle would be desperate enough for that. I need to do some work on our general savings+emergency fund soon - any good largely safe vehicles for parking liquid cash? I have way too much other shit going on right now to do lots of meaningful research.
GME is continually hilarious as a pure finance vehicle. There's nothing in the backend of that company that's viable long term unless they pivot hard into vintage gaming. Native storefronts (Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft) have them beat on consoles, with Epic and Steam owning the PC market - especially with everything being digital purchases these days. In the meantime though, will be a fun ride and they may be able to grab enough mindshare to carve out a niche in something.

Check Bankrate for online MM rates or Online Savings rates, they tend to be a little better. But last I checked it was still around 50bps, dismal.

The institutional ($100k min.) MM fund I use through Fidelity for clients is still 1bps, pathetic. Low rate environment.

**CovertM** · 05-25-2021, 03:30 PM

Originally Posted by shera

Would you just look at GME, breaking out right now. Maybe you clever people want to put on your shorts, hahhahahahahaha!

SQUEEEEEEEZZZZZZEEE to $1,000

Hodler here (Baby shares at this point)

Got handed some hefty bags last friday at May monthly expiration. More MARA, RIOT, MVIS, and TMDX.

Still have a large position in IPOE and it's on a steady uptrend leading to meeting on 27th and full merger by 6/1. Sold a bunch of 6/18 $25 CSP last week when it was trading at $16, they were paying 10 per contract and I figure it will pop at some point at/after merger. Already sitting at 30% profit.

Will probably dump half of the position at merger on a big jump and keep the rest for longterm to see how SoFi does.

Still playing both sides of MARA and RIOT while Crypto has a tantrum. Sold calls for both yesterday on the jump after Daddy Musk tweeted about his tribunal.

**LeeLau** · 05-25-2021, 04:05 PM

Originally Posted by schuss

GME is continually hilarious as a pure finance vehicle. There's nothing in the backend of that company that's viable long term unless they pivot hard into vintage gaming. Native storefronts (Sony/Nintendo/Microsoft) have them beat on consoles, with Epic and Steam owning the PC market - especially with everything being digital purchases these days. In the meantime though, will be a fun ride and they may be able to grab enough mindshare to carve out a niche in something.

That's the blindside of the Dodd Graham crowd and why I ignore farting noises like Benny Profane. Not only is GME a cult, it's the memelord of cults. For better or worse (better for me as a long) it's attracted the Hodler's, it's still the darling of WSB, it's got actual substance and it's a cult.

Now you can attack it all you want with PS, PE, PEG ratios and you'd be right if you were writing Level 2 CFA. But the market has looked at it now since January and is telling you that you are wrong. And perhaps you (not you Schuss, but the apocryphal Boglehead buy VTSAX and chill utterly mediocre crowd) are content to sit back and whale on with Roubinian Dr. Doom bleating of hands. We'll agree to disagree. That makes a market. But I'm always astounded at the inability of people to look at their investment theses; recognize their blind spots and learn from that.

CovertM - same here. RIOT is trading sideways and I am getting 8% yield PER WEEK now.

Shera - I waited for ETH tanking and have bought into ETHH (the Canadian Etf) at ETH levels of approx 2200. The ETF may begin staking and is planning on paying a 8% to 10% dividend. That would be a bonus. Hopefully the US brings in crypto ETFs.

Shorted UONE on last weeks' spike. Borrows were small and I am leary of June 19th when black-owned businesses mooned last year so covered the short for small gains.

Added some NKLA short. Still ever so slightly underwater on my position (started it at 11 before the unlock)

**schuss** · 05-25-2021, 04:48 PM

Oh yeah, I think GME is fantastic as there's always room for games in financial markets, it's just bogleheads etc. Didn't recognize that was how hedges could make fast money. I think there will continue to be memelord stocks and all sorts of stuff, but there always were (see Apple reality distortion field in the Jobs days, Enron mania and GE under Welch). It's just with many more players, fundamentals are less important than mindshare in many cases. The market hasn't been "rational" basically ever. As others have pointed out, momentum and options have always existed, it just wasn't accessible to retail - now it is (to an extent).