Is the stock market going to tank?

[Tips^Up]

You guys are entertaining to watch, but I'd like to put out the simple rules for most people:
1) use all your available tax advantages (like 401, 457, HSA, Roth IRA, etc.),
2) low cost index funds (personally, my after-tax money goes 65/30/5% into VTSAX, VTIAX, VBTLX)
3) don't ever sell until you're filthy.

This thread was started in May 2007, near the peak, before one of the largest stock market crashes ever. DJIA was at 13,630. Right now, it's 29,158. In between, it's been up, it's been down. Low point was 6594 3/5/09. If you would have ignored the advice from this thread, and continued to buy and hold, you'd be price shopping where you'll be heli-skiing this season.

[Kinnikinnick]

You guys are entertaining to watch, but I'd like to put out the simple rules for most people:
1) use all your available tax advantages (like 401, 457, HSA, Roth IRA, etc.),
2) low cost index funds (personally, my after-tax money goes 65/30/5% into VTSAX, VTIAX, VBTLX)
3) don't ever sell until you're filthy.

This thread was started in May 2007, near the peak, before one of the largest stock market crashes ever. DJIA was at 13,630. Right now, it's 29,158. In between, it's been up, it's been down. Low point was 6594 3/5/09. If you would have ignored the advice from this thread, and continued to buy and hold, you'd be price shopping where you'll be heli-skiing this season.

Thats not true. I have an account thats sat there in stocks since 1999 or so. Has made a decent return but no where near justifying heli skiing.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[Tips^Up]

Thats not true. I have an account thats sat there in stocks since 1999 or so. Has made a decent return but no where near justifying heli skiing.
TGR Forums

I didn't have a stable job with benefits until about 10 years ago. I knew squat about personal finance until about the past 5 years. Even so...thinking about heli-skiing this spring.

1999 DJIA average = 10,481. Every dollar you put in then would be worth about 3x now. If you kept adding to it since then, you're probably doing OK with it (unless you ignored #2, LOW cost funds; expense ratios eat up gains). It'll be a shoestring budget, prioritizing skiing over fondue, but it'll be a bucket lister! Don't know if the border will open, so probably US-based. Hoping to do a week for about $5k but need to do more research. Let me know if you wanna go.

[rod9301]

You guys are entertaining to watch, but I'd like to put out the simple rules for most people:
1) use all your available tax advantages (like 401, 457, HSA, Roth IRA, etc.),
2) low cost index funds (personally, my after-tax money goes 65/30/5% into VTSAX, VTIAX, VBTLX)
3) don't ever sell until you're filthy.

This thread was started in May 2007, near the peak, before one of the largest stock market crashes ever. DJIA was at 13,630. Right now, it's 29,158. In between, it's been up, it's been down. Low point was 6594 3/5/09. If you would have ignored the advice from this thread, and continued to buy and hold, you'd be price shopping where you'll be heli-skiing this season.

So what's that, 5 percent a year?

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[rod9301]

I didn't have a stable job with benefits until about 10 years ago. I knew squat about personal finance until about the past 5 years. Even so...thinking about heli-skiing this spring.

1999 DJIA average = 10,481. Every dollar you put in then would be worth about 3x now. If you kept adding to it since then, you're probably doing OK with it (unless you ignored #2, LOW cost funds; expense ratios eat up gains). It'll be a shoestring budget, prioritizing skiing over fondue, but it'll be a bucket lister! Don't know if the border will open, so probably US-based. Hoping to do a week for about $5k but need to do more research. Let me know if you wanna go.

Dude, that's 21 years. Do the math it's a pretty lousy return.

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[rod9301]

I didn't have a stable job with benefits until about 10 years ago. I knew squat about personal finance until about the past 5 years. Even so...thinking about heli-skiing this spring.

1999 DJIA average = 10,481. Every dollar you put in then would be worth about 3x now. If you kept adding to it since then, you're probably doing OK with it (unless you ignored #2, LOW cost funds; expense ratios eat up gains). It'll be a shoestring budget, prioritizing skiing over fondue, but it'll be a bucket lister! Don't know if the border will open, so probably US-based. Hoping to do a week for about $5k but need to do more research. Let me know if you wanna go.

So that's what, 5 percent a year?

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

[Toadman]

You guys are entertaining to watch, but I'd like to put out the simple rules for most people:
1) use all your available tax advantages (like 401, 457, HSA, Roth IRA, etc.),
2) low cost index funds (personally, my after-tax money goes 65/30/5% into VTSAX, VTIAX, VBTLX)
3) don't ever sell until you're filthy.

This thread was started in May 2007, near the peak, before one of the largest stock market crashes ever. DJIA was at 13,630. Right now, it's 29,158. In between, it's been up, it's been down. Low point was 6594 3/5/09. If you would have ignored the advice from this thread, and continued to buy and hold, you'd be price shopping where you'll be heli-skiing this season.

If only I had access to some major tax loopholes where I only paid about $750 in taxes, then, yes, I would be heli-skiing this winter.

[LeeLau]

So what's that, 5 percent a year?

Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

6.1 but who's counting

[4matic]

Risk parity is going to be a train wreck again. There’a way too much index correlation.

[californiagrown]

Woke up this morning to red across the major indexes, but my account was up another 4%. So, i yanked a large chunk of money out. There were a number of dividend plays that i cashed out as well because the announced +5% dividend from a week ago was now like <2% with the new higher price. Feels good to be up about 15% after briefly touching 0% late last week.

Here in WA our governor is meeting with state health officials and holding a press conference today about the sharp rise in CV cases. I think the reimplementation of restrictions is imminent here (highly blue WFH state), and I think that all this excitement about the economy opening back up is way too premature. All the stocks i sold today are stocks i like long term, so i kept a single share to easily keep an eye on their prices... but i doubt im going to buy back in until late december at the earliest so i can see how the holidays play out with CV and possible restrictions. Stupid, dumb, or just conservative? IDK. just kind of winging it. If i had balls id be shorting the shit out of BA right now.

[Toadman]

Risk parity is going to be a train wreck again. There’a way too much index correlation.

I hate it when THAT happens!

[LeeLau]

There's still a chance Trump will nuke Seattle, Portland or some other place that annoys him but that probability is diminishing hence volatility is reduced.

Cautious congrats to other long suffering CCL bagholders like Bob and myself


Shorted some ACB on morning pump to mid 13s. Short term play for me

Covered ACB on its self destruction. They imploded on news if yet another ATM stock offering which annoyingly CCL will also do.

Added WKHS short (hopefully) by selling slightly ootm calls. Did the same for NKLA

[Toadman]

NKLA looks like a dumpster fire. With the SEC crawling up their piehole, that can't be fun.

[stalefish3169]

stonks down, BTC up

16k breached


Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[LeeLau]

stonks down, BTC up

16k breached

Remarkable how BTC and GLD have lost their correlation. And remarkable how BTC has now become a legitimate alternative. Tip of the hat to you stalefish for holding through thick or thin

Added a WKHS short call.

[stalefish3169]

Yeah, buddy. Cheers to you as well. May your P always be greater than your L.

The time when the average person will be able to afford a whole Bitcoin is rapidly nearing its end.

Sent from my Pixel 4 XL using Tapatalk

[LeeLau]

WKHS tanked. I wanted to stay short longer but couldn't look a -15% move gift horse in the mouth.

NIO tanked too as I started it short. Covered the small position.

VIX itself has been volatile af. Up 15% yday; down 10% today. Took partial profits on VIX puts but kept majority of position. Already took UVXY short profits

Added more NKLA short.

[nickwm21]

With the forthcoming second national toilet paper buyout on the horizon. What’s the buy? PG?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LeeLau]

With the forthcoming second national toilet paper buyout on the horizon. What’s the buy? PG?

Dynafits

[BobMc]

I came by an extra $50, put it into Hydrogen today, picked up a share of BE and a share of PLUG and put the leftover cash into FCEL. Of course PLUG went down a buck from where I bought it, but today overall was a pretty good day. I hope WTI crude stays above $40 now.

[Kevo]

I feel like the chances of a major political fuck up in the US is not priced into the market.

If we don't have a smooth transition of power (Trump refuses to leave office after losing, etc) the US dollar and US equities and government backed bonds are going to go to shit.

[dan_pdx]

I feel like the chances of a major political fuck up in the US is not priced into the market.

If we don't have a smooth transition of power (Trump refuses to leave office after losing, etc) the US dollar and US equities and government backed bonds are going to go to shit.

I'd argue it is priced in and the market has decided it's a tempest in a teacup. If there is a market-tanking kerfuffle, it would be a chance to buy cheap as far as I'm concerned.

[gravitylover]

Yeah, this might be a good time to round up a few extra $$ in case the shit hits the fan so you can jump in.

[BobMc]

PLUG set a high today, then announced 750mill offering of common stock. Glad I bought more FCEL than PLUG, FCEL up 30% today. Finally in the green on MRO, getting close on XOM and CLB. If crude stays as high as it is I should be in the green on them soon.

[Toadman]

Let the good times roll. COVID miracle is just around the corner. Someone said DOW 30K by Thanksgiving. Looks like it will be here tomorrow.