Is the stock market going to tank?

[wooley12]

Sounds like the Kodak management I knew. Arrogant and sleazy.

[ICantLogIn]

But, why are they buying cars? Just because?

0% interest is why I did it.

[jono]

That should make Benny happy. Too early for popcorn, damn.

[jono]

Well, Navarro is definitely right about not being able to fix stupid. Many have tried, none have succeeded.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/cant-fix-...150028629.html

“Based on what I’m seeing, what happened at Kodak was probably the dumbest decisions made by executives in corporate history,” Navarro said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“You can’t fix stupid,” Navarro added. “You can’t even anticipate that degree of stupidity.”

If only there had been a charity they could donate to that would offer them the instant protection of the executive branch of the federal government. Pardons and such.

[Stu Gotz]

August is on track to be the third month of the past four where insider selling exceeded $15 billion according to TrimTabs. Insider selling is at a pace unseen since 2006.

Good to be at the top. Not so much at the bottom.

[Mazderati]

Yeah, that was beyond stupid. I don’t know how many insider trading classes I’ve had to take over the years - 10 at least. And I’m just a lowly peon. These guys were executives. Did they think they would not get caught? The donation to a tax free “congregation” was especially bright. Not only are you trying to cash out, but you are trying to avoid taxes too (and generate a tax deduction on top of that)?

"On the last day of class, I ask my students ... to find cogent answers to three questions: First, how can I be sure that I'll be happy in my career? Second, how can I be sure that my relationships with my spouse and my family become an enduring source of happiness? Third, how can I be sure I'll stay out of jail?"

- Clayton Christensen, HBS Big Brain

[dunfree]

Yeah, that was beyond stupid. I don’t know how many insider trading classes I’ve had to take over the years - 10 at least. And I’m just a lowly peon. These guys were executives. Did they think they would not get caught? The donation to a tax free “congregation” was especially bright. Not only are you trying to cash out, but you are trying to avoid taxes too (and generate a tax deduction on top of that)?

Yeah those boys are fucked. Any comments I had about Kodak execs earlier assumed they were playing by the rules and the grants were set up well in advance of the loan announcement. This just appears to be blatant insider trading. These guys are looking at jail time.

playing by the rules? It’s 2020. There are no rules. #ddtg knows pump and dump is fine.

[Name Redacted]

Yeah, Kodak guys will get busted and they'll make an example of them to make it look like someone is doing their job. Meanwhile thousands of others will get away with it, make millions, and sleep well at night knowing that in this administration, the likelihood of getting busted for white collar crimes is pretty low. And if you get busted, just use some of those millions you just made to hire a team of lawyers to get you off. While you are at it, say something nice about 45 on fox news and maybe he'll pardon you.

Read somewhere the other day that insider trading arrests have been at record lows compared to previous years. Hmm, I guess nobody is cheating anymore, they must have all decided to be good little boys and girls huh?

[Toadman]

If only there had been a charity they could donate to that would offer them the instant protection of the executive branch of the federal government. Pardons and such.

It's known as the 2020 Donald J Trump re-election fund. It might not be too late to donate to it. Probably a good idea to double down and go on Fox and mention how awesome Trump is, and then pay a few surrogate talking heads to spew some more smoke up Trump's piehole just to be sure.

[Joey Joe Joe Junior Shabadoo]

Anecdotal, but I see lots and lots of new cars, or "new" used cars with temp plates around here. It's like there's no recession or COVID.

Heard a guy on NPR talking about real estate who said this phenomenon marked the official split into two Americas. One half has the money to buy new cars, work remotely, purchase new homes as they flee cities and pay for tutors to help home-school their kids, all in the midst of a pandemic; the other is steal dealing with unemployment, evictions and trying to homeschool kids with limited or no internet/technology resources.

[LeeLau]

Still short KODK. Borrow rate via IB has dropped dramatically while shares available to short has increased.

Reshorted IGC on its bounce to low 2s.

Reshorted MARA at 4s.

All had options to hedge

[Dantheman]

Read somewhere the other day that insider trading arrests have been at record lows compared to previous years. Hmm, I guess nobody is cheating anymore, they must have all decided to be good little boys and girls huh?

Correct, fewest SEC prosecutions since the Reagan administration: https://www.npr.org/2020/08/14/90186...oint-in-decade

With the volatile market COVID has created it's a free-for-all out there.

[LeeLau]

Well that was nervewrackibg

Unwound long end of bear spread of KODK at 12 and watched it go to 14. That was spooky.. Seems over now. Reestablished spread

[Toadman]

Well that was nervewrackibg

Unwound long end of bear spread of KODK at 12 and watched it go to 14. That was spooky.. Seems over now. Reestablished spread

KODK seems to be the perfect pump and dump, then pump and dump, and then repeat.

[LeeLau]

KODK seems to be the perfect pump and dump, then pump and dump, and then repeat.

Remarkable volatility.

[pureantigravity]

It is kinda hilarious. I saw lee's post this morning and said to myself "that thing is going to $14 soon just to show who's boss".
To my clairvoyant surprise ...
Every pump and dump stock scheme these days is only as good as their ability to thwart the people
that think they know how to profit off pump n dumps.
Dog shit squared.

[LeeLau]

Unwound half of KODK short calls

Took in rest of MARA and IGC call spread and let the long end of the spread expire naturally

[pureantigravity]

I just came here to say I love you all!!
In other news, half burnt pizza is better than really under-cooked pizza.
A good oven is better than a good dough.
Have a great weekend all!

[byates1]

west end

[MontuckyFried]

[liv2ski]

To the OP's originally question, yes it will. The question is when. I hope all of you guys are really fuckin smart, because I see this eventually ending as a disaster. And now this from our sponsor at B of A currency strategist Athansios Vamvakidis:

Recurring bubbles in a lowflation scenario

The obvious pushback is that inflation has been the dog that has not barked in recent decades. It is certainly the least of our concerns today, with output well below potential and our forecasts for a very weak recovery. Markets are also pricing low inflation and low interest rates for the foreseeable future.

However, in a lowflation scenario, debt is likely to remain high in most countries. To reduce debt to pre-Covid levels, and even more to pre-global financial crisis levels, would require massive fiscal austerity and private sector deleveraging. As long as inflation remains low and central banks keep policy rates at zero, there is no reason for such pain.

However, this is a scenario of recurring bubbles. The real economy is weak, but asset prices are strong because of loose macro policy support-more decoupling between Wall Street and main street. This will continue until unexpected shocks take place, asset price bubbles burst, which then needs even looser macro policies to avoid an even weaker real economy, leading to new asset price bubbles. The result is a vicious cycle spiralling to even higher debt levels, lower interest rates and larger central bank balance sheets, without inflation, but with an even weaker real economy and even worse asset price bubbles.

Most likely, this spiral started with low inflation in the 1990s, because of structural forces such as globalization and IT, and the widespread adoption of inflation targeting in the years that followed. Macro policies took advantage of low inflation to loosen too much, and one thing led to another, with a crisis every few years also keeping inflation low.

The end game is not clear, but unlikely to be smooth

Most likely, major central banks and most governments are aware of these risks, but they are stuck. Efforts to tighten in the past, even in small steps, led to sharp market adjustments. We can mention many examples, from the Fed's QE taper tantrum and its sharp U-turn last year cutting rates and expanding its balance sheet despite unemployment being well below the natural rate, to the ECB being stuck with negative rates well after the crisis and despite serious side effects and reintroducing QE last year at effectively full employment. Government debt is already too high in most cases, particularly after the pandemic, to reduce it with fiscal consolidation in the years ahead, without hurting the already weak economy.

We see no easy way out. Again, we wouldn't start from here. This is not a good place to be in for the global economy and it is getting worse with every shock, despite the market euphoria in the meantime. An already bad situation before the pandemic has now become worse. We are not sure how and when we will see the end-game, but in our view this is not a sustainable situation in the long term.

[Choss Jonger, Sr.]

But, why are they buying cars? Just because?

Because having a more reliable vehicle will be more valuable than some evaporated funds when the big one comes.

Not that I have a bleak outlook or anything.

[byates1]

it does feel like the dominoes have not even begun to fall. i can easily see a 60% reduction in the major index's in the next 6/12 months. that said, i'm hopeful that won't happen.

there is nothing the entire world wants more that getting back to being the world. i don't see covid killing more. i think a year from now it will be better.

[LeeLau]

KODK calls shorted expired worthless. Ditto IGC and MARA.

Covered NAK short

Did another vertical call spread on WKHS. Short 18er calls. Long 20ers. All 0828 expirys

Put on a bit more USD/CHF short

[Mazderati]

Well, the good new is XOM is no longer a dog of the dow.