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  1. #12001
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    5,270
    Quote Originally Posted by heckacali View Post
    Self quoting looking back to lament how bad my decision was on 3/18.
    I was heavy on TSLA and was "smart" enough to dump it within 2 days of the absolute low ($380ish IIRC) between the previous 3x high weeks earlier (just under $1000) and the current 4x high ($1400 and climbing)
    FML
    Don't sweat it... you'll look smard when it goes back into the shitter.

  2. #12002
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Squaw valley
    Posts
    2,973
    Quote Originally Posted by skaredshtles View Post
    Don't sweat it... you'll look smard when it goes back into the shitter.
    Only if you keep buying puts as it goes up.

    Sent from my Redmi Note 8 Pro using Tapatalk

  3. #12003
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,935
    Short WKHS short term. Long WKHS long term. Positioned via puts calls spread

    Bought WORK long dated calls

  4. #12004
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,935
    Shorted FCEL due to its pump on the latest EV stock craze even though it's not remotely anything to do with EV's other than having a cool ticker symbol. Covered and may re-short again as it may have RH millennial buyer legs

    Also shorted China EV stock NIO because it's a RH favourite. Interesting it did a stock raise at 5.95 a few weeks ago. Longs appear to be selling covered calls (source CBOE block trades) to monetize their share price rise. Good for them! Covered already. Would like to reshort another pump

    Another imbalance appears to be in the options markets currently with writers of short-dated options overpaying for theta. Conversely long-dated deep in the money options are paying close to zero for time. This is based on a random sampling of the more volatile stocks. Perhaps small accounts trying to use options for leverage without having sufficient collateral to risk much? No idea how long this will last as I'm sure others have noticed it.

  5. #12005
    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Location
    Seattle
    Posts
    221
    NYT article on Robinhood:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/t...y-trading.html

    "For each share of stock traded, Robinhood made four to 15 times more than Schwab in the most recent quarter, according to the filings. In total, Robinhood got $18,955 from the trading firms for every dollar in the average customer account, while Schwab made $195, the Alphacution analysis shows. Industry experts said this was most likely because the trading firms believed they could score the easiest profits from Robinhood customers."
    90% of skiing is just looking cool

  6. #12006
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,935
    Quote Originally Posted by f=ma View Post
    NYT article on Robinhood:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/08/t...y-trading.html

    "For each share of stock traded, Robinhood made four to 15 times more than Schwab in the most recent quarter, according to the filings. In total, Robinhood got $18,955 from the trading firms for every dollar in the average customer account, while Schwab made $195, the Alphacution analysis shows. Industry experts said this was most likely because the trading firms believed they could score the easiest profits from Robinhood customers."
    So entertaining. Those are the counterparties

  7. #12007
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,935
    CMCM which I bought a month ago paid out its $1.44 dividend which hit the account today for a nice return

    Bought shares of KCAC - a special acquisition corp with a NAV of $ 10. It's in the running to buy Fisker; an EV play

    Reshorted NIO at the high 15s. Looking to cover in low 14s

  8. #12008
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Juneau
    Posts
    869
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Reshorted NIO at the high 15s. Looking to cover in low 14s
    That seems highly risky to me because (a) NIO is like the mediocre restaurant adjacent to the very popular one - it does well from overflow traffic; and (b) very little makes sense at the moment - TSLA, an EV company with no profit and with numerous, legit competitors from the big players to tiny ones like Rivian is now the 10th most valuable publicly traded company, and then of course there is the nonsensical story of HZ. And not to mention while the U.S. is crushing it when it comes to incompetently managing the pandemic, the stock market loves our incompetence. E.g., Pepsi lost $$$ on its bread and butter soda sales, but wait, because everyone is high, depressed, and stuck at home, it crushed it on snack sales. So, cha-ching, markets go up.

    Then again, nearly every short I've done in this volatile mkt I've regretted (though I'm still holding out hope on a couple).

    And, full disclosure - I bought NIO at $6 back in 2019, though I plan to sell at some point soon to earn a few $$$. When is always the question.

  9. #12009
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    Juneau
    Posts
    869
    And by the end of the day, that was a good call. I think, however, that that volatility is in line with my point.

  10. #12010
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    2,089
    So, what happened this afternoon? Did the market finally realize that Biden will actually be president?

    Brutal sell-off in the final hour. Be interesting to see where this goes tomorrow.

  11. #12011
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Nhampshire
    Posts
    5,847
    Quote Originally Posted by billyk View Post
    So, what happened this afternoon? Did the market finally realize that Biden will actually be president?

    Brutal sell-off in the final hour. Be interesting to see where this goes tomorrow.
    Wasn't it the news that we're running an 845 billion dollar deficit/month and CA is reclosing?

  12. #12012
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    2,089
    Quote Originally Posted by schuss View Post
    Wasn't it the news that we're running an 845 billion dollar deficit/month and CA is reclosing?
    Ah, yeah, thatís probably it, although the deficit shouldnít have been much of a surprise. But CA reclosing will have an impact.

  13. #12013
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,935
    Quote Originally Posted by dschane View Post
    And by the end of the day, that was a good call. I think, however, that that volatility is in line with my point.
    NIO will likely do a dilutive below market financing because they have to which will be a catalyst. RSI over 90 for 2 days. Shorted more at mid 16s. Covered in low 14s. Kept half the short on. I've set a stop loss.

    TSLA is a cult. I won't short cults. NIO is the vulnerable EV hype pump.

    I'm also short WKHS from low 17s and have sold puts to get long below 10. Also in the category of EV hype pumps but with a bit more meat than NIO

  14. #12014
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Loveland, Chair 9.
    Posts
    4,579
    Quote Originally Posted by billyk View Post
    So, what happened this afternoon? Did the market finally realize that Biden will actually be president?

    Brutal sell-off in the final hour. Be interesting to see where this goes tomorrow.
    no, fed chair spooked by talk about lessening some support as things open and the economy resumed and CA is considering reclosing restaurants and such.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  15. #12015
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,935
    Thots and Prayers. Please please for the love of God keep these people solvent and in the market!

    "I hope and pray for you to consider the shareholders,” wrote 50-year-old individual investor John Hardt in a letter dated May 25, one of dozens sent to the Corpus Christi, Texas-based court overseeing the case in recent months.

    Hardt is part of a growing number of retail traders -- many driven by lockdown boredom and free online trading -- who have piled into the stock market."

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amate...ity&soc_trk=fb

  16. #12016
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    42,262
    Quote Originally Posted by billyk View Post
    So, what happened this afternoon? Did the market finally realize that Biden will actually be president?

    Brutal sell-off in the final hour. Be interesting to see where this goes tomorrow.
    One wonders if China sanctioning two prominent Republican senators was a factor.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  17. #12017
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,649
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    NIO will likely do a dilutive below market financing because they have to which will be a catalyst. RSI over 90 for 2 days. Shorted more at mid 16s. Covered in low 14s. Kept half the short on. I've set a stop loss.

    TSLA is a cult. I won't short cults. NIO is the vulnerable EV hype pump.

    I'm also short WKHS from low 17s and have sold puts to get long below 10. Also in the category of EV hype pumps but with a bit more meat than NIO
    The whole TSLA thing just boggles the mind. It's a run away train, and just wonder if or when it comes off the tracks. Crazy that Musk is now worth more on paper than Buffet.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  18. #12018
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,935
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    The whole TSLA thing just boggles the mind. It's a run away train, and just wonder if or when it comes off the tracks. Crazy that Musk is now worth more on paper than Buffet.
    Buffet has given away approximately half his net worth.

    The entire EV sector pumped hard this past week along with TSLA. I'm long some SPACs that have appetite to take some EVs public. SPAQ (sold at 18), KCAC-U, GIx-U. Short NIO and WKHS (WKHS via put straddle and recently pure short as shares were borrowable). Missed NKLA, FCEL, PLUG, SOLO. The daytraders have been eminently predictable in this regard

  19. #12019
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
    Posts
    2,785
    Amazing 20% intraday move on a $300B company. Thatís rididiculous.

    Much more bonkers thing about this is that 25% of the float and 21% of the total shares outstanding of a megacap this size traded hands. Implies shareholder base turnover every 4-5 days.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  20. #12020
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    none
    Posts
    6,635
    Getting to frothy for me. I unloaded most of my AAPL today.

  21. #12021
    Join Date
    May 2016
    Posts
    2,089
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    One wonders if China sanctioning two prominent Republican senators was a factor.
    Yeah, that was a little weird. Guess Tedís not going to be able to vacation in Beijing anytime soon.

    Bidenís view of the stock market, in case anyone missed it:

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/markets...0-7-1029383265

  22. #12022
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    1,101
    For folks just learning, what are some good blogs/websites you all like? I'm looking for both SeekingAlpha type websites (NOT motleyfool), as well as any good blogs/vlogs that explain different smart investing strategies and cover different fundamentals.

    I am still trying to learn as much as i can to figure out what allocation ratio to different assets, markets, investment types fits me and my goals best. My learning style is much more geared towards bulletpoints, than it is towards reading long books with story-driven points (though i forced myself to read Graham's Intelligent Investor, and Bogle's Mutual Funds book and frankly got about 10 minutes of bullet points out of each of them). My goal isnt to beat the market, it is to become competent enough to develop my own long term financial plan and manage my own money (with a light hand) so i dont have to pay some guy a few hundo a year to blow smoke up my ass while he returns less than the market.

  23. #12023
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    1,101
    Quote Originally Posted by LeeLau View Post
    Thots and Prayers. Please please for the love of God keep these people solvent and in the market!

    "I hope and pray for you to consider the shareholders,” wrote 50-year-old individual investor John Hardt in a letter dated May 25, one of dozens sent to the Corpus Christi, Texas-based court overseeing the case in recent months.

    Hardt is part of a growing number of retail traders -- many driven by lockdown boredom and free online trading -- who have piled into the stock market."

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amate...ity&soc_trk=fb
    Hardt, when contacted by Bloomberg last week, said he had “zero knowledge of the bankruptcy process” before buying about 10,000 J.C. Penney shares. The Plano, Texas native said he’s already sold the position.

    The equivalent of a blind Huck-and-hope onto a steep convex rollover after an upside down storm cycle.

  24. #12024
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,594

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by californiagrown View Post
    For folks just learning, what are some good blogs/websites you all like? I'm looking for both SeekingAlpha type websites (NOT motleyfool), as well as any good blogs/vlogs that explain different smart investing strategies and cover different fundamentals.

    I am still trying to learn as much as i can to figure out what allocation ratio to different assets, markets, investment types fits me and my goals best. My learning style is much more geared towards bulletpoints, than it is towards reading long books with story-driven points (though i forced myself to read Graham's Intelligent Investor, and Bogle's Mutual Funds book and frankly got about 10 minutes of bullet points out of each of them). My goal isnt to beat the market, it is to become competent enough to develop my own long term financial plan and manage my own money (with a light hand) so i dont have to pay some guy a few hundo a year to blow smoke up my ass while he returns less than the market.
    Hedgeye.com is a transparent view of a macro hedge fund trading strategy. Follow their twitter for a while. Youíll learn a lot. They have a long only etf model. For macro chart trading try https://northmantrader.com. Itís long term charting.
    Last edited by 4matic; 07-14-2020 at 09:29 AM.

  25. #12025
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,594
    Dollar tanking is next bullish catalyst.

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