Is the stock market going to tank?

[sirbumpsalot]

~20 million fewer than February, highest unemployment in 50+ years. If you looked at the numbers you’d know that.

this shit is baffling, it’s like none of the things that mattered 4 months ago do now.

Dude....things have changed from 4 months ago. Things have changed from 2 weeks ago. People think differently than you and I alone. I would not go to disney anytime soon....but a lot of people will...doesn't matter if you or I think they are stupid or not. End of the day if the park fills up and people spend, Disney as a company will recover. Either you and I can fight it and claim its stupid and complain when the stock goes up or we can accept reality and position for it.

[sirbumpsalot]

I know.

Amazing how that horrible man has dominated the story. He's so talented at that. He just went on TV and probably convinced millions that everything is OK.

There's your flaw. You ASSUME everyone is listening to Trump. No one cares what Trump says. People don't put real money on what Trump says. People do their own due diligence....yes some people blindly throw money at things, but for the most part its not blind gambling.

[dunfree]

Dude....things have changed from 4 months ago. Things have changed from 2 weeks ago. People think differently than you and I alone. I would not go to disney anytime soon....but a lot of people will...doesn't matter if you or I think they are stupid or not. End of the day if the park fills up and people spend, Disney as a company will recover. Either you and I can fight it and claim its stupid and complain when the stock goes up or we can accept reality and position for it.

True about 2 weeks. The retailer (tgt) that had a store destroyed in riots on Wednesday week, closed 5 stores for 6 months, had multiple stores looted, and had to close >5% of its stores temporarily is up $5 since last Tuesday.

[Ted Striker]

Follow your convictions and buy SDS.

I have no convictions!

But if I'm going to short something, it's gotta be something. An inverse ETF would be betting against myself at the moment. And a retreat to cash is simpler.

[4matic]

True. The retailer (tgt) that had a store destroyed in riots on Wednesday week, closed 5 stores for 6 months, had multiple stores looted, and had to close >5% of its stores temporarily is up $5 since last Tuesday.

A lot of retail stores aren’t profitable. Easy to close the money losing ones with no bad publicity. A Lucky Store near me is closing.

[Toadman]

That made me laugh. Especially the politics part. There isn't a person who knows me IRL that would describe me as political in any way.

But this is the stock market thread. And if you think this market is rational, I've got a bridge for sale.

What's the ROI? Is this a toll bridge? I hear tolls are down right now, due to people not driving as much. Send pics, might be interested. I might have my bridge engineer guy take a look at it.

[Ted Striker]

At this moment in time I can sell all the way to October 19 calls on HTZ, a bankrupt company with 21b of debt vs 1b of assets and get a meaningful return.

But I'm not going to step in front of this train

I know, right?

And fucking cruise lines!

Hey, would you like to buy an expensive ticket to ride in a virus incubator?

Hell yeah!

I shoulda had some balls and joined you and Bob on that one.

Speaking of Bob, was that him with BBBY? Up 60ish% in a month. Even with the class-action lawsuit.

[LeeLau]

I know, right?

And fucking cruise lines!

Hey, would you like to buy an expensive ticket to ride in a virus incubator?

Hell yeah!

I shoulda had some balls and joined you and Bob on that one.

Speaking of Bob, was that him with BBBY? Up 60ish% in a month. Even with the class-action lawsuit.

Whatever Bob buys I want in. Seriously.

I bought some CHK protective June 19 30er calls just in case the price surged and they got orphaned when my CHK short position got bought in at 13. I thought they would zero but someone just bought those calls! Can't argue with a profit no matter how irrational

WLL which is bankrupt and where the old commons get 3% equity is also surging. The old commons are valuing the new company as if oil would be at $ 120.

Meanwhile companies like WORK which would benefit from wfh got slaughtered. But WORK has different issues.

[BobMc]

I know, right?

And fucking cruise lines!

Hey, would you like to buy an expensive ticket to ride in a virus incubator?

Hell yeah!

I shoulda had some balls and joined you and Bob on that one.

Speaking of Bob, was that him with BBBY? Up 60ish% in a month. Even with the class-action lawsuit.

Yup, hoping to ride it up to 15ish. My strategy of buying battered stuff is working fairly well.

[skaredshtles]

<snip> No one cares what Trump says. People don't put real money on what Trump says. People do their own due diligence....yes some people blindly throw money at things, but for the most part its not blind gambling.

You know... 6 months ago I would have agreed with you on this. At this point in the game... I don't know.

I can tell you - I'm in a *much* more comfortable spot, personally, sitting this shitshow out. I'll probably regret that come January 2021... but perhaps not.

[LeeLau]

Yup, hoping to ride it up to 15ish. My strategy of buying battered stuff is working fairly well.

Bob - you have no idea how stoked I am for you on this. But I am hoping to ride it back over a 3 - 5 year back to pre-COVID levels. Due to the added fairly massive dilution that's around 42 or so.

[Ted Striker]

Doesn't matter if you THINK its irrational or not....it is what it is - its real money, people ARE making a market.

Money has to go somewhere. That money is making the market.

Go back 100 pages on this thread and go back 100 pages on the Housing Market thread. People have been saying both are irrational since 2015-2016. After 5 years someone has to be wrong. I am gonna vote with reality rather than be on the outside looking in, but you can make your own choice.

The 2017 > forward market was fueled by the tax package. Buybacks were the main driver of stock-market demand, which pumped the dow considerably more than any added productivity. In turn, those open-market repurchases reduced liquidity. As an aggregate, between buybacks and dividends, the S&P 500 companies paid out more than 100% of their free cash flow in 2019. Add on the debt-fueled buybacks via corp bond issuance that was already taking place, and you have a market that isn't well supported by fundamentals, thus vulnerable to correction.

A LOT of this post-correction action is irrational. Demand is still down, and the fundamentals aren't really better. It's just the brrr machine.

[Ted Striker]

If you think BBBY is going to go the distance, their bonds are at a decent discount as well.

[Benny Profane]

Money has to go somewhere. That money is making the market.

And can be unmade by the market.

[Ted Striker]

Absolutely. Caveat Emptor.

[Kevo]

DJIA will be 40k by July 4th

[Timberridge]

Sign me up then.

[mcsquared]

DJIA will be 40k by July 4th

At a P/E of 40. Because why the fuck not.

[Benny Profane]

George Floyd would be proud.

[Ted Striker]

What's the ROI? Is this a toll bridge? I hear tolls are down right now, due to people not driving as much. Send pics, might be interested. I might have my bridge engineer guy take a look at it.

Yeah, not much driving at all.

[PB]

Any body care to predict what happens to the market if Trump loses?

[4matic]

Any body care to predict what happens to the market if Trump loses?

Nothing unless it’s blue wave then higher taxes sooner rather than later might be trouble.

[sirbumpsalot]

And can be unmade by the market.

The glass seems to be half empty still.....

[Kevo]

At a P/E of 40. Because why the fuck not.

Zoom is trading at a PE ratio of 1,147.79 (for real). If Zoom can do 1,147.79, the DJIA can do 40.

I kid, but nothing would surprise me at this point.

[dunfree]

Any body care to predict what happens to the market if Trump loses?

I wouldn’t try to predict August in this hellscape year.