Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

Back on topic, with the dismal data that came out today, how is the DOW not down 10,000 points? No way would I own this market. YRMV.

Multinational large cap tech are in better shape than nations. QQQ could be flat for next 12 months with IWM down another 20-30%.

[Ted Striker]

88% of people are asymptomatic

67.4% of statistics are made up.

[4matic]

If market does retest lows there will be carnage in levered credit CEF’s and funds again. I’ll look there for opportunity if it happens. ACP and PCI, OAK’A among others.

[Toadman]

22 million is nothing
you need to figure in another 22 million that are all 1099 employees of some company or part of the "gig economy"
those poor saps must be realizing how truly awful being self employed but not really self employed is

I was just thinking about those 1099 folks. There are a lot of them here in Bend. I think 1/5th of the work force are 1099's or close to that number. I've talked to quite a few on the lifts. Sounds great when biz is good, but when it's bad, it is really bad. Don't know how they will fair in this whole mess, especially when things start to eventually turn around.

[Stu Gotz]

If a company furloughed 100 people, are they going to hire all 100 back immediately or do it in increments of 10 over the span of months (assuming no re-infection closure)? Will the company ever get back to 100 or realize or will management decide it only needed 60 at "full capacity" over the course of 12 months? That's going to be a doozy. I think when this all shakes out, European unemployment rates (7-9%) are the norm for a while.

[Toadman]

67.4% of statistics are made up.

I only believe statistics 1/2 the time. But I 100% get where you are coming from.

[LeeLau]

I did not expect to see a market trading sideways. Took in the rest of my CCL short.

Put in google search filter on PR Newswire filtering for micro caps and small caps with COVID or PPE in their news releases. This is returning 20-30 hits per day. I then screen for volume, and then screen to see which one is most popular in Robinhood. Then I look to see if management of the target company has previously used stock promotions or better yet, been indicted for felony convictions (preference is for securities fraud). Then I look for borrows. The borrows is the hard part. So far this strategy is a lot of wait and watch.

How I wish that naked shorting was still permitted.

[Benny Profane]

If a company furloughed 100 people, are they going to hire all 100 back immediately or do it in increments of 10 over the span of months (assuming no re-infection closure)? Will the company ever get back to 100 or realize or will management decide it only needed 60 at "full capacity" over the course of 12 months? That's going to be a doozy. I think when this all shakes out, European unemployment rates (7-9%) are the norm for a while.

This is pretty much a grand excuse to eliminate labor costs. And now another big expense, rent, is going down now that everyone is finding out work at home ain't that bad.

[MiddleOfNight]

If a company furloughed 100 people, are they going to hire all 100 back immediately or do it in increments of 10 over the span of months (assuming no re-infection closure)? Will the company ever get back to 100 or realize or will management decide it only needed 60 at "full capacity" over the course of 12 months? That's going to be a doozy. I think when this all shakes out, European unemployment rates (7-9%) are the norm for a while.

Good point. And management will have those 60 to pick up the other 40's slack. And that 60 will be happy for the work. Brutal.

[dunfree]

When I can't find that doodad I need after searching some stores aisles for 10-15 minutes and only finding something close to it, but not exactly what I need, and then go home empty-handed, I always think - shoulda stayed home and spent 5 minutes on Amazon and bought it.

Funny, most of the weird fasteners/clamps/etc I need to buy are a 20minute search on amazon because their website is such a POS. Faster, quicker & cheaper to go to another vendor. Amazons just for run of the mill shit that I don’t need anytime in particular, and don’t care if it arrives fucked up, because if it arrives fucked up because they don’t give a shit how they pack stuff, the answer is “fuck you, we will refund your money and you can buy it at a higher price”

[4matic]

Put in google search filter on PR Newswire filtering for micro caps and small caps with COVID or PPE in their news releases. This is returning 20-30 hits per day. I then screen for volume, and then screen to see which one is most popular in Robinhood. Then I look to see if management of the target company has previously used stock promotions or better yet, been indicted for felony convictions (preference is for securities fraud). Then I look for borrows. The borrows is the hard part. So far this strategy is a lot of wait and watch.
.

Pro level. So much liquidity risk.

[LeeLau]

Pro level. So much liquidity risk.

These small cap small float rockets are not for the faint-hearted. I remember ADSX and trapped short sellers

The only fish I've caught so far is WORX and the borrows came only after the first day pump.

[ncskier]

I'm not a chartist, but has anyone overlaid a chart from the 20's with these events? I figured you autists were all into technicals and stuff.

As a funny anecdote after 20 years of being a Fido user, I have never been called by them. Yesterday a local office called and started asking if I needed some help. I inquired if they had looked at my activity and he surprisingly did his homework. So I asked him if he noticed I sold out all my stock positions on 2/24, he replied "yes", so I nicely asked we he didn't call me on 2/21. He laughed, then he noticed i purchased some positions around DOW 19k and sold again this Monday, thus getting me a "roundtrip" violation. He laughed again when I asked him if it really looked like a needed help. Said he was just doing his job. I get it, but I politely explained I didn't trust the current market as a buy and hold guy and the past 6-8 weeks was out of character for me. Which is true. Just odd timing for them to call. They did send a follow up email so it was legit and not scammy at all.

[sirbumpsalot]

AMZN looks a lot more like a collection of EBAY stores these days.

[rod9301]

I did not expect to see a market trading sideways. Took in the rest of my CCL short.

Put in google search filter on PR Newswire filtering for micro caps and small caps with COVID or PPE in their news releases. This is returning 20-30 hits per day. I then screen for volume, and then screen to see which one is most popular in Robinhood. Then I look to see if management of the target company has previously used stock promotions or better yet, been indicted for felony convictions (preference is for securities fraud). Then I look for borrows. The borrows is the hard part. So far this strategy is a lot of wait and watch.

How I wish that naked shorting was still permitted.

It is, use options

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[LeeLau]

It is, use options

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These are micro/small caps. Many times they don't have options. Almost always their options are illiquid.

[4matic]

QQQ 3% gain on IWM today. It’s already ahead 40% yoy.

[muted]

Funny, most of the weird fasteners/clamps/etc I need to buy are a 20minute search on amazon because their website is such a POS. Faster, quicker & cheaper to go to another vendor. Amazons just for run of the mill shit that I don’t need anytime in particular, and don’t care if it arrives fucked up, because if it arrives fucked up because they don’t give a shit how they pack stuff, the answer is “fuck you, we will refund your money and you can buy it at a higher price”

So what site is faster to find stuff for you?

I got 2 SATA internal hard drives (no external cases) from Amazon yesterday. One was packed perfectly in a smaller box, the other was loose in the box in a plastic bag. Did the worker packing not see the difference when packing?

[rod9301]

These are micro/small caps. Many times they don't have options. Almost always their options are illiquid.

Why worry about low market cap stocks with huge spreads when you can buy emerging markets etfs with very low valuations.

Stocks can go to zero, countries do not, or very very rarely.

Russia, turkey, Brazil, s Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Spain, Italy, Portugal, just to name a few that will return over 10 %a year real,.

Yeah, not all emerging, but all with very low Schiller pe ratios.

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[4matic]

Why worry about low market cap stocks with huge spreads when you can buy emerging markets etfs with very low valuations.

Stocks can go to zero, countries do not, or very very rarely.

Russia, turkey, Brazil, s Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Spain, Italy, Portugal, just to name a few that will return over 10 %a year real,.

Yeah, not all emerging, but all with very low Schiller pe ratios.

There is no holy grail. Large dose of safety mixed with small maximum risk portfolio is one way to generate alpha.

Diversification is for people that don’t know what they’re doing

[jackstraw]

Diversification is for people that don’t know what they’re doing

I'm so fucking diversified.

Lee just does this shit because he likes it. Endorphin rush reading stats and figuring (guessing) the results.

[Mazderati]

Graham and Dodd were known to hold a bunch of stocks - Buffett quipped too many - and they can safely be put in the bucket of people who knew what they were doing.

[LeeLau]

I'm so fucking diversified.

Lee just does this shit because he likes it. Endorphin rush reading stats and figuring (guessing) the results.

Pretty much. Usually I'd be skiing. The bulk of my port is in buy and forget yield so I can go hang out on a glciaier for 3 weeks and not check in.

It's good to exercise old skills.even if they're not exactly beneficial to.the world

[Benny Profane]

Holy crap, Trump just jacked the futures. Absurd.

[ncskier]

Up 900 so far


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