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  1. #10701
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    3,011
    LeeLau did a deep dive look into Carnival’s financials on here (post covid outbreak) - you should be able to find it using search. It was financial mumbo-jumbo to me but I’m simple. I think he did a dumpster dive at the bottom but then switched to shorting it - but don’t quote me on that as I might not have it right.

  2. #10702
    Join Date
    Nov 2002
    Location
    Behind the Zion Curtain
    Posts
    3,223
    I read that, I also read that they had enough cash to survive for 15 months of no sailings. He’s betting it’ll crater at a time it was $8 per share. Since then we’ve seen a Saudi infusion of cash and we’ll see what happens...

  3. #10703
    LL was averaging down at $8 (long), sold at $14 -18 and shorted. Now at $12. There's a debt overhang that he's basing his short position on, it's nothing to do with long term.

    Also, Galloway piece was written Feb 28 before full fleet grounding, global lock-down and shares were at $32.

    fucking amateurs

  4. #10704
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,775
    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    I read that, I also read that they had enough cash to survive for 15 months of no sailings. He’s betting it’ll crater at a time it was $8 per share. Since then we’ve seen a Saudi infusion of cash and we’ll see what happens...
    Bob

    I think you'll be fine. I bought a small position I wanted to keep for a long time based on your thinking but paid more $ 14 and change. Basically because the cruising types are as addicted to it as we are to skiing. Also because those boats generate cash.

    Carnival then announced financing on pretty stiff terms. They sold a lot of stock and stock equivalents at a price of approximately 8 and 10 but the stock inexplicably went up to 14 from 12. Almost always when a company raises money at price x the stock price drops to price x. So I shorted CCL. When they confirmed they were doing their financing raise at 8 the stock dropped and I took the profit. That was just an educated guess based on my experience in being involved in negotiating these financings and profiting from them (as the lender).

    But that was just a short term profitable trade. I kept my core long CCL for the same reason you are long. Same reason as Galloway but we agree for different reasons. Either they fail and I lose it all. Or if they succeed they win big. There won't be an in-between for them.

    I do think that this summer and fall will be bad for CCL and that I'll have an opportunity to buy more in the sub 10 as the entire travel sector looks the shits. But I'm thinking 4 maybe 5 years for them. They're the best of the cruise lines. I feel RCL and NCLH will crater before Carnival

  5. #10705
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Posts
    3,011
    Wasn’t the Saudi money not an infusion post covid but simply a reveal that they already owned a large percentage of the carnival stock (bought pre-covid) - maybe I read that wrong

  6. #10706
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,775
    Quote Originally Posted by bennymac View Post
    Wasn’t the Saudi money not an infusion post covid but simply a reveal that they already owned a large percentage of the carnival stock (bought pre-covid) - maybe I read that wrong
    You read it right. The Saudis bought Carnival on the open market at 14s. The money didn't go to CCL.

    Carnival burns 1bn a month. They have 9bn in cash so they can last 9months. But 3bn in cash is a bank loan and they violate bank covenants by August 31st if they don't sail which is why I calculate 6 months for them to get new loans. .6 month's breathing room is a lot of time though. Lots can happen

  7. #10707
    Join Date
    Apr 2019
    Location
    New Mexico
    Posts
    202
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    These folks still know how to bring it in the USA. They are not shy to use the threat of violence. Not sure about molotov cocktails, they tend to favor more precision guided projectiles...In another life, I had my share of run ins with the ILWU. Of course always on their turf.

    Protesting union members blocked the tracks and squared off against about 40 law enforcement officers equipped in tactical helmets, with some carrying bean-bag shotguns and pepper-ball guns. Three were arrested in the original confrontation, then a standoff of about an hour took place. At about 4:35 pm, the 107-car train backed up about 200 yards, to the cheers of the crowd. At that time, ILWU National President Robert McEllrath told the crowd that it was time to back off, to “live to fight another day.”

    This morning, the protestors actually entered the plant site, storming the security guards at the facility. None of those people were attacked or injured, but they report that the protestors took a Columbia Security vehicle, then drove it into a ditch. Windows were also broken out on the guard shack. Speaking with local law enforcement from a hiding place in the plant, the security guards reported that the protestors went in and cut hoses on the train that had entered the facility. After doing that damage, those involved in the confrontation quickly left, while law enforcement resources were staging nearby. Shortly after 6 am, law enforcement set up a perimeter around the plant, planning to arrest all remaining protestors on the property.

    My understanding from some 2nd hand accounts on the incident, were that the guards were pissing their pants after they had been overrun.
    Modern law enforcement, police, was born to control the factory workers. Lots of interesting history.

  8. #10708
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    cow hampshire
    Posts
    5,058
    Invest in something better than cruise lines. They're right up there with the worst of the worst. Fuck them.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesel.../#3e40492c37db

    In France, 10% of air pollution in the port city of Marseilles can be directly contributed to the shipping industry. Locals lament the increase in pollution and health issues with more luxury cruise liners docking in the harbor, and now environmental groups and the regional government are implementing emissions tests and issuing fines to the offending cruise lines. It is estimated that over 50,000 Europeans die prematurely every year as a result of shipping-based pollution.

    Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, local environmental groups have demonstrated that a single cruise ship can emit as much pollution as 700 trucks and as much particulate matter as a million cars. It has been estimated that between 40,000 and 100,000 Britons die prematurely every year as a result of emissions from the shipping and cruise industries, with major port-cities such as Southampton, Grimsby and Liverpool particularly affected. In recent years there have been several moves towards reducing the amount of pollution being emitted by ships, however, half the UK seashore lacks the legal protection of maritime pollution laws.

  9. #10709
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    40,971
    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    it's all old folks, where else do they go? basically he said social security keeps carnival in business and as long as the checks keep coming so will the cruisers
    Wow, he's right. This business has an incredibly loyal following. I thought it was popular, but, I never knew.

    https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...-for-next-year

    "In the last 45 days, CruiseCompete.com, an online cruise marketplace, has seen a 40% increase in bookings for 2021 compared with 2019, said Heidi M. Allison, president of the company. Only 11% of the bookings are from people whose 2020 trips were canceled, she said.
    “People are still booking cruises and are anxious to sail again when this is all over,” she said."

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  10. #10710
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    WA
    Posts
    5,856
    You can't fix stupid.
    I remember a bottomless freedom...

  11. #10711
    Join Date
    Aug 2006
    Posts
    5,668
    Grandparents just had to hang it up at 85 or so after going on 4x cruises a year for 20 years of retirement. They had to drop about 20k a year on that.

    You know they brought photos to the family events. Not going to lie, I kinda liked the idea of a euro river cruise, they looked the coolest and the least crowded/most relaxing.
    Live Free or Die

  12. #10712
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    40,971
    I know a couple who did one of them with bikes on board, and they would hop off and get some exercise cruising around. Now, that sorta sounds ok to me, I guess, but still way too expensive.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  13. #10713
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Loveland, Chair 9.
    Posts
    4,452
    Quote Originally Posted by BobMc View Post
    I’ve been pretty broke my entire life, used a meager 401k account to move to Utah years ago, been living on fumes for the years since. Started a business and then got fucked by letting in the wrong tenant.

    Gained a bit of cash lately via Christmas gifts from equally middle class Mom. 2k into an Ameritrade account and I’m off to the races! I’m figuring on investing it into stuff I like, as in stuff I do. Bought 100 shares of Carnival last night at $12.00, slightly up today, probably more than I made at work. Thought about throwing the rest of it at RCL or NCL but decided to buy 100 shares of Camping World instead.

    I’m hoping to buy stuff battered by the covids that I think will come back. I read a lot of cruising forums and pages, I’m not seeing a drop off in enthusiasm for cruising, most folks are rescheduling their cruises and the lines are being proactive. Anything travel related will take a while but you have to believe we’ll get back to normal eventually, I’m hoping I can turn my 2k into a vacation in a few years, .
    buying anything here is risky imo, especially cruise lines that may not be able to operate until 2021.

    imo, the economic fallout has just begun. companies all over the world will take this opportunity to automate even more jobs and so many countries that had things made in china and anywhere overseas will be pulling them back local if they are essential as people will demand it and that will raise prices on so many things and that will take years to work out. it certainly looks like this is about to make 2008 look like a walk in the park.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  14. #10714
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,367
    Quote Originally Posted by Lvovsky View Post
    Modern law enforcement, police, was born to control the factory workers. Lots of interesting history.
    Granted. Podunk Longview, WA isn't equipped for these types of situations either. But the ILWU is not averse to using the threat of violence or actually employing that tactic.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  15. #10715
    In terms of air travel, worldwide segments are down 97% YoY for my employer (EMEA, APAC, AMER - pretty evenly distributed). I have a job this year, but things may get weird in 2021 as "V-shape" recovery hopes turn up empty. Time is limited in terms of how long carriers can stay afloat with such a demand shock. Cost reductions and capacity cuts are requisite for survival, so the idea that we go back to anything near 2019 throughput is a several year journey at best. LUV & RYAAY are probably best suited to win 5-10yrs out, as well as LCC/ULCCs in general - but they're priced accordingly. And all that income and employment cut free by the cost+capacity cuts needs to be absorbed into other industries that are expanding, which presents a problem given the uniformity of contraction across so many industries. No free lunch.

    see this for a high level view of why the impulse to buy today is likely premature... a relic of bull market psychology that has experienced a shock, but will only die with the equity indices.

    https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v42/...ooze/shockwave

    Vol. 42 No. 8 · 16 April 2020

    Shockwave

    Adam Tooze on the pandemic’s consequences for the world economy



    Click image for larger version. 

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ID:	324779

  16. #10716
    Join Date
    Mar 2017
    Location
    Missoula DMV
    Posts
    863
    Quote Originally Posted by AdironRider View Post
    Grandparents just had to hang it up at 85 or so after going on 4x cruises a year for 20 years of retirement. They had to drop about 20k a year on that.

    You know they brought photos to the family events. Not going to lie, I kinda liked the idea of a euro river cruise, they looked the coolest and the least crowded/most relaxing.
    The parents have done 1 or 2 of the river cruises, one of with was Moscow-to-St. Petersburg. They never cared to the open-water cruises. While I hate the idea of being on a boat with 50+ other people, hearing about their river cruise is the only time I've been somewhat interested. Still prefer renting a car.

  17. #10717
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    40,971
    I would think that you're still dealing with a lot of pollution and/or remnants of pollution. At least the ocean waters are a lot cleaner.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  18. #10718
    Join Date
    Dec 2002
    Location
    cow hampshire
    Posts
    5,058
    Quote Originally Posted by the propagandist formerly monikered brostoyevski View Post

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	tooze.JPG 
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    My friend works for a division within ABB. They just announced a mandatory 2-week furlough over the next two months for well over a 1000 employees.

    Other peers in my industry are seeing a 40-50% reduction in sales.

    Lucky if we see a resemblance of normality by July? And realistically, September to be feeling "ok", but not super confident.

  19. #10719
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    16,194
    I know some euro river cruisers. They said it was really slow moving.

  20. #10720
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,367
    Quote Originally Posted by glademaster View Post
    You can't fix stupid.
    You actually can't. It's such an obvious statement, but I think some people who have intelligence kind of abuse that statement. In any event, I think there's some serious pent up demand by American's to go out and do stuff when the virus is not so prevalent. (If that actually even occurs this year.)

    I suspect the amusement parks, national parks and other vacation hot spots will be inundated with people. And if there's a 2nd wave of COVID-19, o COVID-20 or whatever virus comes a knocking, then so be it.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

  21. #10721
    Join Date
    Aug 2016
    Posts
    2,359
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    I suspect the amusement parks, national parks and other vacation hot spots will be inundated with people. And if there's a 2nd wave of COVID-19, o COVID-20 or whatever virus comes a knocking, then so be it.
    I think this is correct, but what’s going to happen when they get there and half of the small bizs are closed and the other half are barely moving? Or even the big bizs
    All Xanterra operations in Yellowstone are being suspended from Friday, March 20 – through Thursday, May 21 due to concerns surrounding COVID-19. We have paused hiring for summer 2020. Thank you for your interest in Yellowstone jobs, and we look forward to discussing job opportunities soon!
    Bolding mine. reopening ain’t flicking a switch. Yes, there are tons of service people currently out of work.

  22. #10722
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    North Vancouver/Whistler
    Posts
    11,775
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post
    You actually can't. It's such an obvious statement, but I think some people who have intelligence kind of abuse that statement. In any event, I think there's some serious pent up demand by American's to go out and do stuff when the virus is not so prevalent. (If that actually even occurs this year.)

    I suspect the amusement parks, national parks and other vacation hot spots will be inundated with people. And if there's a 2nd wave of COVID-19, o COVID-20 or whatever virus comes a knocking, then so be it.
    Tried to get long some SIX ( amusement parks paying dividends). Missed it .. for now

  23. #10723
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    the ham
    Posts
    7,512
    That "paused" is going to turn into canceled.

  24. #10724
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Loveland, Chair 9.
    Posts
    4,452
    Quote Originally Posted by Toadman View Post

    I suspect the amusement parks, national parks and other vacation hot spots will be inundated with people. And if there's a 2nd wave of COVID-19, o COVID-20 or whatever virus comes a knocking, then so be it.
    other than an initial pop from those wanting to get out, I doubt it. will probably take a month to know what the drop in travel is but would not be surprised to see a 50% drop for next summer, this summer is already a lost cause.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  25. #10725
    Join Date
    Sep 2006
    Posts
    3,367
    This just came in my email box. Later suckers! I'm gunna put all of it in to the market and retire early!!!

    Hello,

    You have been selected to be a benefactor of $3,500,000.00 USD on the
    Bettencourt Charity donation.

    Respond by saying "YES I WANT TO PROCEED" If you intend to proceed with
    the funds transfer process

    With love,
    Françoise Bettencourt Meyers.
    "We don't beat the reaper by living longer, we beat the reaper by living well and living fully." - Randy Pausch

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