Is the stock market going to tank?

[El Chupacabra]

Dow 6,000 by 2023.

Did you leave off a zero?

[Toadman]

Did you leave off a zero?

Or, he forgot the 1 at the front...

[El Chupacabra]

Big picture is very likely slow erosion, several years to hit bottom. Maybe 30-40% of the global economy is still solvent. I felt compelled to hedge my BTC with tech shorts in case there's another cascade. And I'm working on a few positions to buy deep OTM puts on Yen/Yuan/Euro/EM currencies. It's game over for the current economic paradigm so the sooner it resets the better. Which means it will drag on and require lots of pain before meaningful action.

"Everything has cratered and isn't coming back so I'm going with bitcoin."

[Cono Este]

Big picture is very likely slow erosion, several years to hit bottom. Maybe 30-40% of the global economy is still solvent. I felt compelled to hedge my BTC with tech shorts in case there's another cascade. And I'm working on a few positions to buy deep OTM puts on Yen/Yuan/Euro/EM currencies. It's game over for the current economic paradigm so the sooner it resets the better. Which means it will drag on and require lots of pain before meaningful action.

If central banks buy all the debt and sustain overcapacity like they did in the late 20s and early 30s, then deflationary pressure just persists. It doesn't go anywhere. Productive capital isn't where it needs to be to drive profitable activity (growth) and structural problems are entrenched... stasis. Debt servicing constrains investment and hiring and structural unemployment and low/negative growth trend persists. Calls for more federal/govt work just lead to more low/no-productivity improvement... stasis again.

If central banks allow bankruptcies to take place, the feared liquidations will remove unneeded capacity then you'll see a much sharper down but much quicker response and recover (like in the 19th century USA). Productive capital like 737s won't be destroyed, except where the travel demand no longer exists.

It's why I think the right approach is to backstop essentials like food, UBI (rent-transport), medical subsistence. Keep down the misery index and let the commercial system cycle. But the corporatists, specifically Blackrock, are running the show & directing bailouts for credit ETFs, encouraging people TO FUCKING BUY BAD DEBT WITH GOOD MONEY because they believe (rightly) that the Fed will buy at a higher price. It's insanity.

I like this guy.

Welcome.


Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

[iceman]

oh he's not new here.

[Ted Striker]

_________________________________________________

[BobMc]

I’ve been pretty broke my entire life, used a meager 401k account to move to Utah years ago, been living on fumes for the years since. Started a business and then got fucked by letting in the wrong tenant.

Gained a bit of cash lately via Christmas gifts from equally middle class Mom. 2k into an Ameritrade account and I’m off to the races! I’m figuring on investing it into stuff I like, as in stuff I do. Bought 100 shares of Carnival last night at $12.00, slightly up today, probably more than I made at work. Thought about throwing the rest of it at RCL or NCL but decided to buy 100 shares of Camping World instead.

I’m hoping to buy stuff battered by the covids that I think will come back. I read a lot of cruising forums and pages, I’m not seeing a drop off in enthusiasm for cruising, most folks are rescheduling their cruises and the lines are being proactive. Anything travel related will take a while but you have to believe we’ll get back to normal eventually, I’m hoping I can turn my 2k into a vacation in a few years, .

[iceman]

Scott Galloway wrote about Carnival a couple weeks back, he thought it was a good play for a few reasons. bob you might like his newsletter, I do, you can sign up from his site if you want: https://www.profgalloway.com

[Doremite]

Cruises sorta like moths to the flame?

[iceman]

it's all old folks, where else do they go? basically he said social security keeps carnival in business and as long as the checks keep coming so will the cruisers

[Benny Profane]

I dont know. Even after this?

[iceman]

he made a pretty good case and it was lower then than it is now. we'll see.

[m2711c]

ski club trip committees already booking out next years trips.... vendors say business is brisk.

[dunfree]

I dont know. Even after this?

Yes. Know secondhand a number of people (old, money, fox news watchers) who are miffed the can’t go on a cruise now.

its weird as hell now, it’s like everyone’s just pretending these months never happened.

[Benny Profane]

Jezuz.

[bennymac]

LeeLau did a deep dive look into Carnival’s financials on here (post covid outbreak) - you should be able to find it using search. It was financial mumbo-jumbo to me but I’m simple. I think he did a dumpster dive at the bottom but then switched to shorting it - but don’t quote me on that as I might not have it right.

[BobMc]

I read that, I also read that they had enough cash to survive for 15 months of no sailings. He’s betting it’ll crater at a time it was $8 per share. Since then we’ve seen a Saudi infusion of cash and we’ll see what happens...

[LeeLau]

I read that, I also read that they had enough cash to survive for 15 months of no sailings. He’s betting it’ll crater at a time it was $8 per share. Since then we’ve seen a Saudi infusion of cash and we’ll see what happens...

Bob

I think you'll be fine. I bought a small position I wanted to keep for a long time based on your thinking but paid more $ 14 and change. Basically because the cruising types are as addicted to it as we are to skiing. Also because those boats generate cash.

Carnival then announced financing on pretty stiff terms. They sold a lot of stock and stock equivalents at a price of approximately 8 and 10 but the stock inexplicably went up to 14 from 12. Almost always when a company raises money at price x the stock price drops to price x. So I shorted CCL. When they confirmed they were doing their financing raise at 8 the stock dropped and I took the profit. That was just an educated guess based on my experience in being involved in negotiating these financings and profiting from them (as the lender).

But that was just a short term profitable trade. I kept my core long CCL for the same reason you are long. Same reason as Galloway but we agree for different reasons. Either they fail and I lose it all. Or if they succeed they win big. There won't be an in-between for them.

I do think that this summer and fall will be bad for CCL and that I'll have an opportunity to buy more in the sub 10 as the entire travel sector looks the shits. But I'm thinking 4 maybe 5 years for them. They're the best of the cruise lines. I feel RCL and NCLH will crater before Carnival

[bennymac]

Wasn’t the Saudi money not an infusion post covid but simply a reveal that they already owned a large percentage of the carnival stock (bought pre-covid) - maybe I read that wrong

[LeeLau]

Wasn’t the Saudi money not an infusion post covid but simply a reveal that they already owned a large percentage of the carnival stock (bought pre-covid) - maybe I read that wrong

You read it right. The Saudis bought Carnival on the open market at 14s. The money didn't go to CCL.

Carnival burns 1bn a month. They have 9bn in cash so they can last 9months. But 3bn in cash is a bank loan and they violate bank covenants by August 31st if they don't sail which is why I calculate 6 months for them to get new loans. .6 month's breathing room is a lot of time though. Lots can happen

[Lvovsky]

These folks still know how to bring it in the USA. They are not shy to use the threat of violence. Not sure about molotov cocktails, they tend to favor more precision guided projectiles...In another life, I had my share of run ins with the ILWU. Of course always on their turf.

Protesting union members blocked the tracks and squared off against about 40 law enforcement officers equipped in tactical helmets, with some carrying bean-bag shotguns and pepper-ball guns. Three were arrested in the original confrontation, then a standoff of about an hour took place. At about 4:35 pm, the 107-car train backed up about 200 yards, to the cheers of the crowd. At that time, ILWU National President Robert McEllrath told the crowd that it was time to back off, to “live to fight another day.”

This morning, the protestors actually entered the plant site, storming the security guards at the facility. None of those people were attacked or injured, but they report that the protestors took a Columbia Security vehicle, then drove it into a ditch. Windows were also broken out on the guard shack. Speaking with local law enforcement from a hiding place in the plant, the security guards reported that the protestors went in and cut hoses on the train that had entered the facility. After doing that damage, those involved in the confrontation quickly left, while law enforcement resources were staging nearby. Shortly after 6 am, law enforcement set up a perimeter around the plant, planning to arrest all remaining protestors on the property.

My understanding from some 2nd hand accounts on the incident, were that the guards were pissing their pants after they had been overrun.

Modern law enforcement, police, was born to control the factory workers. Lots of interesting history.

[jackstraw]

Invest in something better than cruise lines. They're right up there with the worst of the worst. Fuck them.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesel.../#3e40492c37db

In France, 10% of air pollution in the port city of Marseilles can be directly contributed to the shipping industry. Locals lament the increase in pollution and health issues with more luxury cruise liners docking in the harbor, and now environmental groups and the regional government are implementing emissions tests and issuing fines to the offending cruise lines. It is estimated that over 50,000 Europeans die prematurely every year as a result of shipping-based pollution.

Meanwhile, in the United Kingdom, local environmental groups have demonstrated that a single cruise ship can emit as much pollution as 700 trucks and as much particulate matter as a million cars. It has been estimated that between 40,000 and 100,000 Britons die prematurely every year as a result of emissions from the shipping and cruise industries, with major port-cities such as Southampton, Grimsby and Liverpool particularly affected. In recent years there have been several moves towards reducing the amount of pollution being emitted by ships, however, half the UK seashore lacks the legal protection of maritime pollution laws.

[Benny Profane]

it's all old folks, where else do they go? basically he said social security keeps carnival in business and as long as the checks keep coming so will the cruisers

Wow, he's right. This business has an incredibly loyal following. I thought it was popular, but, I never knew.

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...-for-next-year

"In the last 45 days, CruiseCompete.com, an online cruise marketplace, has seen a 40% increase in bookings for 2021 compared with 2019, said Heidi M. Allison, president of the company. Only 11% of the bookings are from people whose 2020 trips were canceled, she said.
“People are still booking cruises and are anxious to sail again when this is all over,” she said."

[glademaster]

You can't fix stupid.

[AdironRider]

Grandparents just had to hang it up at 85 or so after going on 4x cruises a year for 20 years of retirement. They had to drop about 20k a year on that.

You know they brought photos to the family events. Not going to lie, I kinda liked the idea of a euro river cruise, they looked the coolest and the least crowded/most relaxing.