Is the stock market going to tank?

[summit]

So who forgot to put the N95 on the stock markets?

[bennymac]

We need pics of Bennymac’s girlfriend’s tits in order to assess a good financial strategy.

If that’s what it takes for financial independence I’ll make the sacrifice.

[billyk]

My innate laziness saved me last time, I'm gonna try that plan again.

That was going to be my plan, too. But, FUCK, EVERY DAY IT GETS WORSE!

I somehow feel the urge to lock in this loss...

[ICantLogIn]

Just throw a dart at any put?? Maybe airlines?

[Brock Landers]

Just throw a dart at any put?? Maybe airlines?

I’ve been thinking along those lines. I like Ryanair based on growth but the more traditional ones are financially stronger and somewhat cheap for a business with improved margins, power over suppliers and customers thru consolidation, and solid cash generation. especially cheap now.

[ncskier]

I’ve been thinking along those lines. I like Ryanair based on growth but the more traditional ones are financially stronger and somewhat cheap for a business with improved margins, power over suppliers and customers thru consolidation, and solid cash generation. especially cheap now.

This is where the consolidation of the past 10-15 years pays off. Really on 3 majors left, 4 if you count southwest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[El Chupacabra]

FWIW, past epidemics and how markets reacted/recovered: (found from a Google search)

https://www.tradersmagazine.com/news...-stock-market/

Is this a case of "it's different this time"? Won't know for some months.

[4matic]

Selling 5% of my bonds today.

[iceman]

FWIW, past epidemics and how markets reacted/recovered: (found from a Google search)

https://www.tradersmagazine.com/news...-stock-market/

Is this a case of "it's different this time"? Won't know for some months.

From the article, re: Spanish Flu pandemic:

"...A global pandemic that killed 3% of the Earth’s population only sent markets down 10% over a period of four months.

This is a stunning result. The worst virus since the bubonic plague and markets go through a run-of-the-mill decline?"

[ICantLogIn]

From the article, re: Spanish Flu pandemic:

"...A global pandemic that killed 3% of the Earth’s population only sent markets down 10% over a period of four months.

This is a stunning result. The worst virus since the bubonic plague and markets go through a run-of-the-mill decline?"

No internet / social media.

[4matic]

If XOM doesn't cut the dividend you get all your money back in 14 years,

[CovertM]

This is much much easier than a new bathroom. Here. Go to Vanguard.com, start an account, have them extract a certain amount monthly from your paycheck, and put that money into a balanced stock and bond index fund. Dont fuck with it. If you have a matching 401k at work, you're a total fool by not participating, except maybe it's not too low cost, certainly not as much as Vanguard. Make sure that money is invested in a balanced fund. Read John Bogle. Easy.

Now, you owe me a drink.

Bunny is grossly uninformed about what "Real" financial advisers/financial planners do. Investment management is one small piece of the pie. As Brock alludes to later, much more shit going on for families with complex financial needs.
Plenty of people that walk through my door get a similar Vanguard speech, but that is not where value is added by hiring an adviser. Clearly Bunny's financial needs are still in the minor leagues. Keep dollar cost averaging into your Vanguard Target Date Fund.

[k2skier112]

Selling 5% of my bonds today.

Huh. My new bond fund, American Funds, is the only fund that has hasn't shown a loss this week, since I moved assets to it on the 25th. All the others are down about 10% now.

[4matic]

Huh. My new bond fund, American Funds, is the only fund that has hasn't shown a loss this week, since I moved assets to it on the 25th. All the others are down about 10% now.

Buy fear sell dear.

[Brock Landers]

Huh. My new bond fund, American Funds, is the only fund that has hasn't shown a loss this week, since I moved assets to it on the 25th. All the others are down about 10% now.

Take all the recent market stuff out of the equation...are you comfortable with your overall asset mix now versus before you moved some into bonds? If so then leave it. You got lucky and going forward have YOUR optimal target allocation. If you feel like you can take more risk, don’t rest on that bond fund’s laurels because it did what it’s supposed to do in a down market.

[Brock Landers]

Selling 5% of my bonds today.

You keeping in cash or waiting for a certain level to buy equity?

[MiddleOfNight]

FWIW, past epidemics and how markets reacted/recovered: (found from a Google search)

https://www.tradersmagazine.com/news...-stock-market/

Is this a case of "it's different this time"? Won't know for some months.

interesting, thx for posting. I wondered about past scares.

Overall I'm down about 8%, not worried. I'm decades away from my period of need. and in the meantime I can buy more with the same moneys.

[4matic]

You keeping in cash or waiting for a certain level to buy equity?

Both. I'm raising cash for immediate income and cash accounts are paying 1%+. Short term time risk isn't worth the duration.

I like to buy trash no one wants so my list is T, XOM, GM, CHV, PFF, HYG. DIA will get interesting on more systemic selling.

I'll be selling more bonds in the days ahead (maybe today). I got what I wanted out of the (15 month) trade and time to change course.

Also, plan all along was start selling bonds this year. I've been selling .5% on the first of every month but just accelerated sales on opportunity.

[Brock Landers]

another reason the virus is impacting markets is supply chain. China shuts down, whether virus or not, impacts businesses anywhere. Wasn’t like that 70 years ago when The impacts of SF on businesses were a bit more contained.

[4matic]

This is also a potential behavioral change. More domestic travel, nesting, personal health, etc.

Marriott stock is performing well for example.

[klauss]

I closed out of March VIX calls with a 13 strike on Tuesday. Fuck me eh.

That article on past epidemics is not really going to translate as I don't recall widespread global quarantines really fucking with economic activity during those events. I suppose they aren't widespread yet, but looking more likely

[k2skier112]

Take all the recent market stuff out of the equation...are you comfortable with your overall asset mix now versus before you moved some into bonds? If so then leave it. You got lucky and going forward have YOUR optimal target allocation. If you feel like you can take more risk, don’t rest on that bond fund’s laurels because it did what it’s supposed to do in a down market.

I was at too high of a risk allocation. I was 87% growth, 13% income. My FA recommends 65-35 at age 58. Right now I'm about 78-22. I have been wanting to make this adjustment for over 6 months now.
I'm still up over every qtr from 2019 except the 4th. I'm happy. Even better is the wife got a nice inheritance check, and I will get one by the years end. It will be an awesome time to buy! Hope it goes lower!!!

[Brock Landers]

I closed out of a March VIX call with a 13 strike on Tuesday. Fuck me eh.

Oh fuck.

I guess the calls I wrote 2 weeks ago won’t be exercised...but I can figure out where and when to go long with that cash.

Check out the more granular trading on the indices- the gaps down are pretty crazy at times. I guess the algo trading computers aren’t down with the virus?

[4matic]

Problem with traditional allocation models is bonds yield nothing. Cash needs to be a a part of every model now imo.

[klauss]

Anyone have experience shorting TVIX or VXX