Results 8,276 to 8,300 of 18218
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02-25-2020, 03:03 PM #8276
Is the stock market going to tank?
I can’t see how this is a surprise to anyone.
I think this will be a yr when we see “over sold” conditions. Wait a few months until we, the last to know, are informed.
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02-25-2020, 03:05 PM #8277
It sure was when it first started.
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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02-25-2020, 03:05 PM #8278
Anyone who is surprised that can’t keep making 20% a yr for free needs a kick in the nuts.
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02-25-2020, 03:07 PM #8279
That too....
Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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02-25-2020, 03:10 PM #8280
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02-25-2020, 03:13 PM #8281
Is the stock market going to tank?
The dumb asses who thought it was all real just a couple of days ago.
I wonder how many went on margin to buy over priced homes?
Could be a factor in a yr.
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02-25-2020, 03:20 PM #8282
I know some cats around town that have been playing both amateur day traders and spec home builders making pretty good hay while constantly on vacation and having their face in a plate. Won’t be sad to see their run slowed a bit.
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02-25-2020, 03:38 PM #8283
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02-25-2020, 03:39 PM #8284
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02-25-2020, 03:42 PM #8285Funky But Chic
- Join Date
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- The Cone of Uncertainty
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- 49,306
Zuckerberg has a mortgage?
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02-25-2020, 03:50 PM #8286Funky But Chic
- Join Date
- Sep 2001
- Location
- The Cone of Uncertainty
- Posts
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I really hope we get below January 20, 2017.
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02-25-2020, 03:53 PM #8287
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02-25-2020, 03:54 PM #8288
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02-25-2020, 03:55 PM #8289
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02-25-2020, 03:55 PM #8290
I’ll take your ‘Fuck Me’, and raise you one...Fuck Trump. The end net result of his fiscal policies are going to be absolutely devastating in ten years or so, we need to stop him before he does more damage, even if it means short term pain.
Look at the big picture.
Four more years could destroy this nation.Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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02-25-2020, 04:00 PM #8291
I’m no economist, just a dumb ex trader, but I would think we’ve squeezed extra from the fed money tree.
Always interested to hear from those who understand the money supply better than I.
I will say, that I would imagine there is slot more risk on in banks, than there was pre Trump.
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02-25-2020, 04:01 PM #8292
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02-25-2020, 04:01 PM #8293
4 more years of anyone is not going to destroy or save the past 40 years of poor decisions and trillions spent on foreign wars. Plus deficits we’ve built up and poor tax codes. You don’t like trump, great, you’re still an asshole wishing pain on anyone.
If you lose your job and struggle you’re not going to care who is in office.
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02-25-2020, 04:22 PM #8294
Is the stock market going to tank?
Money supply, m1,2,3 etc., were important when Friedman was the prevailing economic theorist. It’s been proven a false narrative. Velocity is probably important but it’s been dead for so long. Monetary and fiscal stimulus are the biggest (only) drivers of growth these days.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
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02-25-2020, 04:23 PM #8295
That’s still my forecast, pre election levels. Wipe out the Trump gains.
End of 2018 we were on our way, so I’m not 100% that we didn’t already fill that gap. But technically we did not.
If we do, I’m probably going back to college, for free. If they’ll take me, I imagine they’ll be a long line.
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02-25-2020, 04:32 PM #8296
I don’t think you entirely understand the severity of the situation.
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/us-...-fed-official/Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident
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02-25-2020, 04:34 PM #8297
Sorry for drift. I realize this isn't the topic of the thread, but it's what I know. I'm into bonds and the secondary mortgage market. No dickwaving portfolio claims. Just leaving this for posterity and I'll try to check back in as shitter time allows... Lots of buzzwords depending on one's background, but goggleable for those who are super interested. Saves me another 5 paragraphs not having to define things like "option adjusted duration."
Short term rates apply to short term loans. Option adjusted duration on an average mortgage varies between 4 and 12 years historically and is hugging the low end of that range now due ti 2017 and 2018 vintages of MBS/mortgages being unequivocally in the money. Anyway, those duration realities make 5s, 10s, and a 5/10 blend the preferred benchmarks for tracking MBS spreads.
The reason mortgage rates aren't falling as fast as treasuries is almost always negative convexity. Long story short, mortgages are bonds that can be called by the consumer any time they want to sell or refi. Mortgage investors pay a premium for the right to collect interest in those loans/bonds. If the consumer calls early, investor is left holding the bag and thus pays much less premium for the next one. Lower premium = lower mortgage bond pricing= higher mortgage rates relative to benchmarks.
This is compounded by lender pipelines where adjusting rate offerings too aggressively risks lock fallout and lost business. Long story short, if people refi too quick, the investors fronting the money aren't going to pay as much because they won't collect as much interest. Investor prepayment expectations cause mortgage rates to move lower like a tortoise to the Treasury market's hare.
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02-25-2020, 04:35 PM #8298
Is the stock market going to tank?
Negative reaction to next Fed easing could be a catalyst. They’ve already announced exit from the repo market in April.
I think oil is going to be the next market to fail. If it does there could be trouble in the junk market. Lots of shale energy debt is maturing and they won’t be able to refinance with low energy price
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft....d-25e377c0ee1f
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02-25-2020, 04:36 PM #8299
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02-25-2020, 04:37 PM #8300
I think letting your emotions put the blame at the feet of a single individual is childish and immature.
You rail against trump, but you know in the midst of impeachment, Nancy and Chuck passed the largest federal budget of all time knowing full well the deficit was a trillion fucking dollars. Not to mention during the Obama years where he doubled the deficit, the republican house and senate passed his spending bills. So in the end, the all fucking spend money we don't have.
I didn't give him credit for the stock run and I won't give him blame for a correction.
Like a bunch of fucking children in here.
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