Page 332 of 729 FirstFirst ... 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 ... LastLast
Results 8,276 to 8,300 of 18218
  1. #8276
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,294

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    A swan can be any number of sizes, it’s the surprise.
    I can’t see how this is a surprise to anyone.


    I think this will be a yr when we see “over sold” conditions. Wait a few months until we, the last to know, are informed.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  2. #8277
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,361
    It sure was when it first started.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  3. #8278
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,294
    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    It sure was when it first started.
    Anyone who is surprised that can’t keep making 20% a yr for free needs a kick in the nuts.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  4. #8279
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,361
    That too....
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  5. #8280
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    Anyone who is surprised that can’t keep making 20% a yr for free needs a kick in the nuts.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Who the hell has been making 20 per?

  6. #8281
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,294

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Who the hell has been making 20 per?
    The dumb asses who thought it was all real just a couple of days ago.

    I wonder how many went on margin to buy over priced homes?

    Could be a factor in a yr.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  7. #8282
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    2,572
    I know some cats around town that have been playing both amateur day traders and spec home builders making pretty good hay while constantly on vacation and having their face in a plate. Won’t be sad to see their run slowed a bit.

  8. #8283
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post
    The dumb asses who thought it was all real just a couple of days ago.

    I wonder how many went on margin to buy over priced homes?

    Could be a factor in a yr.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Um, Zuckerberg has a mortgage. Pretty much everyone goes on "margin" to buy homes.

  9. #8284
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by CascadeLuke View Post
    I know some cats around town that have been playing both amateur day traders and spec home builders making pretty good hay while constantly on vacation and having their face in a plate. Won’t be sad to see their run slowed a bit.
    Where do you people live?

  10. #8285
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    49,306
    Zuckerberg has a mortgage?

  11. #8286
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    49,306
    I really hope we get below January 20, 2017.

  12. #8287
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    The Queen City North Carolina
    Posts
    1,436
    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    Maybe this Black Swan will stab Trump right in the heart, and we as a nation can rejoice. (I know, take it to polyass)
    You to people who say this, I’d say fuck off. Wishing harm upon millions of Americans who could potentially be unemployed is mighty self righteous because you don’t like an elected official. He’s not king for life.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  13. #8288
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Posts
    2,572

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Where do you people live?
    Seattle area for me but I bet you would find carbon copies of them in every emerging metro city. Easy come .... easy blow

    And to no surprise the ones I’m thinking of believe Trump is the man.

  14. #8289
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    The Queen City North Carolina
    Posts
    1,436
    Quote Originally Posted by Benny Profane View Post
    Where do you people live?
    I’m shocked I agree with Bennie. Where is this


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  15. #8290
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,361
    I’ll take your ‘Fuck Me’, and raise you one...Fuck Trump. The end net result of his fiscal policies are going to be absolutely devastating in ten years or so, we need to stop him before he does more damage, even if it means short term pain.
    Look at the big picture.
    Four more years could destroy this nation.
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  16. #8291
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,294
    I’m no economist, just a dumb ex trader, but I would think we’ve squeezed extra from the fed money tree.

    Always interested to hear from those who understand the money supply better than I.

    I will say, that I would imagine there is slot more risk on in banks, than there was pre Trump.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  17. #8292
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Looking down
    Posts
    50,491
    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    Zuckerberg has a mortgage?
    Yup.

    It's a matter of tax avoidance. These guys borrow on their perceived equity, therefore, never cashing out and paying zero taxes. Bezo's lives like this. They get super low rates. Fuck, who knows, maybe their accountants figured a refund in there.

  18. #8293
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    The Queen City North Carolina
    Posts
    1,436
    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    I’ll take your ‘Fuck Me’, and raise you one...Fuck Trump. The end net result of his fiscal policies are going to be absolutely devastating in ten years or so, we need to stop him before he does more damage, even if it means short term pain.
    Look at the big picture.
    Four more years could destroy this nation.
    4 more years of anyone is not going to destroy or save the past 40 years of poor decisions and trillions spent on foreign wars. Plus deficits we’ve built up and poor tax codes. You don’t like trump, great, you’re still an asshole wishing pain on anyone.
    If you lose your job and struggle you’re not going to care who is in office.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

  19. #8294
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cono Este View Post

    Always interested to hear from those who understand the money supply better than I.
    Money supply, m1,2,3 etc., were important when Friedman was the prevailing economic theorist. It’s been proven a false narrative. Velocity is probably important but it’s been dead for so long. Monetary and fiscal stimulus are the biggest (only) drivers of growth these days.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

  20. #8295
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    13,294
    Quote Originally Posted by iceman View Post
    I really hope we get below January 20, 2017.
    That’s still my forecast, pre election levels. Wipe out the Trump gains.

    End of 2018 we were on our way, so I’m not 100% that we didn’t already fill that gap. But technically we did not.

    If we do, I’m probably going back to college, for free. If they’ll take me, I imagine they’ll be a long line.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  21. #8296
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Down In A Hole, Up in the Sky
    Posts
    35,361
    Quote Originally Posted by ncskier View Post
    4 more years of anyone is not going to destroy or save the past 40 years of poor decisions and trillions spent on foreign wars. Plus deficits we’ve built up and poor tax codes. You don’t like trump, great, you’re still an asshole wishing pain on anyone.
    If you lose your job and struggle you’re not going to care who is in office.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    I don’t think you entirely understand the severity of the situation.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2020/02/us-...-fed-official/
    Forum Cross Pollinator, gratuitously strident

  22. #8297
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,887
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    What's missing other than short term rates at zero? 30 year rate is barely off its all time low. I agree that there is a minimum administrative rate.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NUh
    Sorry for drift. I realize this isn't the topic of the thread, but it's what I know. I'm into bonds and the secondary mortgage market. No dickwaving portfolio claims. Just leaving this for posterity and I'll try to check back in as shitter time allows... Lots of buzzwords depending on one's background, but goggleable for those who are super interested. Saves me another 5 paragraphs not having to define things like "option adjusted duration."

    Short term rates apply to short term loans. Option adjusted duration on an average mortgage varies between 4 and 12 years historically and is hugging the low end of that range now due ti 2017 and 2018 vintages of MBS/mortgages being unequivocally in the money. Anyway, those duration realities make 5s, 10s, and a 5/10 blend the preferred benchmarks for tracking MBS spreads.

    The reason mortgage rates aren't falling as fast as treasuries is almost always negative convexity. Long story short, mortgages are bonds that can be called by the consumer any time they want to sell or refi. Mortgage investors pay a premium for the right to collect interest in those loans/bonds. If the consumer calls early, investor is left holding the bag and thus pays much less premium for the next one. Lower premium = lower mortgage bond pricing= higher mortgage rates relative to benchmarks.

    This is compounded by lender pipelines where adjusting rate offerings too aggressively risks lock fallout and lost business. Long story short, if people refi too quick, the investors fronting the money aren't going to pay as much because they won't collect as much interest. Investor prepayment expectations cause mortgage rates to move lower like a tortoise to the Treasury market's hare.

  23. #8298
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,814

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Negative reaction to next Fed easing could be a catalyst. They’ve already announced exit from the repo market in April.

    I think oil is going to be the next market to fail. If it does there could be trouble in the junk market. Lots of shale energy debt is maturing and they won’t be able to refinance with low energy price

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft....d-25e377c0ee1f

  24. #8299
    Join Date
    Nov 2014
    Posts
    1,887
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Money supply, m1,2,3 etc., were important when Friedman was the prevailing economic theorist. It’s been proven a false narrative. Velocity is probably important but it’s been dead for so long. Monetary and fiscal stimulus are the biggest (only) drivers of growth these days.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V
    Wholeheartedly agree. Always chuckle when my clients tell me something else should be happening due to money supply/velocity.

    There's a lot of old guy thinking that no longer applies.

  25. #8300
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    The Queen City North Carolina
    Posts
    1,436
    Quote Originally Posted by rideit View Post
    I don’t think you entirely understand the severity of the situation.
    I think letting your emotions put the blame at the feet of a single individual is childish and immature.
    You rail against trump, but you know in the midst of impeachment, Nancy and Chuck passed the largest federal budget of all time knowing full well the deficit was a trillion fucking dollars. Not to mention during the Obama years where he doubled the deficit, the republican house and senate passed his spending bills. So in the end, the all fucking spend money we don't have.
    I didn't give him credit for the stock run and I won't give him blame for a correction.
    Like a bunch of fucking children in here.

Similar Threads

  1. Who voted for Bush/Cheney in '00 or '04?
    By Bud Green in forum General Ski / Snowboard Discussion
    Replies: 281
    Last Post: 04-14-2006, 11:44 PM
  2. Risotto Recipes - What you got?
    By skiaholik in forum The Padded Room
    Replies: 41
    Last Post: 03-29-2006, 05:03 PM
  3. Did American Ski Company get delisted from the stock market?
    By Free Range Lobster in forum General Ski / Snowboard Discussion
    Replies: 3
    Last Post: 09-06-2005, 06:13 AM
  4. Bear Activists Killed and Eaten by Bears in Katmai
    By Lane Meyer in forum TGR Forum Archives
    Replies: 30
    Last Post: 10-09-2003, 08:43 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •