Is the stock market going to tank?

**yeahman** · 01-15-2020, 02:52 PM

I'm sure you're right that some towns make access difficult if they can, but there's still plenty of beaches for the public to use. "Public resource" doesn't necessarily mean it's free (ever been to a national park?), and obviously some sort of fee needs to be charged for lifeguards, litter control, etc.Forty-four beaches the public can access in New Jersey seems pretty good to me. Costs $5 to access Island Beach State Park, for instance, or $50 for an annual pass to all the state park beaches. That's a bargain. And judging by the amount of people there in the summer, lots of locals take advantage of it. Also, before Memorial Day and after Labor Day, there is no fee at all.

Anyway, not my state so I won't pretend to know all there is to know, but based on my visits it seems like a lot of easy access to a lot of pretty sweet beaches. Go off season and they're practically empty, and free. If I lived in NJ, I'd be taking full advantage of the resource.

**Benny Profane** · 01-15-2020, 03:00 PM

Island Beach park is cool, spent a lot of days and nights there in my drug addled yute, but, bottom line, places like that are few and far between and hard to get to. Or, to put it this way, think of the rest of the Jersey Shore as Island beach, but with private property owners allowed to spoil that place, and restrict access to others that want to use that place. Also, a whole road infrastructure to those places to enhance their RE value. There's a whole lot more of that.

**iceman** · 01-15-2020, 03:11 PM

Plus lots of big hair and long nails on the beach. High heels in the sand not unheard-of.

**Benny Profane** · 01-15-2020, 04:14 PM

That's Seaside Heights right up da road, and Asbury. Although Asbury has changed an awful lot over the last decade or so. Leave it to gay people to clean certain places up.

Gay people do a really good job at RE asset value fluffing.

**4matic** · 01-17-2020, 10:54 AM

BA is a State Sponsored Enterprise. That's why it has held up. Maybe Elon Musk can start a new aircraft builder.

**CovertM** · 01-17-2020, 12:04 PM

"Because of this interdependence of market returns, it is easy for investors to convince themselves that markets can be due for good or bad years. And with the stellar performance in U.S. markets over the previous decade, it feels like a correction is warranted. However, if you examine the data you will realize that this thinking is just as flawed as the person expecting a tails after seeing five heads in a row. There is little to no relationship between prior 10-year returns and growth over the next 10 years."

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-investors-fallacy/

**rideit** · 01-17-2020, 12:36 PM

Maybe, but there are softening global markets, we don’t exist in a bubble. (Heh)

**Benny Profane** · 01-17-2020, 12:51 PM

Originally Posted by rideit

Maybe, but there are softening global markets, we don’t exist in a bubble. (Heh)

Yes, we are the world.

**Benny Profane** · 01-17-2020, 01:03 PM

phew, in the early twentieth century they would just blame the jews.

**4matic** · 01-17-2020, 01:10 PM

SPY annualized return since the 2000 peak is around 5%. 10% from the 2018 peak.

**4matic** · 01-17-2020, 01:41 PM

Market cap of AAPL is equal to the entire Australian stock market.

**jono** · 01-17-2020, 04:28 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

BA is a State Sponsored Enterprise. That's why it has held up. Maybe Elon Musk can start a new aircraft builder.

Wall street et al already took over an aircraft builder. Its name is Boeing.

**iceman** · 01-17-2020, 05:12 PM

Would you crucify us on a cross of gold?

**byates1** · 01-17-2020, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Certainly makes living in a nice ski town or beach place very expensive.

Oh snap.

**shroom** · 01-17-2020, 06:19 PM

Originally Posted by jono

Wall street et al already took over an aircraft builder. Its name is Boeing.

reading into one of my former cio’s made that pretty apparent at the time https://en.everybodywiki.com/Kim_Hammonds

boeing to deutsche bank, the ibm/red hat deal. there’s no way a single IC at red hat respected her in any regard.

edit: i bought BA in the $60s and played swings up to $138. i’m not good at gambling. i thought buy back levels were too high at that point.

**babybear** · 01-17-2020, 06:27 PM

m series jong thinks he's wicked smaht

**jackstraw** · 01-17-2020, 09:06 PM

Originally Posted by babybear

m series jong thinks he's wicked smaht

New economic theory - M series.

**Benny Profane** · 01-17-2020, 10:46 PM

They had plenty of troubles in the early twentieth century, especially after they lost WW1 and were saddled with reparations. Britain and America were much stronger, and together comprised a massive empire that Germany could only envy. Germany was losing population to America. And their economy, hell, the entire state would be shit after WW2 if we weren't generous with the Marshall plan, which was just setting up an economic wall up against Soviet dominated eastern Europe. They do make damn nice cars, though. But their banks suck.

**rideit** · 01-17-2020, 10:48 PM

To ponder:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#e68c04a776bd

**dunfree** · 01-17-2020, 10:57 PM

Brain trust doesn’t see who m-series is? Par for the course.

germany went off rationing before the UK did post ww2. UK economy was shit, compared to the mainland, until they joined the common market.

**Benny Profane** · 01-18-2020, 12:07 AM

Originally Posted by rideit

To ponder:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/william.../#e68c04a776bd

At first I would say, no way our banks would get nailed, but, then again, Jamie Dimon was a big investor in WeWork.

**Dantheman** · 01-21-2020, 12:35 PM

Who has an invested HSA (ideally, through HealthEquity)? Mine is not currently invested but I have enough money in it now that I feel like I should. The goal with investing it would just be to keep up with inflation and not chase big returns. Not losing money is the priority. What's the best strategy here? Looks like I have about 20 various Vanguard funds to choose from.

**skaredshtles** · 01-21-2020, 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by Dantheman

Who has an invested HSA (ideally, through HealthEquity)? Mine is not currently invested but I have enough money in it now that I feel like I should. The goal with investing it would just be to keep up with inflation and not chase big returns. Not losing money is the priority. What's the best strategy here? Looks like I have about 20 various Vanguard funds to choose from.

Probably want to avoid stock funds at this point...

**AdironRider** · 01-21-2020, 12:59 PM

I like the three fund plan as outlined here for stuff like this: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=88005

I assume you have enough in there that this will be a long term play for later in life health expenditures, so can weather a downturn or two prior to your anticipated use without keeping you up at night. Increase/decrease your bond allocation percentage to suit your risk tolerance otherwise.

**El Chupacabra** · 01-21-2020, 01:28 PM

Originally Posted by Dantheman

Who has an invested HSA (ideally, through HealthEquity)? Mine is not currently invested but I have enough money in it now that I feel like I should. The goal with investing it would just be to keep up with inflation and not chase big returns. Not losing money is the priority. What's the best strategy here? Looks like I have about 20 various Vanguard funds to choose from.

I had mine through Health Equity, and selected a Vanguard 500 fund. I changed positions and am no longer HSA-eligible, so when that happened, I moved from Health Equity to Lively -- lower fees, still investment options.

You stated you do not want to "lose money" in the HSA - I assume you mean short term? i.e., you want to have the HSA money available to pay med bills in the next couple of months/years?