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  1. #7976
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,831

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    I know a little bit bout’ bonds and funds. I own several and have traded many others.

  2. #7977
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    PNW
    Posts
    3,870
    I have a SEP mutual fund, with the market being on an (unsustainable) upswing I wanted to take some of the mutual funds and buy Bond funds for a more secure and stable investment. When I started researching the funds, within The Capitol Group, American Funds, I see there's even a fair amount of risk in Bond funds. I thought bonds were super stable, dopes the fact it's in a fund and not a stand alone bond change the volatility? Is it a good investment to move a SEP to Bond fund?

  3. #7978
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Posts
    2,836
    The experts know more, but in a nutshell: you're thinking of bonds, not bond funds. Funds go up and down with the market value of their bonds, whereas if you buy a bond and think only about the promised payout (on the day you bought it) you can hold it to maturity for the expected stability.

    Per Bromo: treasuries and chill.

  4. #7979
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,408
    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    WeWork Co-Founder Has Cashed Out at Least $700 Million Via Sales, Loans - WSJ

    God bless. Should’ve pulled twice that amount out.
    Out of thin air. Alchemists.

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  5. #7980
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,831
    Quote Originally Posted by k2skier112 View Post
    I have a SEP mutual fund, with the market being on an (unsustainable) upswing I wanted to take some of the mutual funds and buy Bond funds for a more secure and stable investment. When I started researching the funds, within The Capitol Group, American Funds, I see there's even a fair amount of risk in Bond funds. I thought bonds were super stable, dopes the fact it's in a fund and not a stand alone bond change the volatility? Is it a good investment to move a SEP to Bond fund?
    Bond funds generally have a stable duration which is basically the average maturity of the bond. For example BND has an average duration of 6 years and an average maturity of 8 years. The managers will continue to buy bonds as others mature and roll off so the maturity and duration will largely always be the same meaning your fund never matures. Because of that the value of the fund will fluctuate daily roughly the amount of the average duration bond in the portfolio:


    BND:

    Characteristics
    as of 06/30/2019


    Number of bonds
    8566

    Average effective maturity
    8.2 years

    Average duration
    6.0 years


    Yield to maturity
    2.5%

    The advantage to a bond fund is liquidity, active management, and constant duration with an element of laddering. The problem is you will always have principle risk as you own the fund because if never matures. Bond funds generally fluctuate less than individual bonds on a daily basis because of the blended maturity. The also pay dividends monthly.

    Advantage to Individual bonds is they are less risky for principal in that if you hold them to term you get all your money back. The disadvantage to individual bonds is liquidity, expense (sometimes), and your duration expires so you have to find a substitute when the bonds expire.

    So bond funds have an element of equity risk in their fluctuating principal.

    Also, you can get bond funds that use leverage. They are quite common. When you use leverage you obviously increase yield but also increase principal risk and volatility.

  6. #7981
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,408

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  7. #7982
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
    Posts
    2,702
    Tomorrow we see how the markets react when the Uber decade ends.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  8. #7983
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Posts
    5,129
    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    Tomorrow we see how the markets react when the Uber decade ends.
    Markets just a giant short volatility algorithm at this point. Everyone is either automated or passive. The only thing that will generate selling is selling. Nobody off the short vol+ passive program TO short or sell.

    edit to add expl. https://twitter.com/Barton_options/s...96883581628427
    Last edited by Bromontane; 07-30-2019 at 12:38 PM.

  9. #7984
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,831

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Game on. Market has fed by the balls now if vol picks up

  10. #7985
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    SE USA
    Posts
    2,025
    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    Haven't you heard?
    yes

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    No one is buying mutual funds anymore. It's been proven countless times that it is impossible to beat the market consistently, so index funds
    an index fund isn't a mutual fund ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Kevo View Post
    VBTLX
    that's what I needed

    thx
    "Can't you see..."

  11. #7986
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    46,992
    Quote Originally Posted by Marshall Tucker View Post
    an index fund isn't a mutual fund ?
    Yeah I was scratching my head at his comment a little, an index fund is definitely a mutual fund.

  12. #7987
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    PRB
    Posts
    21,337
    It is a mutual fund, but it is a subset that is different. He means actively managed funds.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin

  13. #7988
    Join Date
    Dec 2012
    Posts
    9,278
    Perhaps he's just confused on active vs. passive funds.
    "timberridge is terminally vapid" -- a fortune cookie in Yueyang

  14. #7989
    Join Date
    Sep 2001
    Location
    The Cone of Uncertainty
    Posts
    46,992
    Nobody goes there any more, it's too crowded.

  15. #7990
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    SE USA
    Posts
    2,025
    Quote Originally Posted by Danno View Post
    It is a mutual fund,
    BINGO
    "Can't you see..."

  16. #7991
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,831
    10y bouncing along 1.95%. Looks like another leg lower.

    Edit: Spoke too soon.. 1.89% now. Not too far from all time low

  17. #7992
    Join Date
    Aug 2004
    Location
    New Haven Line heading north
    Posts
    2,702
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    10y bouncing along 1.95%. Looks like another leg lower.

    Edit: Spoke too soon.. 1.89% now. Not too far from all time low
    “I will get that extra 25bps if I have to take the economy straight to hell!!” - Orange Jesus.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  18. #7993
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    2,310
    ^^^Where is the like button?

    It’s like watching the don(ald) talk to the police about letting a friend go.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  19. #7994
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Location
    Posts
    5,129
    Dollar index has been really strong so I see the cut as more an effort to placate interests of the eurodollar/USD-denominated foreign debt markets than anything domestic. Ofc this is against a backdrop of QE-induced asset price distortions that keep putting more distance between winners & losers.

  20. #7995
    Join Date
    Dec 2005
    Location
    STL
    Posts
    8,633

    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by k2skier112 View Post
    I have a SEP mutual fund, with the market being on an (unsustainable) upswing I wanted to take some of the mutual funds and buy Bond funds for a more secure and stable investment. When I started researching the funds, within The Capitol Group, American Funds, I see there's even a fair amount of risk in Bond funds. I thought bonds were super stable, dopes the fact it's in a fund and not a stand alone bond change the volatility? Is it a good investment to move a SEP to Bond fund?
    You need to look up “duration”. The longer the maturities in your mutual fund the more sensitive it is to interest rate moves. Mutual funds generally blow in all regards, especially taxes.

    But buying individual bonds, you’re also getting ripped off. The dealers all scalp them 5 times first before they make into the retail books.

    Bonds are one the the few cases where’s I’d pay a separate account manager if I had alot of dough. They buy in size, so you get the close to the actual coupon, but you actually own the individual paper.

    Call PIMCO or Black Rock yourself if you have 10mm or more. Skip Advisor douches.




    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  21. #7996
    Join Date
    Feb 2004
    Location
    Loveland, Chair 9.
    Posts
    3,728
    as of today, if you stayed fully investing in the s+p index, you have made less than 1% from its October 2018 high, that's approximately 10 months.

    could turn around tomorrow on some rumor but given august and September are historically the worst two months for the stock market; quite easy to see the return October 2018 to October 2019 being zero.
    Eat em up Houston Cougars !

  22. #7997
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Big in Japan
    Posts
    36,408
    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    as of today, if you stayed fully investing in the s+p index, you have made less than 1% from its October 2018 high, that's approximately 10 months.

    could turn around tomorrow on some rumor but given august and September are historically the worst two months for the stock market; quite easy to see the return October 2018 to October 2019 being zero.
    You ever hear of dividends?

    Let's do some livin'
    After, we die

  23. #7998
    Join Date
    Dec 2016
    Location
    In a van... down by the river
    Posts
    3,914
    Quote Originally Posted by SkiCougar View Post
    as of today, if you stayed fully investing in the s+p index, you have made less than 1% from its October 2018 high, that's approximately 10 months.

    could turn around tomorrow on some rumor but given august and September are historically the worst two months for the stock market; quite easy to see the return October 2018 to October 2019 being zero.
    <picks some arbitrary dates that fits some biased narrative>

    Well gosh... gollee... look at that. You're right. So what would you suggest? Bitcoin?


  24. #7999
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    14,831
    Yuan down 1.2% tonight. Fresh 7 year low 7.1 USD. US 10Y 1.79%.

  25. #8000
    Join Date
    Mar 2012
    Location
    The Bull City
    Posts
    4,330
    Gun and ammo sales ought to be strong this week. Will stocks reflect the bump? Trade war might push everything else down though..
    Go that way really REALLY fast. If something gets in your way, TURN!

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