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  1. #7851
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    It’s interesting to note that Xi & CCP leadership believe that the downfall of the Soviet Union was allowing western liberalization to take root. So believing that the CCP will evolve beyond anything more than an authoritarian regime is an exercise in futility.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  2. #7852
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    4matic, the closeted shill for the Chinese Communist Party, recommends buying Chinese equities on a dip. A shocking turn of events.

    Attachment 292988



    Maybe two or three firms out there that can do it reliably. The rest is beta chasing & being fooled by randomness. A book just came out on Simons actually... should be interesting.

    https://www.amazon.com/Man-Who-Solve.../dp/B07P1NNTSD
    Eh, I'm sure if you pick some boring stuff with relatively high volume that's not tweet-based and you can ride other indicators pretty well. The main problem is likely that after a certain point it becomes hard to hide and other algos pick up on it.

  3. #7853
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    /\Another excellent contrary indicator.

    Shanghai 1 yr: +10%

    SP500 1 yr: -1%
    Put it all on red there, smart guy, and get back to us in five years.

  4. #7854
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    Something I never thought I would see...once in a blue moon, there is too much bullsh!t for Wall Street.

    WeWorkÂ’s IPO pricing will likely be 1/2 itÂ’s last private valuation.

    Tough week for SoftBank.
    Charlie, here comes the deuce. And when you speak of me, speak well.

  5. #7855
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    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    China's really amazing when you think about it. FXI is a multi-billion dollar large-cap Chinese ETF that's designed to reflect the equity of large-cap Chinese equities (Ten-Cent, China Mobile, Constr Bank, etc.). And we're told very clearly by the CCP that China has grown at an average clip of 7+%/yr for the last decade-plus. And yet, FXI has gone nowhere in that time despite an economy that has allegedly grown by 75%.

    Is there a man alive who believes anything the CCP says? Aside from our resident CCP family attache, 4matic.
    You used to have sone original thought. Now it’s just spookesque dogma.

    China has executed thousands of white collar criminals for lie and cheat. Not that I agree with that but otoh how many Wall Street bankers served time for GFC fraud? Zero? With death as a real consequence of fraud I suspect there are real businesses and earnings in PRC. The SOE’s aren’t a lot different than our own subsidized industries.

    Growth is growth. Buying a weak market with a weak currency and growth is just a contrarian play I like to make sometimes.

    I like EWA around this level too.

    I’m also thinking about adding to my Treasury Bonds on this pull back.

    Edit: I guess around 60 people served time for GFC crimes in USA.

  6. #7856
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    Something I never thought I would see...once in a blue moon, there is too much bullsh!t for Wall Street.

    WeWorkÂ’s IPO pricing will likely be 1/2 itÂ’s last private valuation.

    Tough week for SoftBank.
    It wouldn’t surprise me if it gets pulled.

  7. #7857
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    You used to have sone original thought. Now it’s just spookesque dogma.

    China has executed thousands of white collar criminals for lie and cheat. Not that I agree with that but otoh how many Wall Street bankers served time for GFC fraud? Zero? With death as a real consequence of fraud I suspect there are real businesses and earnings in PRC. The SOE’s aren’t a lot different than our own subsidized industries.

    Growth is growth. Buying a weak market with a weak currency and growth is just a contrarian play I like to make sometimes.

    I like EWA around this level too.

    I’m also thinking about adding to my Treasury Bonds on this pull back.

    Edit: I guess around 60 people served time for GFC crimes in USA.
    Jiang Zemin used to look at powerplant utilization to get a read on how his own economy was performing. Has China grown? Absolutely. Is it what CCP says? Incredibly doubtful.
    The white collar criminals were executed for screwing over the wrong people, not screwing over people.

  8. #7858
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    nothing more pathetic than a wannabe legitimizing corruption so he can join the club.

    just compare returns for the SOE to growth and it's clearly the Chinese numbers are bullshit. Yes, it's grown, hugely. That's not debateable. What is debateable is the quality of growth and the future prospects.
    Last edited by dunfree ; 09-05-2019 at 09:08 PM.

  9. #7859
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    The bigger the base, the higher in space.

  10. #7860
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    WE now down around valuation of $12/$15B. And they are still trying to shove this through the pipeline.

    I guess if it gets pulled it will never get another shot at the public $ apple.

    Matt Levine made a good point about companies getting private money or public money. You don’t get both. And SV and it’s tech unicorns are learning that right now.

  11. #7861
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stu Gotz View Post
    WE now down around valuation of $12/$15B. And they are still trying to shove this through the pipeline.

    I guess if it gets pulled it will never get another shot at the public $ apple.

    Matt Levine made a good point about companies getting private money or public money. You don’t get both. And SV and it’s tech unicorns are learning that right now.
    Public investors are becoming more discerning about the types of shit they are willing to be fed. Must mean there's a market correction incoming.

  12. #7862
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    Can anyone explain to me what's going on in the bond market in basic terms. I know diddly squat about the bond market, but it sounds like things are getting worrisome and will eventually impact equities. It would be helpful to get an understanding of when and how equities might be impacted.

    Also, some folks I listen to say "the bond market is the best predictor of economic health" - agree or disagree and how does that apply to what's going on now?
    another Handsome Boy graduate

  13. #7863
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    ^Yep. This on the debt / bond market.

    We are really in uncharted territory especially globally. Different countries are working in different ways to make things best for them.

    China pegs the yuan. Japan has had easing for almost 20 yrs and hasn’t recovered due in part to several ongoing issues most recently aging population. USA has been easing for so long (by purchasing treasuries at different maturities) that investors are effectively forced to the equity markets for any return. There is a genuine fear that the US may end up in a long term morass much like japan since we have similar issues with aging baby boomers

    Inverted yield curves have always preceded recession because investors have lost faith in normal long term returns and want their money liquid. There is a joke though that inverted yield curves have predicted 13 of the last 5 recessions, and there is truth in that humor.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  14. #7864
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    Quote Originally Posted by Platinum Pete View Post
    Can anyone explain to me what's going on in the bond market in basic terms. I know diddly squat about the bond market, but it sounds like things are getting worrisome and will eventually impact equities. It would be helpful to get an understanding of when and how equities might be impacted.

    Also, some folks I listen to say "the bond market is the best predictor of economic health" - agree or disagree and how does that apply to what's going on now?
    It’s a 40 year downtrend in long term rates. That’s a hard trend to break.

    I bought Treasury Bonds on Wednesday and Friday last week. 35% of assets. I am 95% long bonds now. I bought the other 60% last November.

    For now the whole position is a trade. My expectation is for more all time lows in the 10’s and 30’s and much lower yields in the shorter notes. Yes it is a very risky trade.

    The long term relationship between bonds and equity has been absolutely direct for the last 40 years. Lower rates>higher equity and that probably won’t change but if equity turns lower for longer that might also change.

    Can other factors affect one or the other? Sure. Absolutely.

    Trend growth is 2%. Imo we borrowed from trend growth with poorly directed fiscal stimulus and there will be a period of less than trend growth.

    Reaction to Fed this week, not what they do, is critical to my “trade”.

    I went longer duration because I think money rates are going to fall.

  15. #7865
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    ^
    Inverted yield curves have always preceded recession because investors have lost faith in normal long term returns and want their money liquid. There is a joke though that inverted yield curves have predicted 13 of the last 5 recessions, and there is truth in that humor.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    I’ve never heard that joke.

    Some history of yield inversion

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...d-yield-curves

    Although. The curve has been flat for so long I’m not sure historical relationships are valid.

  16. #7866
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    So what does it all mean? Say, hypothetically, you are going to getting a large check this week from selling an investment property or something. Where do you put the money? We are talking nest egg, pay for college, ~30% of your net worth kind of money.

  17. #7867
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    Not an RIA and just my personal opinion: keep it as cash for now as long as you won’t spend it. You won’t earn anything but there’s too many unknowns right now.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums

  18. #7868
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    Not an RIA and just my personal opinion: keep it as cash for now as long as you won’t spend it. You won’t earn anything but there’s too many unknowns right now.


    Sent from my iPhone using TGR Forums
    Where would one park a ton of cash? MM? CDs? Savings?

  19. #7869
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    Quote Originally Posted by mtnwriter View Post
    Not an RIA and just my personal opinion: keep it as cash for now as long as you won’t spend it. You won’t earn anything but there’s too many unknowns right now.
    Normally I'd say index funds, but at the moment I'd say something safe that earns a little bit of interest.
    "fuck off you asshat gaper shit for brains fucktard wanker." - Jesus Christ
    "She was tossing her bean salad with the vigor of a Drunken Pop princess so I walked out of the corner and said.... "need a hand?"" - Odin
    "everybody's got their hooks into you, fuck em....forge on motherfuckers, drag all those bitches across the goal line with you." - (not so) ill-advised strategy

  20. #7870
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    @mcsquared
    Money Market Fund gives you way better liquidity than a CD, low risk, and keeps up with inflation way better than a savings account.
    If you want a certified financial adviser, I can recommend a good trustworthy one in Denver.
    Quote Originally Posted by blurred
    skiing is hiking all day so that you can ski on shitty gear for 5 minutes.

  21. #7871
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    Quote Originally Posted by PassTheDutchie View Post
    Where would one park a ton of cash? MM? CDs? Savings?
    Vanguard MM is a bit over 2% (a little bit more than online savings accounts), some CDs are around 2.5-3.5%.

    On the "where to put it" concept and whether you would want to use index funds or stay in cash: depends on your needs (long term investment vs short term spending) and investment strategy. Otherwise you are just trying to time the market.
    Quote Originally Posted by powder11 View Post
    if you have to resort to taking advice from the nitwits on this forum, then you're doomed.

  22. #7872
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    Sounds like a bunch of people could use an actual financial adviser...

  23. #7873
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcsquared View Post
    So what does it all mean? Say, hypothetically, you are going to getting a large check this week from selling an investment property or something. Where do you put the money? We are talking nest egg, pay for college, ~30% of your net worth kind of money.
    My parents found a credit union that gave them 4% on up to $50k. Could be worth looking around.

  24. #7874
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    Quote Originally Posted by PassTheDutchie View Post
    Where would one park a ton of cash? MM? CDs? Savings?
    Bitcoin. Duh.

  25. #7875
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bromontane View Post
    See??

    I told you!


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