Is the stock market going to tank?

[Micol]

using my jacket research to interpret micro example of IP theft and currency manipulation

1) Ip theft*
I went to a major sourcing event in Las Vegas in about 2016. There was a factory rep booth from China with a sample of one of my competitors branded ski pants hanging in their booth. They made them. I told them I did not have any patterns and wanted to make that exact ski pant. That exact pattern. They said no problem. Give them the order and they would supply that pattern since they had it in their possession. I know that the brand had their own contract pattern maker. While garments cannot be patented, patterns are copyrighted and considered ip the same as an architect's drawings.

2) currency manipulation
Same event. I visited with probably 5-8 different booths representing China manufacturers who produced ski wear. Every single booth said the price of a fully seam taped jacket, (really almost any jacket including 3 in 1 zip in fleece to shell types) were $25 ea total, Minimum order is 1000 units. I thought this to be odd, in that 3 in 1 jackets were actually 2 jackets and double fabric and labor. From my experience sourcing in the USA, I know that they were selling the entire garment for less than it cost to buy just the materials from manufacturers domestically (fabric, zippers) . [ *The fabric and zippers they offered were generic but knocked off brands such as YKK (another ip and patent issue in and of itself)]. The missing components still to account for in their pricing were a) more materials b) labor c) their profit.

Watching the above British accented voice from China reminds me that actions speak louder than words.

[4matic]

US companies steal IP from themselves every day. Apple lost this case:

"Qualcomm says that Apple has been stealing its wireless technology for several years in order to eventually rid itself of the need to rely on Qualcomm components. Apple is alleged to have given Qualcomm’s code to Intel, in order to boost Intel’s modem speeds, which are known to be slower."

[Micol]

US companies steal IP from themselves every day. Apple lost this case:

"Qualcomm says that Apple has been stealing its wireless technology for several years in order to eventually rid itself of the need to rely on Qualcomm components. Apple is alleged to have given Qualcomm’s code to Intel, in order to boost Intel’s modem speeds, which are known to be slower."

yeah but at least there is a legal process to address and possibly gain a reprieve against a theft

[4matic]

True capitalism is nihilist. It has to be.

[4matic]

I'm starting to think the 'big trade' you made to set you up for life was marrying a CCP member. There is nothing true or capitalist about communist statecraft.

GF was never a CP member and likes Trump. Thinks China is liar and cheat.

Blame is a fools game in all this. Regulate domestically. We allowed these companies to sell out and now we blame the host.

[4matic]

I make my own judgements and opportunities. The idea that one is more complicit than the other doesn’t weigh my decisions.

Somebody wins. Somebody loses.

GF is US citizen fwiw. Homeowner. Runs a business.


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[Micol]

GF is US citizen fwiw. Homeowner. Runs a business.


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does she have a sister?

[4matic]

does she have a sister?

A couple of hot nieces are always looking. Gf always trying to hook up her friends.

Her other two sisters are considerably older and both are party members but nonetheless pretty cool.
Middle sister drives a Hummer in China and does business all over Asia.

[dunfree]

Patent infringement as the example of US company stealing? What a bullshitter.
The example to use is Lewandowski, who straight up stole if charges are to be believed and was arrested and is going to trial for theft. That's the difference between China and the US - ones charged and facing stiff jail time, in China it's a promotion and a pat on the back from the quasi-government employer.

"not a party member, but the relatives are party members", lol.

[4matic]

"not a party member, but the relatives are party members", lol.

Depends when you were born. Membership is no longer mandatory, in fact, only 90m people are card carrying members. It’s not much different than having a rep or dem in the same house.

[4matic]

For reference, I have never visited China, never plan to visit China, and have zero desire to visit.


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[4matic]

So you're not a member, you just play one on the internet.

You’re no different than anyone else speculating on truth. You’re starting to act more and more like spook with with snarky know it all comments.

Who told you for months rates were going a lot lower?

You still holding that shit bag of small cap?

[Micol]

A couple of hot nieces are always looking. Gf always trying to hook up her friends.

Her other two sisters are considerably older and both are party members but nonetheless pretty cool.
Middle sister drives a Hummer in China and does business all over Asia.

im interested
not sure if ski bum fits their dating objectives tho....

[4matic]

I'm inclined to buy China equity on any further weakness here. You get a weak currency and weak valuation. I typically like that combo as contrarian. Maybe around 7.5 CNY

[dunfree]

It’s not much different than having a rep or dem in the same house.

that's dumb even for you and your stan routine. the CCP began rolling out their dystopian hell hole 10 years ago and everyone said it was just the muslims because they were a problem. now they are coming for Hong Kong, mainlands next. And they won't stop at the borders.

the trouble now is 1) people are slow to wake up, especially because rich westerners were almost always treated far better than average in china & so bought in to the great delusion that business did not serve the ends of the CCP (and therefore the state). Xi's shown that delusion bullshit 2)Trumps an idiot that doesn't GAF about democracy or freedoms 3) Trump wants to frame it on racial lines, or at least some of his staff do. The latter 2 give a decent hand to the Chinese.

[4matic]

im interested
not sure if ski bum fits their dating objectives tho....

Youngest niece is easy but she has a kid and doesn't like work. Oldest niece is Australia educated but has some baggage and is medicated for depression. I'll shoot you some leads if they come up. I meet tourist ladies all the time.

[4matic]

I thought we were talking about Chinese statecraft. Too ignorant or compromised to participate? Need to change subject to calls that worked & didn't work? Challenged mind needs to cull the subject matter to stay afloat?

You're a CCP shill. Enough said.

Jibberish. The attack on Huawei by USA is state sponsored attempt to claw back control of 5G technology. We already lost AI to China.

[dunfree]

Jibberish. The attack on Huawei by USA is state sponsored

Huawei is a state sponsored thief of US technology. Has been stealing for 10+ years. Far more than just 5G. Open your eyes.

[schuss]

China has huge AI investments, but most of it has come out of Microsoft research alums from the center there. They're using it more there, but I think Google is still multiple steps ahead of everyone else.
The running joke in data science/tech is: "of all AI grads in top programs, 50% go work at Google and everyone else fights over the other 50%"

[Benny Profane]

I'm inclined to buy China equity on any further weakness here. You get a weak currency and weak valuation. I typically like that combo as contrarian. Maybe around 7.5 CNY

Haha. China equity. Yeah, smart, lots of rule of law governing that market. Haha.

[4matic]

dunfree and bro are the same duo that jabber about the evil and fraud of Tesla. I just don't believe anything presented to us as valid fact. That skepticism has served me well. How many in the news thought 10Y note was going back to all time lows? Here we are..

With regard to Treasury we are at an inflection point. My instinct tells me much lower rates but I have to be realistic about external resistance. Ideally I'd like to see US equity have a stumble to set up an opportunity in China and Asia EEM.

[Toadman]

That's all well and good, but what's AI's prediction for the stock market?

[4matic]

Haha. China equity. Yeah, smart, lots of rule of law governing that market. Haha.

/\Another excellent contrary indicator.

Shanghai 1 yr: +10%

SP500 1 yr: -1%

[schuss]

That's all well and good, but what's AI's prediction for the stock market?

It's hard to model inconsistently irrational behavior.

[dunfree]

I just don't believe anything presented to us as valid fact.

who's "us" ratbox on a lamppost?

chinese equity market is gambling, have at it. just don't pretend it's fundamentals.