Is the stock market going to tank?

**iceman** · 12-26-2018, 12:32 AM

Originally Posted by tbssux

If you break down CT voters by income, you'd likely find wealthier CT voters going for Trump, lower income voters going for Hillary.

It's definitely not that simple in CT, the numbers are out there but a quick look suggests the opposite of what you say may be true.

Lots of data here but more focused on trends than raw results: https://trendct.org/2016/11/15/what-...t-connecticut/

Clinton won Greenwich and Fairfield county: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/20...ts/connecticut

"you'd likely find" is weak sauce. The data is available.

**Cdubmpdx** · 12-26-2018, 12:42 AM

Originally Posted by iceman

"you'd likely find" is weak sauce. The data is available.

Nothing drives me more crazy than a speculative comment based on opinion and zero fact. It's the reason we are in this mess in the first place. Everybody thinks they know the answer because their intuition says it's right.

American people need to take some accountability and stop blaming the political figures we have made into idols.

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**tbssux** · 12-26-2018, 01:00 AM

Originally Posted by Cdubmpdx

Nothing drives me more crazy than a speculative comment based on opinion and zero fact. It's the reason we are in this mess in the first place. Everybody thinks they know the answer because their intuition says it's right.

American people need to take some accountability and stop blaming the political figures we have made into idols.

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Here is the data:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ons-by-income/

Nationally, top four brackets went for Trump. Bottom two brackets went for Hillary. Overall point remains: wealthy who voted for Trump for tax cuts and are getting hit in the markets are reaping their just rewards right now (CT anomalies aside).

**Benny Profane** · 12-26-2018, 04:17 AM

You sound like your mind is set on this matter, but, I'll try one more time. You're basing your argument on exit polls, which are not as solid or "fact based" as the actual electoral results. I mean, has anyone ever come up to you and asked you how you voted on election day? (You did vote, did you?) They're about as reliable as phone surveys. Small samples. The final results on election night were pretty clear , and even in some red states, the wealthier cities and counties went blue, generally speaking, and the poorer rural areas went red. Sure, plenty of the upper middle class to the rich voted Trump, but, c'mon , that wasn't and isn't his base.

**Cono Este** · 12-26-2018, 06:08 AM

Wrong thread jongs

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**liv2ski** · 12-26-2018, 09:54 AM

BTFD you guyz. The President has said it is bargain time for stockz.

**Benny Profane** · 12-26-2018, 09:59 AM

Holy shit, the market is really going south with him saying that.

**liv2ski** · 12-26-2018, 11:48 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Holy shit, the market is really going south with him saying that.

I am confused by your comment Benny. DOW up 500 at the moment. Is it TPPT buying up all the Stokz?

**skibrd** · 12-26-2018, 12:05 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

China definitely has a social issue with the ratio of men to women. They have relaxed the one child policy. But it has created an issue over the past decades with the favoring of a male child over a female child. That seems to be held in check by the communist gov't.

When it comes to infrastructure, well the USA screwed the pooch with that one. The US lags big time when it comes to logistics efficiencies, Our ports? I don't think you have any clue in regards to how bad the US measures on through put with the modern ports in Europe and Asia. I spent 27 years of my career dealing with the bullshit that is the US port and rail infrastructure. I'll give you the short version; the US is waaay behind. ILA and ILWU unions have neutered attempts at getting a more efficient system. Class 1 railroads have done little in the way of upgrading their networks. Sure, Buffett has snagged a oligopoly class 1 BNSF company. He was smart. He knew he could get good returns with an inefficient company like the BNSF, because there isn't much competition. Our wonderful FTC and DOT hosed the US business community with the mergers of BN and SF along with the UP and SP.

China does have issues. I met with a economics analyst from Hong Kong a few weeks back, and he advised us of some of the internal issues that Xi is dealing with. GDP in China is fundamentally built on 3 pillars. Middle class spending, which is restrained now based on Trump's trade war. #2 asset growth. That's been curtailed also due to Trump's trade war. And 3rd RE appreciation. That has stalled. So, China too is seeing it's economic growth threatened. Over 500 companies that are affiliated with the auto industry have been allowed to fail by the Communist Chinese gov't. Xi si going to back communist gov't industries and companies Xi has also locked down on capital out flows. There are numerous Chinese owned factories that have opened up in 3rd world SE Asian countries. Xi has basically told those companies they have to make it on their own merits, and there will be no RMB (Yuan) allowed to flow out of China to support this companies.

Anyone who has been to mainland China lately will see the conspicuous consumption. That's being curtailed The emerging middle class are not too happy with the wealth of the connected show casing that wealth. I can say from my last trip to Shanghai how different it is from several years ago. The communist ideology can't coexist with capitalism. Xi will have to figure out how to do that tap dance for China to grow without social unrest in the future.

As for the stock market. I have no idea what the future holds. We have a very unpredictable POTUS in the WH.

I know ILA and ILWU came to an agreement with the Port of Seattle where for every job that is replaced by automation, a job must be created to support that automation. Now saying that. US ports longshoremen are way behind their Asian counterparts. I think that’s mostly based on the union contracts (as a member of a sub-branch of ILWU I’ll also call them out and say their worth ethic is lacking compared to their Asian counterparts).

The infrastructure issue, from a merchant marine standpoint, is due to lack of use and demand for better systems. The US does not have the demand on the systems China does so we have been able to get by with what we have. Does our infrastructure need serious upgrading to be sustainable for the next 10/50/100 years, yes, but it works.

If we were to triple (or quadruple) the population of the US, then we would need high speed trains, upgrades to the rail system, same with highways and ports, but we don’t, so what we have works. China supplies the world with material goods, and to move the people and goods around the country, the had to build better infrastructure.

Unless there is a major change in world economics, the money and support for major advancements in US infrastructure probably won’t be there for a long time.

**Cono Este** · 12-26-2018, 12:08 PM

I remember all those fancy new highways when I toured China, only there were people in horse and cart going the wrong way.

Fuck that place.

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**char_** · 12-26-2018, 12:25 PM

China also just built most of their infrastructure in the last what 20 years? It makes total sense that it is modern and ours is outdated, because we built alot of ours a long time ago.

We just aren't investing in maintaining or upgrading that infrastructure.

**Toadman** · 12-26-2018, 03:13 PM

Originally Posted by skibrd

I know ILA and ILWU came to an agreement with the Port of Seattle where for every job that is replaced by automation, a job must be created to support that automation. Now saying that. US ports longshoremen are way behind their Asian counterparts. I think that’s mostly based on the union contracts (as a member of a sub-branch of ILWU I’ll also call them out and say their worth ethic is lacking compared to their Asian counterparts).

The infrastructure issue, from a merchant marine standpoint, is due to lack of use and demand for better systems. The US does not have the demand on the systems China does so we have been able to get by with what we have. Does our infrastructure need serious upgrading to be sustainable for the next 10/50/100 years, yes, but it works.

If we were to triple (or quadruple) the population of the US, then we would need high speed trains, upgrades to the rail system, same with highways and ports, but we don’t, so what we have works. China supplies the world with material goods, and to move the people and goods around the country, the had to build better infrastructure.

Not sure where to start. True PoS came to an agreement that one current inefficient, obsolete ILWU job gets removed to create another ILWU job for the automation that other ports like Rotterdam and Singapore and several other ports in Asia and Europe automated over a decade ago. Just look at the ILWU tools down at T6 in PDX. Those SOB's shot themselves in both feet for their stupidity. They still get paid for doing virtually nothing. I dealt with the ILWU on a first hand basis. I left because I couldn't handle the lack of accountability and the stress of dealing with 40 something and 50 somethings making more than me, with better benefits, yet bitched about the work. (I digress!)

Talk to the truckers who sit in line for hours to get 1 cntr or drop off a cntr. Tell me it works. Sorry, I don't think you know what you are talking about. The ports are maxed out on space, and they aren't meant to be a storage yard, but they have one ripple in the supply chain, vsl bunching from a storm, same goes for the RR's and they are screwed for days on end trying to service the trains and vsls.

The RR's need to continue double tracking choke points, and at least they have been able to make strides in computerized set ups for better tracking of train schedules. Getting by with what we have is a woeful excuse. The current mentality of the US Federal gov't is don't fix it until it breaks. A little PM (preventive maint.) now and again might do wonders.

I guess some people drive their cars until they break down on the road, and others spend the money to maintain them and get 20 years and 250k out of them. The mindset of the US Politicians seem to be of the former mindset.

I guess in the end, you are correct in saying that their isn't support for capital spending on infrastructure. If it ain't broke, wait 'til it does, then spend as little as possible to get it limping along again.

**SumJongGuy** · 12-26-2018, 03:57 PM

Originally Posted by Toadman

I guess some people drive their cars until they break down on the road, and others spend the money to maintain them and get 20 years and 250k out of them. The mindset of the US Politicians seem to be of the former mindset.

I guess in the end, you are correct in saying that their isn't support for capital spending on infrastructure. If it ain't broke, wait 'til it does, then spend as little as possible to get it limping along again.

"Patch and Pray"

**wooley12** · 12-26-2018, 04:24 PM

Always remember when you saw the commercials of Domino's fixing the roads. Business will do what we can be convinced that government can't. At a profit for a profit.

**tbssux** · 12-26-2018, 05:28 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

You sound like your mind is set on this matter, but, I'll try one more time. You're basing your argument on exit polls, which are not as solid or "fact based" as the actual electoral results. I mean, has anyone ever come up to you and asked you how you voted on election day? (You did vote, did you?) They're about as reliable as phone surveys. Small samples. The final results on election night were pretty clear , and even in some red states, the wealthier cities and counties went blue, generally speaking, and the poorer rural areas went red. Sure, plenty of the upper middle class to the rich voted Trump, but, c'mon , that wasn't and isn't his base.

Exit polls would actually further the point. Would wealthy/educated people (especially women) want to admit they voted for Trump?

The data don't lie. And urban areas went blue due to a lot demograhoic groups besides wealthy voters. Wealthy folks wanted tax cuts (and some also wanted tariffs and de regulation) and voted against long term growth. It's going to be a very interesting 2019.

**4matic** · 12-26-2018, 05:39 PM

8% range in the stock futures today.

**Cono Este** · 12-26-2018, 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

8% range in the stock futures today.

Amazing. Vix barely came in

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**Benny Profane** · 12-28-2018, 08:56 AM

This is pretty pathetic, especially considering that it's pretty much directly related to the tax cut. Death convulsions of capitalism.

https://slate.com/business/2018/12/a...ent-chart.html

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**SkiCougar** · 12-28-2018, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by liv2ski

BTFD you guyz. The President has said it is bargain time for stockz.

for the short term yes, longer term no. it went straight down and hit the 20% line on the s+p and bounced into now a reflexive rally imo. the fib retracement levels are 2515, 2585 and 2615. personally, i'm hoping it makes 2615 to be able to short the mkt again.

it's more the fed with rates and QT and earnings projections lowered than trump sending things south, although the trade talk doesn't help him; but given the usa fed and ecb have no intentions of letting up for at least 2 more months, to see it go 20-25% down from the top is more likely than a reversal much over 2600.

**Bunion 2020** · 12-28-2018, 11:24 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

This is pretty pathetic, especially considering that it's pretty much directly related to the tax cut. Death convulsions of capitalism.

https://slate.com/business/2018/12/a...ent-chart.html

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Thanks, that made me smile.

**4matic** · 12-28-2018, 02:25 PM

Test of the breakdown and resistance at 2530. Looks pretty good.

**Cono Este** · 12-28-2018, 07:22 PM

Originally Posted by 4matic

Test of the breakdown and resistance at 2530. Looks pretty good.

Marking yr end.

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**4matic** · 01-02-2019, 05:55 PM

I sold some BOND today to raise a little cash. Looks like a day early...

These moves in currency and rates tonight are remarkable.

Currency always leads.

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**Stu Gotz** · 01-02-2019, 07:32 PM

Apple just pre announced an abysmal 4Q.

FAANG giveth, and FAANG taketh away.

**CascadeLuke** · 01-02-2019, 11:41 PM

Originally Posted by Canesfootball

These guys have a great handle on what is going on globally and how the banking system works.
https://www.alhambrapartners.com/commentaryanalysis/

When guys like Drunkenmiller are saying the market is only going to return 0 to 5% per year for the next 5+ years you need to pay attention. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...nterview-video

Appreciate the info/post. Watched the whole interview