Is the stock market going to tank?

**Cono Este** · 12-24-2018, 04:24 PM

From the sounds of things, reality is just beginning to set in for many. Capitulation may not be far, plus a good spike in Vol will seal the deal.

But god damn, even then, this mkt is still up so much. In 2008 capitulation took us back 10 yrs.

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**4matic** · 12-24-2018, 04:33 PM

Originally Posted by SumJongGuy

Is that new, and does it apply to all 401Ks?

Not new. Always been there. All 401K's. Although, not all 401k offer loans.

Note: I forgot that 401k loan interest payments get taxed twice so not exactly like a Roth.

**Benny Profane** · 12-24-2018, 06:07 PM

Originally Posted by Stu Gotz

What in the absolute fuck is the Treasury secretary doing publicly disclosing that he is calling the major US banks to check on liquidity?

When the Trump movie(s) is/are made, a priceless scene will be Munchin phoning, first, the boss and taking his shit at high volume while he listens on speaker phone in Cabo in his speedo, and then, all coked up, thinks it's a good idea to do this call, this don't worry, liquidity is endless, to the bankers. The wife walks into the room after getting banged by two BBCs by the pool and starts whining that she needs another tit job. The old one is sagging.

**Canesfootball** · 12-24-2018, 06:20 PM

Possible but not likely bounce to 2500 after Christmas if we get lucky. Headed to 2189 in the very near term. Then lower once Q4 gdp data comes out, should have a 1 handle. Final lows for this correction should be around 2008 highs

**Benny Profane** · 12-24-2018, 07:18 PM

Originally Posted by MCS5280

How long until I can pick up someone's tricked out #vanlife rig for cheap?

Ha. I love it. Every recession, RVs tank.

**grinch** · 12-24-2018, 07:30 PM

After every oil price bust it’s cheap truck/RV/sled/boat season in Alberta
Bertans are like one day millionaires after they get their welly cheque

**Canesfootball** · 12-24-2018, 07:33 PM

Originally Posted by grinch

After every oil price bust it’s cheap truck/RV/sled/boat season in Alberta

Oil headed to $21 in the next 6 months. Going to be lots of cheap stuff for sale in the oil patch areas

**SumJongGuy** · 12-24-2018, 07:52 PM

Originally Posted by Canesfootball

Oil headed to $21 in the next 6 months. Going to be lots of cheap stuff for sale in the oil patch areas

Gas has been the biggest expense for my day trips and weekenders past 5 years. $1.50/gallon gas would be great next month when I have a couple penciled in on very tight cashflow myself. Just keeping my fingers crossed that the new job isn't in jeopardy in a full bottom drop. Honestly, I feel pretty good about things for both myself and mrs surviving in a bloodbath like this. It's the folks who can't do the heavy lifting but earn high pay on reputation instead of abilities that get thrown overboard when the boat is sinking..

**Benny Profane** · 12-24-2018, 08:07 PM

Originally Posted by Canesfootball

Oil headed to $21 in the next 6 months. Going to be lots of cheap stuff for sale in the oil patch areas

Much more than that. The oil industry is so strung out on cheap debt, they're totally fucked with cheap crude. Could be housing 08 all over again.

Add to that Unicorns like Uber and Lyft living a fantasy off cheap money, and it could be rough. Darwin salivates

**berko** · 12-24-2018, 08:35 PM

It’s an ill wind that doesn’t blow someone some good and should we experience another financial debacle, at least I will be able to take solace in the fact that Benny will be enjoying the hell out of it.

**Benny Profane** · 12-24-2018, 08:54 PM

Originally Posted by berko

It’s an ill wind that doesn’t blow someone some good and should we experience another financial debacle, at least I will be able to take solace in the fact that Benny will be enjoying the hell out of it.

Oh no I won't. What the fuck do you think is paying for my skiing?

Seriously, this was all so avoidable. Then this piece of shit Queens trash gets elected president by people that have no assets. Fuck me.

**berko** · 12-24-2018, 08:59 PM

No shit. Its gonna suck for almost all of us.

Thats why your gleeful posts about it stand out in my mind.

**SumJongGuy** · 12-24-2018, 09:07 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Oh no I won't. What the fuck do you think is paying for my skiing?

Seriously, this was all so avoidable. Then this piece of shit Queens trash gets elected president by people that have no assets. Fuck me.

That piece of shit had plenty of support from all the big lobbies who wanted that tax bill slammed through and signed. Many of them are still protecting 45 and accessories to the treason happening right before our eyes for fear of losing everything they gained the past year including two US Supreme Court justices if it comes out that 45 and his shadow wasn't actually fairly elected. Now they're shitting bricks at the prospect of President Pelosi and the markets are reflecting that anxiety.

**Cono Este** · 12-24-2018, 09:17 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Oh no I won't. What the fuck do you think is paying for my skiing?

Seriously, this was all so avoidable. Then this piece of shit Queens trash gets elected president by people that have no assets. Fuck me.

Free money was being printed since before Obama. We never fixed the problem the first time. Quantitative easing has come home to roost.

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**SumJongGuy** · 12-24-2018, 09:26 PM

**4matic** · 12-24-2018, 09:48 PM

Nikkei down 1000 pts. 5%. 19130. That’s a big move.

**Benny Profane** · 12-24-2018, 11:24 PM

Originally Posted by Cono Este

Free money was being printed since before Obama. We never fixed the problem the first time. Quantitative easing has come home to roost.

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Um, not really. Greenspan dropped rates down to nearly 1% after 9/11 from a normalish 6, but then they rose back up to 5 before the financial crisis, when, of course, they were dropped to essentially zero, which we are just now climbing out of to "normal" levels. We haven't seen such free money for decades, and theres a good argument that savers should be rewarded with decent returns instead of the Fed encouraging such speculation, which results in absurdities like billion dollar losing companies like Tesla and Uber worth more than blue chip profit making international corporations.
The markets would be fine with gradual rate rises. Its been going on for some time, and its priced in. Yeah, some people dont like it, but, what they really dont like is this craziness and unpredictability. The markets do not want a trade war, they dont want political turmoil, and they certainly dont want the Fed to be fucked with in such a blatant manner. Everybody thought we could wait this asshole out with minimal damage, but, that isnt happening, it seems. Like I said, fuck with the military and fuck with rich people, especially the latter, and he's going to get fucked back in a bad way, sooner or later. Hitler had his brown shirts, Mussolini had his boys, but he forgot to establish his own little malitia to protect him before he started this shit. He has no friends, none, and his core supporters are at most 15-20% of the public, so he's doomed because of that, but he's going to take us all down with him if he isn't stopped soon.

**Benny Profane** · 12-24-2018, 11:28 PM

Originally Posted by berko

No shit. Its gonna suck for almost all of us.

Thats why your gleeful posts about it stand out in my mind.

What gleeful posts?

**iceman** · 12-24-2018, 11:33 PM

Seen a lot of posts from Benny but I can't recall any gleeful ones.

**Benny Profane** · 12-24-2018, 11:34 PM

I like Ice Cream!

Edit: I just thought of something.

I was at Stowe last Tuesday. Rough day. Half the lifts we're closed due to wind. Not a ton of Glee in the air unless you found the tree stashes. Anyway, I'm taking my boots off in the Mansfield Lodge, drinking an Irish coffee, when I notice a little girl, maybe 8 or 9 walking over to the table next to me holding a hot chocolate with a big hit of whipped cream on the top. The look on her face, it was priceless. This is what she was looking forward to all day, you could tell. She held that hot chocolate like a little kitten as she settled in, smiling at her grandparents. They didn't seem too happy, but, she ignored their talk, and just smiled and drank her hot chocolate with the whipped cream, slowly and methodically. Pure joy. I know that whipped cream was excellent, because it was on top of my Irish coffee. When she got home and her Mom asked her how her day was, I'll bet that she said the skiing was ok, but, Mom! Grandma bought me the best hot chocolate! It was so good! She'll always remember that hot chocolate at Stowe. The skiing? Maybe.

**4matic** · 12-25-2018, 12:53 AM

It’s not too late to sell. 2400 is still pretty good if you’ve been long for more than a few years. No bellyaching if you’re just going to ride your allocation down and do nothing.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 01:01 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

It’s not too late to sell. 2400 is still pretty good if you’ve been long for more than a few years. No bellyaching if you’re just going to ride your allocation down and do nothing.

You know what happens after markers go down? They go up! Weeeeeee............

**tbssux** · 12-25-2018, 01:32 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Oh no I won't. What the fuck do you think is paying for my skiing?

Seriously, this was all so avoidable. Then this piece of shit Queens trash gets elected president by people that have no assets. Fuck me.

He also got elected by people with assets who wanted tax cuts. Short term/unrealistic thinking definitely affects wealthy people too. You live in CT amd know this.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 04:42 AM

Dude, we didn't vote for him. Yeah, everybody likes tax cuts, but, c'mon.

**Benny Profane** · 12-25-2018, 07:05 AM

Originally Posted by 4matic

It’s not too late to sell. 2400 is still pretty good if you’ve been long for more than a few years. No bellyaching if you’re just going to ride your allocation down and do nothing.

You know, here we go again. A common refrain from dumbass retired folk is, boo hoo, I "lost" all my retirement savings in 08 when the market crashed. No you didn't . You followed this stupid advice. You sold when you were down, just like you probably bought when the market was high. It was your own damn fault. The market was/is up since then, what, double? Triple? The only people who "lose" money have margin calls and /or placed their futures bets wrong. Just chill. Shit happens.