Is the stock market going to tank?

[4matic]

I lost 66% in the 2008 crash. But made a strong play and had a great rebound. I'd rather not have to repeat that again.


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That’s one of the outlier risks imo. The wounds haven’t healed and a herd exit is possible. You think people still believe the long only stock promoters?

It will be interesting to see redemptions through the end of the year.

Technically this is the fourth trip down to 2600. Bang on the door enough times and it eventually gets answered.

Not sure what to make of the fed if they change language next week. Seems like a lose lose for them.

[iceman]

i dream of the day the markets close

They close every day. Well, weekdays.

[iceman]

What would happen to the global economy if the markets literally stopped expanding indefinitely? What if 25K was the all time high for the DOW and it never gets higher than that for say, the next 50 years? Nobody's 401K grows any larger than what they actually contribute. Add in the push to cut social security benefits instead of repaying what was stolen from the trust and/or raising the cap on what's taxable.

If things were different they'd be different.

[shroom]

They close every day. Well, weekdays.

i wasn’t done yet

i have a fair amount of scheduled RSUs set to sell Monday. after the past few months, i’m expecting 3% range, and i’ll open an interesting email next week when i find out how much income the bots believe i deserve this year.

[AKPogue]

What would happen to the global economy if the markets literally stopped expanding indefinitely? What if 25K was the all time high for the DOW and it never gets higher than that for say, the next 50 years? Nobody's 401K grows any larger than what they actually contribute. Add in the push to cut social security benefits instead of repaying what was stolen from the trust and/or raising the cap on what's taxable.

Why would the market stall out? I'm no expert on finances by any means but am a reader of history and history has shown the market either climbs or it crashes.

[SlyFoxxx]

If you're in it hoping to cash out in 5 years for retirement, you're in for a rude awakening. If you're trading the volatility, or you're knowledgable about cutting edge tech, you can make some nice gains... If you're young and want to invest for 25 years down the road, wait 1-2 years and buy the blue chips that survive the storm at a massive discount. We're at the end of the cycle, signaled by the yield curve inverting.. 30% drop in the next 2 years would not be a surprise..

[iceman]

Why is it going to go down?

[4matic]

30% drop in the next 2 years would not be a surprise..

Not that far away. Nasdaq down 18% and russelll down 20+.

[SlyFoxxx]

Not that far away. Nasdaq down 18% and russelll down 20+.

I meant from current levels, not all time highs..

[SlyFoxxx]

Why is it going to go down?

It's a system built on fiat currency, which is debt based (someone has to go in debt, to create money). It would take a long time to explain in full, but basically there is no more debt to pass around, which means no more money is created.. So the system comes to a screeching halt. It happens about every 10 years without fail..

[Cdubmpdx]

I don't have the inclination to debate this, but the measures you talked about have no correlation to 10 year returns


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Fair enough and valid points, I'm not here to argue or debate. I'm less bearish but to each their own. I think the 3 and 5 year returns will suck and 10 year will be just fine in terms of total market. By fine I mean 6-8% annualized which is what I think should be expected in a normal market. You sound like you know your shit more than I do.

I also think there are always places to invest over a ten year period, maybe an index isn't the way to go.

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[gravitylover]

^^^ Da bear

We’re fucked anyway.


As i age, I see a lot of people in, or near, their 50’s who won’t make minimum wage when they lose their fat corporate jobs. Those people are usually the ones banking on their 401k’s doubling again.

My brother is one of them. Laid off a yr ago from tech, 2mm in a 401k and acting like he’s not scared shitless because The mkt has been so strong. I’m afraid for him in a yr.


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After I lost my good paying job at 50 I haven't been able to make even half of what I did. Nobody, I mean nobody, is paying worth a shit for us over 50 folks. About a year ago most of the reserves were used up so the 401 that I had been paying into for less than 10 years had to be liquidated, the penalties hurt but we needed the $$. Now there's nothing other than what is currently coming in and that's not much Lotto is the only way I'm gonna end up happy after retirement age...

[iceman]

...the system comes to a screeching halt. It happens about every 10 years without fail..

Well you better hurry up and short everything then.

[SlyFoxxx]

Well you better hurry up and short everything then.

It's not that simple. Still have to know exactly what to short and when.. I'm not a pro and I don't have a crystal ball.. I just know that current levels of growth are unsustainable based on our economic system.. No growth = stocks go down.. Predicting the actual dates is a big gamble and it's easy to get burned badly when leveraging shorts.. I just swing trade 1-2 stocks at a time that I follow very closely in sectors that I'm knowledgable about. Up 60% this year doing that..

[Cono Este]

After I lost my good paying job at 50 I haven't been able to make even half of what I did. Nobody, I mean nobody, is paying worth a shit for us over 50 folks. About a year ago most of the reserves were used up so the 401 that I had been paying into for less than 10 years had to be liquidated, the penalties hurt but we needed the $$. Now there's nothing other than what is currently coming in and that's not much Lotto is the only way I'm gonna end up happy after retirement age...

Age discrimination is the worst there is. In the trading world you’re done at 32 unless you start your own group. But I was lucky to have the run I did. Kids out of college can’t just walk down to floor now and get a runners job.

I’m just hoping I can sell insurance through 70 1/2. Working less, and less, and doing the things I want to do.

I could care less about a real job again. I’ll never be rich again, but life is too fucking short to sit in traffic and deal with assholes all day.




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[4matic]

Up 60% this year doing that..

That’s not a sustainable rate. You’d be Warren Buffett in ten years

[SlyFoxxx]

That’s not a sustainable rate. You’d be Warren Buffett in ten years

I don't think it is.. I was all in on AMD and CRON when they hit.. I was at +90% last week, but I held CRON instead of dumping @ $13+ (because I think $17 is where it's going).. Still should've dumped it and bought back in @ $11..

[4matic]

By fine I mean 6-8% annualized which is what I think should be expected in a normal market.

Reasonable but that assumes more than twice the current ten year risk free rate and a little more than trend growth plus inflation. It’s good to be optimistic.

Worth a read.

https://michaelritger.com/2018/11/30...ormula-decade/

[SlyFoxxx]

Nice to see a bit of honesty. High YTD returns carry a compulsory risk that's unacceptable to most people. As you can see above, 30% drawdown in a few days is possible, so is -150% when dealing with levered equity or naked options. My peak in micro caps was 35% this year and has bled out to -5%YTD as of this week for a drawdown of 40% over 6 weeks. Just as your risk is unacceptable to me, my risk is unacceptable to many, so they really shouldn't look at my peak returns earlier this year and feel like they're missing anything. Large drawdowns can be soul-crushing. There's also the asterisk that active management tends to require effort that's commensurate with returns, so unless you're willing to invest 20, 30, 60hrs a week, you have no business desiring or expecting anything more than the indexes offer. If you're a dentist, that's perfectly ok as you can do quite well with index returns and saving.

Honesty is the only way to learn and not make the same mistakes over and over..

I'm mostly just forward testing ideas/strategies with money I can afford to lose. If it was the beginning of a cycle and I had mouths to feed (or I was closer to retirement). I would be long on larger positions with less risk and more diversity..

So yeah, don't do what I'm doing if it's your life savings...

[splat]

If you're in it hoping to cash out in 5 years for retirement, you're in for a rude awakening. If you're trading the volatility, or you're knowledgable about cutting edge tech, you can make some nice gains... If you're young and want to invest for 25 years down the road, wait 1-2 years and buy the blue chips that survive the storm at a massive discount. We're at the end of the cycle, signaled by the yield curve inverting.. 30% drop in the next 2 years would not be a surprise..

Why is it going to go down?

Moodys is saying the bottom will drop out in late 2020.

[gravitylover]

Age discrimination is the worst there is. In the trading world you’re done at 32 unless you start your own group. But I was lucky to have the run I did. Kids out of college can’t just walk down to floor now and get a runners job.

I’m just hoping I can sell insurance through 70 1/2. Working less, and less, and doing the things I want to do.

I couldn't care less about a real job again. I’ll never be rich again, but life is too fucking short to sit in traffic and deal with assholes all day.

No kidding.

[liv2ski]

Age discrimination is the worst there is. In the trading world you’re done at 32 unless you start your own group. But I was lucky to have the run I did. Kids out of college can’t just walk down to floor now and get a runners job.

I’m just hoping I can sell insurance through 70 1/2. Working less, and less, and doing the things I want to do.

I could care less about a real job again. I’ll never be rich again, but life is too fucking short to sit in traffic and deal with assholes all day.

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Huh, and here I thought it was just me. Talking to the yougins, I suggest the most important career goal is to be set up so once you hit your 50's you're in a solid career and position to last out into retirement (think partner in a large law firm, dentist, owner of a successful business, whatever) as I know so many people and myself that got crushed in their 50's.

[shroom]

depends on the company. work somewhere that to some degree pays based on merit and yer good. work somewhere old n slow and yer fucked.

[4matic]

A good computer scientist can find work at any age.

[reckless toboggan]

A good computer scientist can find work at any age.

Yah. I heard that Zuckerberg guy is still doing pretty well,...I don't think he even finished college.