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  1. #301
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
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    Stuck in perpetual Meh
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    35,248
    Well then pass the Malbec and the Lomo, because Ron Paul won't win shit.

  2. #302
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    State of Disbelief
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    602
    Quote Originally Posted by Tippster View Post
    Well then pass the Malbec and the Lomo, because Ron Paul won't win shit.
    I'll take, "You got that fuckin'right" for a thousand please

  3. #303
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    Milpitas, CA
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    2,807
    Quote Originally Posted by Spats View Post
    In the next few years we are going to find out exactly what the real American economy looks like. Hint: unless we elect Ron Paul, the answer is "Argentina".
    I don't know if Ron Paul is the answer (maybe he is), but I increasingly fear that you're right about the Argentina bit. I just hope I end up on the right side of the divide. It seems to be becoming more real in the Bay area.

  4. #304
    Join Date
    Dec 2001
    Location
    tahhh
    Posts
    2,777
    Is the stock market going to tank?

    Prolly.

  5. #305
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,220
    Today has potential for a short term low. Oil reversing and the ten year note at 3.97%.

    The market feels rotational to me with technology and defensive stocks strengthening vs. value and financials.

  6. #306
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    be here now
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    5,237
    Quote Originally Posted by 4matic View Post
    Today has potential for a short term low. Oil reversing and the ten year note at 3.97%.

    The market feels rotational to me with technology and defensive stocks strengthening vs. value and financials.
    yeah, technology stocks....the new inflation hedge!
    Let me lock in the system at Warp 2
    Push it on into systematic overdrive
    You know what to do

  7. #307
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    SoCal (4 now)
    Posts
    186
    Freddie Mac possible cutting dividend, Dow technicals getting blown up, Retail sales still in question. Looks like even lower we shall go. I'm surprised the Mich. Confidence number came in slightly above the consensus. Although, 76.1 isn't all that great.

  8. #308
    Join Date
    Jan 2006
    Location
    SoCal (4 now)
    Posts
    186
    Oh, and CFC traded down to an 8-handle today. Chapter 11 rumors might have some eventual validity.

  9. #309
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    In the Trees
    Posts
    631
    I think this Christmas shopping season is going to be notably lousy. The consumer has no savings and is living in fear right now. Not a good combination. We've been living on borrowed time (and money) for years now, even w/o dropping a few hundred billion/yr into Iraq. At some point, you've got to pay the piper.

    As for Ron Paul - if he is the answer, I'll be damned if I know what the question is.

  10. #310
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    6,007
    Quote Originally Posted by Tin Woodsman View Post
    As for Ron Paul - if he is the answer, I'll be damned if I know what the question is.
    The question is "Why is everything slowly collapsing?"

    The answer is "Relentlessly inflationary monetary policy by the Fed, resulting in excessively cheap credit, which creates an unsustainable economic bubble that primarily enriches Wall Street at the expense of everyone else's salary and savings being destroyed by inflation, and takes the world economy with it when it finally crashes."

    Ron Paul is the only candidate to address this, because he's the only candidate not entirely financed by Wall Street. Goldman Sachs is the top campaign contributor to Barack Obama *AND* Mitt Romney. Wall Street makes up at least 15 of the top 20 contributors to every major candidate -- except Ron Paul.

    http://rabbit-hole-journey.blogspot....-anointed.html

  11. #311
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    State of Disbelief
    Posts
    602
    Quote Originally Posted by Spats View Post
    Ron Paul is the only candidate to address this, because he's the only candidate not entirely financed by Wall Street. Goldman Sachs is the top campaign contributor to Barack Obama *AND* Mitt Romney. Wall Street makes up at least 15 of the top 20 contributors to every major candidate -- except Ron Paul.

    http://rabbit-hole-journey.blogspot....-anointed.html
    This is probably the major reason that he won't win. Primary canidates are annoited then propped up by the corporate press. We choose form what we are given. You forget about Kucinich and Dodd also. Theses guys are pro-constitution, anti-war and anti-corruption. They are also ignored. The system is self sustaining. Anybody who plans on making major changes will be ignored by the corporate press. Not that concentration of media ownership makes any difference

  12. #312
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
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    8200 S.
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    1,282
    Time to buy! I am.

  13. #313
    Join Date
    Oct 2005
    Location
    Point of No Return
    Posts
    2,020

    I hope you have deep pockets.

    Quote Originally Posted by powderwhore View Post
    Time to buy! I am.
    I'm not predicting anything(or giving advice, for that matter), but if you are talking about indexes and someone put a gun to my head and said "buy or sell?" I would say sell. They have a ways to go before they bottom out, IMO.

  14. #314
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Denver
    Posts
    1,633
    Quote Originally Posted by MeatPuppet View Post
    I'm not predicting anything(or giving advice, for that matter), but if you are talking about indexes and someone put a gun to my head and said "buy or sell?" I would say sell. They have a ways to go before they bottom out, IMO.
    My best guess is to start buying the XLF and keep buying through the end of the year. PMs will start taking a chance on this stuff when the have a whole year rather then stepping on a landmine and screwing up their comp with a month to go. The risk reward is insane at this point.

  15. #315
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    At the beach
    Posts
    17,530
    Quote Originally Posted by CUBUCK View Post
    My best guess is to start buying the XLF and keep buying through the end of the year. PMs will start taking a chance on this stuff when the have a whole year rather then stepping on a landmine and screwing up their comp with a month to go. The risk reward is insane at this point.
    The risk/reward on that move is questionable for my $$$. Frankly, I think an inverse fund on the XLF would be a safer bet into the 1st quarter of 2008, maybe 2nd quarter.
    Quote Originally Posted by leroy jenkins View Post
    I think you'd have an easier time understanding people if you remembered that 80% of them are fucking morons.
    That is why I like dogs, more than most people.

  16. #316
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    19,220
    Critical juncture in a middle aged bull market next week. Strong down points to 11,400 Indu or lower. Any strength next week is a good thing for the bulls.

    On rally's to 13,500 Indu or 7800 DAXI I'm looking to lighten up on big cap Euro (I've been holding for almost 20 years). A bear market here will crush Europe stocks..

    Lower open market interest rates gives the Fed lots of flexibility so I remain a super bull for the baby boom retirement rally to dow 20,000 in two years. My favorite sector for the next 18 months is USA Dollar based large cap growth and technology.

    If I had to pick one name that will benefit with the least risk in a new bull leg up I'd say Microsoft. Nasdaq: MSFT super bullish chart if it holds:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quo...&freq=1&time=9

  17. #317
    Join Date
    Oct 2001
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    8200 S.
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    1,282
    Quote Originally Posted by MeatPuppet View Post
    I hope you have deep pockets.
    I do, and they even deeper after today. Up about 15% in the last nine days. This is fun isn't it!
    Last edited by powderwhore; 11-29-2007 at 02:10 AM.

  18. #318
    Join Date
    Feb 2003
    Posts
    6,007
    E*Trade just sold $3 billion of CDOs to a hedge fund for 27 cents on the dollar.

    If that's what mortgage-backed paper is really worth, most major banks are insolvent, as are a whole lot of municipalities, retirement funds, and endowments -- worldwide. Remember, however, that Wall Street wants its year-end bonuses, and the SEC filings don't have to happen until February. That's when the shit is really going to hit the fan...the writedowns so far are just a warmup.

    Until then, expect the Fed to keep the liquidity hose blasting, investor sentiment to remain "PARTY PARTY RATE CUTS WOOOOO", and real inflation to remain around 10-11%.

  19. #319
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    State of Disbelief
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    602
    Bernanke implies more rate cuts and market drops?? Hey finance mags are we nearing the end of the line here. Market so far has somewhat insulated itself from the crdit crunch with the talk of/ and actual rate cuts up until now.

    Gold at $900 at one point, look at the treasury yields=FEAR. The dollar is going to take a giant shit with the next rate cuts.(as if it hasn't already).

    How far are the sovereign wealth funds willing to go to buy us out of this mess?

    Tell me something positive.
    Last edited by Tourette Dude; 01-11-2008 at 02:16 PM.

  20. #320
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    Moose, Iowa
    Posts
    7,642
    Quote Originally Posted by Tourette Dude View Post
    Tell me something positive.
    Considering all the bad news today and this past week the market is holding up quite nicely for now. I mean that in relative terms of course.

  21. #321
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Indy
    Posts
    644
    down 280 today.

    of course i loaded up my ira and kid's 429s on Dec 26th.....

    I'm thinking i am down nearly 15% since then already. fuck me.

  22. #322
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    State of Disbelief
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    602
    It is rather amazing how its held up so far. I would be interested to know the breakdown of 401K money that just sits there, vs foreign cash vs big players/gov trying to keep it from flying apart.

    I don't see the fundementals other than a printing press.

  23. #323
    Join Date
    Nov 2005
    Location
    Indy
    Posts
    644
    OJs back in jail.

  24. #324
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    State of Disbelief
    Posts
    602
    Quote Originally Posted by PTracy P1 View Post
    OJs back in jail.
    I always thought he was part of the Plunge Protection Team. Now my suspicions have been confirmed.

  25. #325
    Join Date
    Oct 2006
    Location
    MA
    Posts
    6,664
    Quote Originally Posted by Tourette Dude View Post
    Bernanke implies more rate cuts and market drops??
    Maybe the Fed wont drop the rate again, with the yesterday's and today's market drops even with the hint of interest rate cuts. Might be too little reward market-wise at the expense of inflation/value of the dollar? If the market responded I think theyd go ahead with another cut- but why bother at this point?
    Decisions Decisions

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