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  1. #1
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    El Nino and the PNW?

    i don't know who's spreading this, but it doesn't matter because i don't know what it means anyway. but everyone is telling me we're in store for one up here. any meteorologists maggots know what this means for resorts in eastern washington/northern idaho? because i'll move back to utah tomorrow if it means a "drier than normal winter" for the PNW.

  2. #2
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    for instance....

    we skied Crystal two years back, a weak bastard-evil-child known as El Nino showed up to create a wet warm inversions (which are common in years).
    It snowed 2 feet, then the next day rained for a week.
    if-only-it-was-12 degrees colder...would have been insane.
    they lost mad base.
    But...same year, closing day (april something) it snowed 10" in the morning!

    prepare for rain at low resorts (every resort expcept Mission & Crystal)
    Baker doesn't count, it's a given.
    In February, when it absolutely shit pours at 6000', you'll curse the bastartd evil child known as El Nino.

    As for moving back to UT...
    the last horrible El Nino, ya know the Baker super supreme world record year...Big sky had it's best year in ages. That year the wave wall went off.
    It was fresh snow everyday for weeks and weeks on end.

    Invest in raingear.
    skiing in the rain isn't too bad....
    but then again i grew up at Baker.

    don't be scared just go higher

  3. #3
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    Well according to Accuweather, there's a weak El Nino and NW is going to be warmer and dryer. Who knows if anybody can predict that far out.




  4. #4
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    Do a search. It's been discussed before. Check this thread first:

    http://tetongravity.com/forums/showt...highlight=nino
    Martha's just polishing the brass on the Titanic....

  5. #5
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    Pique article:

    Environment Canada predicting warmer winter
    El Niño could be good news for Whistler

    Published Date: 2006-10-12 Time: 10:10:42

    By Andrew Mitchell

    While no doubt some Canadians are welcoming the Meteorological Service of Canada’s forecast of a warm, dry winter, the impact on coastal mountain resorts like Whistler may not be as bad.

    According to MSC weather forecaster Peter Jones, the main culprit behind the warmer temperatures is an El Niño developing over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

    Warmer El Niño waters typically influence temperatures across Canada, to the extent that it has become one of the more reliable forecasting tools for meteorologists.

    The connection between El Niño and precipitation is less certain, says Jones, and on the coast it can vary depending on the presence of an Aleutian low pressure system further north. While most of the country could experience lower precipitation because of El Niño, the coast could actually be a great deal wetter.

    That, says Jones, is where freezing levels come in and higher temperatures will have the greatest impact.

    “In the end, what we think we know and do know to some extent is that at lower elevations in the Coast Mountains, 1,200 metres and below, whatever precipitation falls will fall more as rain proportionally than in a normal winter,” said Jones. “When you look at Cypress Bowl at 350 metres you can see the snow at a fraction (of normal) during an El Niño, while at 1,900 metres at the Roundhouse (on Whistler) — where we have records back to 1973 — is more total snow.

    “It might be wetter snow on average, because the freezing level is a little higher, but overall that’s what we’ve seen.”

    Some of Whistler-Blackcomb’s best winter seasons, including 1997-98 and 1998-99 were El Niño years.

    El Niño conditions in the Pacific so far are rated as weak, but according to MSC computer models will become moderate by December and the start of the winter season. As a result there is less likelihood of arctic outbreaks that last for any length of time, if the southern part of the province sees any arctic weather at all, and parts of the Lower Mainland will likely stay snowless throughout the winter.

    “Personally I’m a skier so I’m always interested in the data, and I’m anticipating a lot of questions about this because of the huge economic impact it could have on the province, a lot of questions about the snow,” Jones said. “It’s only in rare years that I would take the time to explain what we know, every other year I would say we’re guessing, don’t waste you’re time on this even though we put out a seasonal forecast for every season.

    “El Niño winters are different — only when El Niño is moderate or strong do we have any confidence in (the seasonal forecast).”

    For December through the end of February, temperatures in the southern part of the province are expected to be about 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer on average, with parts of Ontario and Manitoba expecting temperatures almost three degrees warmer. Temperatures will be close to normal, about one degree warmer than average, for March, April and May.

    In terms of precipitation, the Coast Mountains could see anywhere from 0.2 to 3.8 additional millimetres per day, averaged out over December, January and February, while the Interior of the province could see a drop of 0.3 mm per day on average — depending on the strength and position of the Aleutian Low.

    Precipitation in March, April and May for the Coast Mountains is forecast to be close to normal, or about 0.1 mm per day above average.

    Although there is no established link between El Niño and global warming, some evidence suggests that there’s an indirect link that amplifies the effect of the warmer waters on climate.

    It’s interesting to note that Environment Canada’s predictions run against those of the Canadian Almanac, which is predicting temperatures that are one or two degrees colder on average and near normal precipitation. The Almanac also predicts that the most snow will fall in mid-to-late November, from early to mid-January and from mid-to-late February.

    While the MSC uses computer models to predict weather, the Almanac uses a secret formula devised in 1792 and calculations based on solar activity and sunspots, as well as weather history.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorCascader View Post
    As for moving back to UT...
    the last horrible El Nino, ya know the Baker super supreme world record year...Big sky had it's best year in ages. That year the wave wall went off.
    It was fresh snow everyday for weeks and weeks on end.

    Invest in raingear.
    skiing in the rain isn't too bad....
    but then again i grew up at Baker.

    don't be scared just go higher
    That year, 98-99, was a 'la Nina' year with colder than normal temps in the S. Pacific.
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
    >>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<

  7. #7
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    ah...

    ah...good call...
    I get those mixed up + I never believe weather people.

    but if I recall, which I do, everywhere else rained alot that year (warmer+wetter)....
    except Baker, which still tetered at the 32 degree mark, as usual.

    I tend to rely on the farmers almanac...historical + scientific data.

    seems like accu-this and msnb-that have their heads up their ass with a 90% chance of shitty in their mouth.

    My prediction for this winter is as follows: snow and sometimes rain.
    (safe ass prediction in the northwest)

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by NorCascader View Post
    ah...good call...
    I get those mixed up + I never believe weather people.
    Don't worry, reliance on faith in the absence of intelligence or reason is an increasingly common fallback.

    but if I recall, which I do, everywhere else rained alot that year (warmer+wetter)....
    except Baker, which still tetered at the 32 degree mark, as usual.
    I can understand your perception there. Independent of fact.
    I tend to rely on the farmers almanac...historical + scientific data.
    The laws of averages are a powerful thing.

    seems like accu-this and msnb-that have their heads up their ass with a 90% chance of shitty in their mouth.
    Usually, they just parrot what NOAA has forecast, that wasteful federal institution populated by gourd shaking witch doctors.
    My prediction for this winter is as follows: snow and sometimes rain.
    (safe ass prediction in the northwest)
    Provided the sun rises in the East.
    Merde De Glace On the Freak When Ski
    >>>200 cm Black Bamboo Sidewalled DPS Lotus 120 : Best Skis Ever <<<

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by Van_skier View Post
    Pique article:

    Environment Canada predicting warmer winter
    El Ni&#241;o could be good news for Whistler

    Published Date: 2006-10-12 Time: 10:10:42

    By Andrew Mitchell


    .....Some of Whistler-Blackcomb’s best winter seasons, including 1997-98 and 1998-99 were El Ni&#241;o years......
    At least Mr Mitchell got it 50% right

    NorCasder - we have some of the worlds best weather forecasts and mountain weather info in Washington. Our weather is also some of the most complicated.

    This is a very good read http://www.amazon.com/Northwest-Moun...e=UTF8&s=books

    And this http://www.avalanchenw.org/membership.html is a great place to donate
    Last edited by PNWbrit; 10-19-2006 at 11:36 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  10. #10
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    Think winter is already too wet? Just wait

    October 18, 2006

    By Associated Press

    SEATTLE - A climate researcher at the University of Washington says Pacific Northwest winters will be getting more gray and rainy over the next 50 to 100 years, due to a low-pressure system near the Aleutian Islands that is moving farther to the north and east.

    Eric Salathe said weather that far in the future may not seem relevant to the average person, but the storms brought on by climate change will affect everyone paying for or designing a new bridge or roadway today.

    Weather systems near the Aleutian Islands affect rain patterns in western Oregon, Washington, British Columbia and Alaska because the path of storms along the jetstream is affected by what happens in and above the Pacific Ocean, Salathe explained.

    "The whole storm system in the north Pacific is tracking northward," but that's just half of the story, Salathe said. "Even though the storms are moving northward, they are becoming more intense."

    He predicted a 5 percent to 15 percent increase in Washington and Oregon rain and a 10 percent to 20 percent increase in Alaska rain 50 to 100 years from now. The storms will be both more intense and more frequent, leading to more flooding, more water flow in rivers and erosion of salmon habitat.

    "The problem is it's more water, but more water at the wrong time. We already have plenty of water in November," Salathe said.

    When asked if this forecast could be good news for skiers, the researcher said it probably wouldn't be helpful to anyone but engineers and planners. Lower-elevation ski areas could see more rain than snow in future seasons because of a combination of global warming and increased precipitation, he said.

    People who design infrastructures like bridges and stormwater systems with underground pipes or culverts depend on information like Salathe's report, which was published Oct. 13 in the online edition of the journal Geophysical Research Letters.

    "Often they plan these things based on what we've seen in the recent past. The future isn't going to look like the past," Salathe said. "The best thing is to factor in a little bit more margin of safety."

    Salathe said computer technology improvements in the last five years have made this kind of precise climate predicting possible. His team of researchers, part of the university's Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans, took data gathered by other scientists around the world and analyzed it for the Pacific Northwest. The study was paid for by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    He said the Pacific Northwest's climate could eventually be modified if people act to halt or slow global warming and climate change, but previous policies and actions have already decided what will happen in the next 50 years.

    "If we stabilized emissions, these scenarios have much less of an impact on the later half of the century," Salathe said, suggesting people drive less, use more efficient vehicles and influence developing economies like China to be more energy efficient than the United States has been. "The worst parts are still up to us."

    http://www.komotv.com/stories/46051.htm

  11. #11
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    purrfect

    that ol' weather dog Jeff Renner. I remember him flying into Camp when I was a wee one and giving a detailed predictions of future weather patterns. I consider him family.Good links!

    heiman...thanks for the detailed breakdown of opinion vs. fact. awesome!
    Usually I like to roll the chicken bones and flip three coins whilest farting.
    This simple action, known as "fartometrics" alert me to approaching weather, it's severity and how mountains will fare.

    history...observation...short term forcasts...altimeter...barometer...and fartometrics is all I really need.

    that being said....it's been snowing on washington pass, turns in two weeks yeah!

  12. #12
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    lastest Noaa winter forecast is up. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2724.htm

    no really new info but rehash of last report.

  13. #13
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    el nino is a area of warm water in the south pacific it usually brings warmer but wetter weather


    i think

  14. #14
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    I heard this year is an "El Grande" year!! Any confirmations??

  15. #15
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    this just in: they have no clue: everything i read (and i obsess about weather as it relates to snow) seems to contradict one another: one guy says mild el nino = more snow, another says less snow b/c of warmer temps = higher snow levels, another says no real impact for snow totals, etc.

    all i know is past el nino's in the sierras have been pretty epic, so cross your fingers and pray to Ullr

  16. #16
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    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...churchill.html

    There you go. That pretty much covers everything. It wont necessarily mean we'll get less snow and more rain on a day to day basis, but what it does indicate is that by the end of the season, we should find that the average temperature and precipitation should be as indicated by the charts above.

    Trust me, I'm studying this in college right now. Wanna fight about it?
    eating and sleeping is serious business

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dug View Post
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...churchill.html

    There you go. That pretty much covers everything. It wont necessarily mean we'll get less snow and more rain on a day to day basis, but what it does indicate is that by the end of the season, we should find that the average temperature and precipitation should be as indicated by the charts above.

    Trust me, I'm studying this in college right now. Wanna fight about it?
    Yes I wanna fight about it. I find the forecast unsatisfying, therefore you must suffer grievously.

  18. #18
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    after working in the ski industry for nearly 15 years, i've realized that the fuckstick weatherpeople can't even predict yesterday's weather, let alone my precious seaon.

  19. #19
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    yeah fucktards!!!!!

    It's snowing like a mutha fucker outside of my E. Washington office window.
    I feel all fucking giddy and want to bitch slap a weather bitch.
    I'm going to do a fucking snow angel...well, not really.

    Where the fuck are my new squads from UPS/Canada........I want

  20. #20
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    Major precip in PNW. Hope freezing levels stay low enuff for it to fall as snow. So far it's been snow

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by wizard604 View Post
    Major precip in PNW. Hope freezing levels stay low enuff for it to fall as snow. So far it's been snow
    WOOT WOOT puking at roudhouse on whistler (from looking at cams) supposed to snow like a bastard tommorow then rain monday then turn back to snow tuesday then a little break form the precip then more snow

  22. #22
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    Well, if this longterm forcast is at all reliable, at least we'll have man-made snow for the opening of Whistler: http://www.weathernetwork.com/weathe...2.htm?CABC0322
    "Who's the chump doing 140kph in the fast lane!!?" - German autobahns kick ass!

  23. #23
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    i guarentee that forecast is not accurate past 5-7 day but man made snow isnt to bad as long as its cold and not slush. Looks like some real snow for the end of next week tho

  24. #24
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    National Weather Service forecaster discussion this afternoon "LONG TERM...THE MODELS ARE COOL WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM IN CONTROL AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SNOWPACK BUILDING PATTERN"
    Quote Originally Posted by Downbound Train View Post
    And there will come a day when our ancestors look back...........

  25. #25
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    ROBOTS ARE EATING MY FACE.

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