Real Estate Crash thread

**Benny Profane** · 02-24-2021, 07:00 PM

Originally Posted by glademaster

You have a point on water, but less of one on the grid/electrical infrastructure. In the last ten years my parents have cumulatively spent almost two full months without power, and they're 45 miles from Midtown Manhattan.

Yeah, but they didn't get a $10,000 bill for the pleasure.

**Benny Profane** · 02-24-2021, 07:01 PM

Originally Posted by muted

One western water battle just popped up recently: Moab might reconsider new expansion after realizing they don't have as much water as they thought. But i believe a new development 5 miles south in Spanish Valley is already approved and will double the population of the entire county. Whoops.

https://www.kuer.org/health-science-...r-conservation

Fuck, Las Vegas. Explain that to a rational person.

**glademaster** · 02-24-2021, 07:03 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Yeah, but they didn't get a $10,000 bill for the pleasure.

It costs an awful lot to run a generator for that long in terms of propane consumption. Certainly into the thousands. Also gotta factor in lost income when you're in private practice and your office has no electricity, hot water or HVAC for a week or two at a time. Those folks in Texas with $10K electric bills got a fucking deal.

**Benny Profane** · 02-24-2021, 07:19 PM

Originally Posted by glademaster

It costs an awful lot to run a generator for that long in terms of propane consumption. Certainly into the thousands. Also gotta factor in lost income when you're in private practice and your office has no electricity, hot water or HVAC for a week or two at a time. Those folks in Texas with $10K electric bills got a fucking deal.

Oh, it's not that bad. The six years I lived in a "cottage" in northern Westchester I was out 30 days or so. They like their trees, and all the lines are up in them. Everybody has generators, and they aren't that expensive to run. Direct natural gas feed.
Commercial buildings get priority repair. That's why I like where I live sometimes. Right next to the supermarket.

**glademaster** · 02-24-2021, 07:34 PM

No natural gas where my folks live, they have a 1000 gallon propane tank that runs their generator. Running the generator for a week puts a big dent in that tank.

**fastfred** · 02-24-2021, 07:37 PM

grrreat discussion
benny is trolling or he is just oblivious to the world today????
lots of top dollar comments so far should quote all the ones I like but there are too many

here is my two cents
people have a fantasy, it doesn't always work out, but they try it for a couple years
summit county homeownership averages 6-10 years in length churn and burn

working with a client right now, prolly wont' start there job for another year but we are getting plans and a budget
john and jane doe are both silly tech money have a nice house in a nice town and now want the second home
absolutely nothing makes sense I don't ask too many personal questions might be around age 40
he told me what he does but it made no sense to me it had to do with cars planes pretty pictures and the internet

I've watched the churn and burn for 25 years now you can predict people you can predict what will happen round and round
I was just another fuck up when I landed in town
no particualar reason why I got here it just happened then one day I started working my balls off it's normally 50-60 hrs a wekk all I deal with is bullshit just got around to doing my february billing easy six figures the money floating around right now is beyond stupid

I think it's boomers spending money cause they have it, it's boomers giving money to their kids, it's tech money, the stock market which has no basis in reality is making people boat loads of money, there is so much money running around the top 25% of this country it's crazy

and yeah somehow I ended up with a million dollar house a sprinter in the driveway and my dick in my hand i realize how lucky I am top medical care 12 minutes away even better care an hour or so away

**Brock Landers** · 02-24-2021, 07:54 PM

Originally Posted by glademaster

No natural gas where my folks live, they have a 1000 gallon propane tank that runs their generator. Running the generator for a week puts a big dent in that tank.

Where do they make their meth?

**hatchgreenchile** · 02-24-2021, 07:55 PM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Fuck, Las Vegas. Explain that to a rational person.

Vegas is an easy mark, but they are a drop in the bucket compared to AZ and CA allocations.
Where the Water Goes is a great review of the Colorado and associated water rights.
Now, return to your regular scheduled program of Tom, Dick and Harry putting every real estate market through the roof.

**concretejungle** · 02-24-2021, 08:28 PM

Originally Posted by glademaster

Until they deal with a major injury/illness/life getting in the way to the point that they can't do those expensive, time consuming activities, and then they're over-leveraged in bumfuck nowhere with high quality healthcare facilities/hospitals hours away, their kids going to school with white trash and their neighbors making meth in the shed out back.

Their house will be worth plenty by then. Lol

We had good health care and natural gas when it was mostly hicks too.

**Hopeless Sinner** · 02-24-2021, 09:08 PM

Originally Posted by glademaster

No natural gas where my folks live, they have a 1000 gallon propane tank that runs their generator. Running the generator for a week puts a big dent in that tank.

Northern Westchester is brutal for electrical service interruptions. It was almost mandatory to have a generator. I would only run mine intermittently to conserve fuel and run time. Propane generators require constant attention and during a widespread outage demand for parts and repairs far outstrip availability.

**neufox47** · 02-25-2021, 12:52 AM

Originally Posted by Benny Profane

Oh, it's not that bad. The six years I lived in a "cottage" in northern Westchester I was out 30 days or so. They like their trees, and all the lines are up in them. Everybody has generators, and they aren't that expensive to run. Direct natural gas feed.
Commercial buildings get priority repair. That's why I like where I live sometimes. Right next to the supermarket.

A house sized generac will burn 2-3 gallons of propane per hour. 3 Tesla power walls suddenly look like a bargain in comparison over a 10 year period with time of day rate changes.

**glademaster** · 02-25-2021, 06:37 AM

Originally Posted by neufox47

A house sized generac will burn 2-3 gallons of propane per hour. 3 Tesla power walls suddenly look like a bargain in comparison over a 10 year period with time of day rate changes.

Yup. The one my folks have is sized to run most of their house and at this point is about 25 years old (was installed when they bought the house in ~2003) and it will go through 75-100 gallons or propane per day if they run it non-stop. With extended power outages they usually shut it off when they go to bed and fire it up again in the morning, but a week without power is still going to use AT LEAST 300-400 gallons of propane. That adds up.

**Dantheman** · 02-25-2021, 09:06 AM

Originally Posted by muted

One western water battle just popped up recently: Moab might reconsider new expansion after realizing they don't have as much water as they thought. But i believe a new development 5 miles south in Spanish Valley is already approved and will double the population of the entire county. Whoops.

https://www.kuer.org/health-science-...r-conservation

"Heilweil said he and his colleagues recommended the city begin monitoring the outflow of the springs, which supply Moab’s drinking water, in order to determine exactly how much water is coming out of the aquifer. Using that data, they suggested the city create a numerical model that can be used to simulate the effects of additional pumping. That, Heilweil said, would allow the city to better understand the effects of future development."

File under: Things that should have been happening for the last 20 years

**Foggy_Goggles** · 02-25-2021, 09:25 AM

Hydraulic modeling paid for buy the entities that can benefit from having more paper water to sell is one of the most transparent jokes in development. It goes something like this:

"If we skew all the supply assumptions on the high side and all the consumption assumptions on the low side and you write us a really big check for some Jr. High level excel deliverables, you can sell water water taps. There is really no downside."

**Conundrum** · 02-25-2021, 03:57 PM

As Benny pointed out, Boise is fucking crazy. I've said that a number of times over the last year or two in this thread but it keeps going up. Irritating to say the least. I'm fine. I bought a quaint house downtown about 20 years ago but most of the reasons I stayed here after school are pretty much gone unless you like crowds, a lot of people, all the time. It's sad to see people who grew up here who will never be able to have their own house until their parents die. And that's still a maybe. Rentals, also fucked. I was talking to a buddy in the medical field and they are hiring people at $150k salary fresh out of school who are buying RVs and living in them until they can get a down payment saved up. Personally, doesn't seem like a winning strategy when you're competing against cash offers. There are the outlying communities that you may find something in the $4-500k range but that will come with a 30-60 minute drive to work. We've done it. We've become the place long time locals want to move away from. Sorry to all you small towns that liked being small towns.

According to Zillow, there is not a house or condo for sale under $600k within a one mile radius of me. I'm talking including tear downs. There is one .25 acre lot with a view for $500k. Madness.

I'm hoping for a bust but word around town is it's going to be awhile. And it's not just dirt pimps saying it. Everybody is saying it. Fingers crossed...

**kathleenturneroverdrive** · 02-25-2021, 04:07 PM

$900+/square foot in Bozeman is absurd, although I'm just posting it here to break Benny's brain

**fastfred** · 02-25-2021, 04:41 PM

looking for a new location to live in the town I like isn't in forbes places to retire or best town to be a yuppie outdoorsy person in
my price point is 180 - 220 sq ft with plenty of places to choose from all in need to be pimped out of course
winning

**RootSkier** · 02-25-2021, 04:52 PM

Originally Posted by kathleenturneroverdrive

$900+/square foot in Bozeman is absurd, although I'm just posting it here to break Benny's brain

That colorful blanket (that you can see from everywhere in the entire house) really ties the house together.

That place really makes the newest high-end condo development in Missoula look like a steal though, just $949k for a 2 bd with 1600 square feet. https://www.trulia.com/p/mt/missoula...01--2521689466

**Benny Profane** · 02-25-2021, 04:55 PM

Originally Posted by kathleenturneroverdrive

$900+/square foot in Bozeman is absurd, although I'm just posting it here to break Benny's brain

Succeeded. Brain broke.

**kathleenturneroverdrive** · 02-25-2021, 05:07 PM

Same here Benny. I mean, I get why our prices skyrocketed, but that's something else entirely. The next-door property is for sale for around the same price too. I would guess it's the same owner, putting both up for sale in hopes someone will take them both, scrape, and build.

I'd personally rather just get that condo in Missoula. At least it's walking distance to good ice cream. That has to be worth at least a few hundred grand, right?

**Benny Profane** · 02-25-2021, 05:32 PM

It is taking place in a world that just doubled the value of Gamestock yesterday, after all the bullshit around that company for a few weeks. And then, well, bitcoin.

**BFD** · 02-25-2021, 05:40 PM

I posted this awhile back hoping to get some Bozeman feedback.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1...4929657_zpid/?
My son bought it around 4 years ago and sold it for about twice what he paid. I think his realtor sucked. Had no idea of comparables. It is one block off main street and next to a mixed use million dollar condo building. The lot is also zoned commercial. Will be curious on what those houses sell for. The buyer was going to renovate into a short term rental.

**muted** · 02-25-2021, 05:42 PM

Originally Posted by kathleenturneroverdrive

$900+/square foot in Bozeman is absurd, although I'm just posting it here to break Benny's brain

Let me guess, the landlord bought each place for $75-120,000 about 20-30 years ago, rented them out for starting at maybe $350-$500 a month and now they go for about $1500-$1900 a month. Hasn't spent much on upgrades over the years. And today he's selling them for a total of a million plus.

Damn. Good for him. Who knows how long he/she really owned them but my scenario is possible.

**Conundrum** · 02-25-2021, 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by muted

Let me guess, the landlord bought each place for $75-120,000 about 20-30 years ago, rented them out for starting at maybe $350-$500 a month and now they go for about $1500-$1900 a month. Hasn't spent much on upgrades over the years. And today he's selling them for a total of a million plus.

Damn. Good for him. Who knows how long he/she really owned them but my scenario is possible.

Stayed at a friend's of a friend condo on the west side of Tahoe 2-3 years ago with both those dudes. Couple thousandish square feet, view of the water from the deck, access to their association dock but across the road, purchased in mid-80s for $60k. Really nice guy. Told me given the option, he'd sell it when he couldn't ski anymore, and maybe leave some of the proceeds in the will for his kids, maybe. Apparently they don't like skiing.

**Whiteroom_Guardian** · 02-25-2021, 07:18 PM

I shudder to think about the investment properties here I couldn't convince family members to buy as recent as 2015 that are now through the roof.

Same thing in Boulder CO. Tried to convince my dad to buy 3 rentals in 2008. Even as a "dumb college kid" I knew that those properties would be like printing cash. Nope. Pass.

Who wants free money, right?