Real Estate Crash thread

[Lindahl]

I know the middle class discussion has quieted down, but...

$350,000 a Year, and Just Getting By

Great article. Hits the nail on the head. Thanks!

[Kevo]

Boulder has officially stagnated in 2019- https://www.dailycamera.com/2019/12/...-stagnant/amp/

Meanwhile, Zillow is telling me my house in Golden has lost >4% of its value since July.

The high water mark I'm my neighborhood was when someone spent $75k over ask on on $650k house with a mountain view on my street over the summer ($725k closing cost). This fall, two similar houses that don't have mountain views sold on the opposite side of the street for $590k ish.

Some friends and neighbors think things are cracking in the market. All that said, my neighbor across the street is renting two bedrooms and a finished basement in his $600k house for $3650 per month, way more than covering his mortgage.

I'm also contemplating buying a vacation home in the mountains. Would love the maggot take on CB and Steamboat real estate. Have real estate agents in both places and have been looking at properties in both.

Ideally I'd like to live in Driggs, ID full time, but CB and Steamboat are both within striking distance of the front range so while I'm living here that's what I've narrowed it down to. Have recently been focused on the town of Mt CB because of the ease of short term renting.

[Iowagriz]

I'm about a week from moving into a new home in Missoula. We had it built, so of course, over budget, etc. This means the market has likely topped in Missoula and will head down from here. At least we built it as the retirement home and see no reason to have to leave it in the next 20yrs or so.

[Benny Profane]

Boulder has officially stagnated in 2019- https://www.dailycamera.com/2019/12/...-stagnant/amp/

Meanwhile, Zillow is telling me my house in Golden has lost >4% of its value since July.

The high water mark I'm my neighborhood was when someone spent $75k over ask on on $650k house with a mountain view on my street over the summer ($725k closing cost). This fall, two similar houses that don't have mountain views sold on the opposite side of the street for $590k ish.

Some friends and neighbors think things are cracking in the market. All that said, my neighbor across the street is renting two bedrooms and a finished basement in his $600k house for $3650 per month, way more than covering his mortgage.

I'm also contemplating buying a vacation home in the mountains. Would love the maggot take on CB and Steamboat real estate. Have real estate agents in both places and have been looking at properties in both.

Ideally I'd like to live in Driggs, ID full time, but CB and Steamboat are both within striking distance of the front range so while I'm living here that's what I've narrowed it down to. Have recently been focused on the town of Mt CB because of the ease of short term renting.

Well, just one example, but, I was kind of astounded that someone I know is getting 350 a night for an AirB&B room (just a room) in Summit county.

[goldenboy]

Kevo,

You see the new rules for Mt CB starting 1/1/20? Not that big of a deal or too expensive, but FYI...

[Kevo]

Kevo,

You see the new rules for Mt CB starting 1/1/20? Not that big of a deal or too expensive, but FYI...

I did.

Seems like not a big deal. Is the general vibe that mt CB will keep allowing STRs? I feel like they kinda have to in order to keep skier visits up.

[Kevo]

Also, are things holding steady up there? Have looked at some single family homes in Mt CB, Skyland and Buckhorn. Skyland and Buckhorn stuff seems to sit for a long time because a lot of Skylands doesn't allow STRs and Buckhorn is kinda inconvenient for tourists.

[goldenboy]

I can't imagine Mt CB banning ST rentals or making it too hard on them. There are a couple of subdivisions and condo buildings that don't allow it, but that's it. The whole town exists to provide rentals for the ski area...

Things are holding steady here- there just isn't that much supply. There are some spec homes and duplexes going up, but no one has put up a big new condo building, unlike the years leading up to the last recesssion. Until something fundamentally changes the supply and demand graph, I'd expect things to stay pretty similar.

As for Buckhorn and Skyland, they are definitely less convenient to short term although a lot of buyers in those locations aren't planning to do that anyway. The places that sit are probably overpriced. There were a couple of spec homes, for instance, that looked good online but in person they were just ok. Not bad, but no one felt like they needed to write an offer on the spot...

[Benny Profane]

X

[Kevo]

X

Saw that article but it didn't actually break down which areas they were talking about. It's interesting to me that on the map they show Phoenix as bigger than Atlanta. According to FRED, Phoenix has a GDP of $255 billion and Atlanta has a GDP of $397 billion.

They also show Cleveland and Charlotte, NC but not Denver nor Portland. It's hard to believe that Cleveland has a higher GDP than Denver.

...According to FRED, Cleveland has a GDP of $134 billion and Denver has a GDP of $214 billion. Portland, OR has a GDP of $164 billion.

I understand that the map references counties and not entire metro areas, but it seems like a strange analysis that won't account for metro areas that span more than one county and the map looks bunk.

[liv2ski]

^^^^^^ Pretty soon Boise will be little CA with all the transplants.

[Kevo]

I visited friends in Boise over the summer and honesty do not understand the appeal. It has all of the detriments of the CO front range but with worse access to mountains.

They keep expanding the Boise metro area and the developers are building tract housing, strip malls, chain restaurants and parking lots. Traffic is bad. Job prospects are not great. Access to the mountains is through two lane canyons that are like 60 miles long and packed with cars. McCall is unbelievably crowded. Oh, and it all has the undertones of being the second most populous Mormon hotbed in the country. I guess it has the best whitewater kayaking close to any major metro.

[Benny Profane]

But.....Bogus Basin!

[goldenboy]

^^^ That graph does a good job of showing that recessions don't necessarily crush RE values other than the '08 implosion. A few months ago "recession" seemed to be a buzzword. It hasn't happened yet and even when it does, I'm not sure that RE values will drop.

[Benny Profane]

Boomers, the meat of the market, dying in place. They built this market, and still own it. Oh, and 1.5 trillion in student debt holding back young people.

[liv2ski]

Boomers, the meat of the market, dying in place. They built this market, and still own it. Oh, and 1.5 trillion in student debt holding back young people.

Agreed, also lack of wage growth. Sure prices are up and I can't afford to buy my own house anymore so why would I list it.

[Benny Profane]

I forgot Gen Xers, many of which jumped into the housing market at absolutely the wrong time, and some could be underwater for life.

The enthusiasm to churn RE is gone. The damage to that mindset will last for years.

[RootSkier]

I visited friends in Boise over the summer and honesty do not understand the appeal. It has all of the detriments of the CO front range but with worse access to mountains.

And it's hotter.

I guess it has the best whitewater kayaking close to any major metro.

Nah, that's Seattle.

[Conundrum]

And the smugness of Boiseans is catching up to front rangers too.

[Benny Profane]

Maybe everyone from NJ is moving to Boise.

https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsr...ers-study-2019

[Conundrum]

The eight houses on my street have people from CA owned rental with WA tenants, CA owned rental CA tenants, not sure of rental owners but CA tenants, ID/GA couple (their AB&B ADU is WI tenants looking for a house), ID, CA, TX, and ID. I think there are three Idaho natives-me, my GF and the wife of the couple next door. Not that it matters. Just interesting. Five years ago it was ID, ID, ID, ID/GA (no AB&B), ID, ID, TX, ID with no rentals on the street. Don't see too many east coasters. People are cashing out hard in my neighborhood. The ID lady on the end has tried to cash out three or four times but she's greedy and asks even more than this market will bear. Me, ten years or so more of work and buying something somewhere else. ADU over the garage for us to stay in when we're in town and ours will be a rental too. Would have rather just stayed in our house but the town is changing and not for the good.

Not a big statistical sample but something I can speak to as the longest term person on the street. It's been an evolution.

[Thurgood Jenkins]

Where is the "I have realtors" thread?

With the poise of a used car salesman, some self important douchebag realtor spots off: "It's a law degree in seven days" Hee Hee Hee Haw Haw Haw

[Name Redacted]

The eight houses on my street have people from CA owned rental with WA tenants, CA owned rental CA tenants, not sure of rental owners but CA tenants, ID/GA couple (their AB&B ADU is WI tenants looking for a house), ID, CA, TX, and ID. I think there are three Idaho natives-me, my GF and the wife of the couple next door. Not that it matters. Just interesting. Five years ago it was ID, ID, ID, ID/GA (no AB&B), ID, ID, TX, ID with no rentals on the street. Don't see too many east coasters. People are cashing out hard in my neighborhood. The ID lady on the end has tried to cash out three or four times but she's greedy and asks even more than this market will bear. Me, ten years or so more of work and buying something somewhere else. ADU over the garage for us to stay in when we're in town and ours will be a rental too. Would have rather just stayed in our house but the town is changing and not for the good.

Not a big statistical sample but something I can speak to as the longest term person on the street. It's been an evolution.

Man, you really know your neighbors. I could tell you who a few of our neighbors are, but the rest are either absentees, rentals, or who knows. None of them seem bad. Everyone is from somewhere else here (except my wife who actually lived in one of the houses on our street when she was born.)
Nice thing about STRs and LTRs is if someone sucks, they are usually gone in a few days or a season. There aren't many deadbeat full timers on our block, but the few there are are far enough away to not matter to us.
Turnover is pretty high, many of the houses have come close to doubling value since 2012 (when we bought). Resort area though, so that is to be expected.

[Conundrum]

I try to know my neighbors. Makes it more of community. That feel is almost gone at least in my neighborhood so I'm guessing I won't know them much in future years except the two bordering my property. Everything else is renters that seem to come and go every 2-6 months.

[Toadman]

HOA in my 'hood has an annual shin dig at the end of summer. Plus they all have dogs. I can't hardly remember my neighbor's names. But the dog's names, no problem. Most on my street, myself included are from King County, WA. The rest are from CA, and two couples are Oregonians. Total of 26 houses. But that's Bend for you. Everyone is from somewhere else it seems. The retired folk come and go, and have no clue what day it is. Trips to see the grand kids. Trips to HA or to Mexico, Europe, etc. Must be nice to be retired with money to travel. Maybe some day....